Thought I would share what my Elliott wave software has found on the $XAU index (explanation to follow):

^XAU20Jul16

Please refer to the above chart as I explain. I will try to be as brief as possible…
So we have had a five wave move from Jan 19 to May 17 and a three wave correction from May 17 to May 25. By the rules of Elliott Waves, if this set up occurs, then five waves must follow whether it is an impulsive or corrective wave. As you can see above, starting at May 25 to present, we have had only three complete waves, the fourth is currently in progress.

Another basic tenant of Elliott waves is that wave 4 cannot cross into wave 2 territory. If you then put these two ideas together then the index has tipped its hand. It is telling us that the current decline cannot (under the as-labeled analysis) fall below 95. One more subtly is that when dealing with commodities like gold or silver, there can be a very slight overlap. Having said all that, it becomes obvious that a good place to buy might be in the upper to mid nineties with a tight stop a little below 95, say 93.

(Refer to the wave starting May 25 to present). This should complete wave four and start wave five. Since wave three is longer than wave one, wave five will most likely be equal in duration and amplitude to wave one. This would be about a 15 point gain and put the index somewhere over 110.

If indeed we fall below 93, then the wave would have been mislabeled and would most likely lead to a much deeper retrace. Cheers!

EDIT: I should probably also add that this would complete the larger waves 1-2-3 and 4 would then start, which would be a very significant correction (probably the one everyone is looking for right now).