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Adamarla
You seem gleeful at the prospect of the Poor Goldbugs being Slaughtered once again
Not so fast
I challenge your chart
For a 16 year chart the LOG format is preferable…after all its all about % moves NOT Numerical moves
Interesting that there is a completely different Resistance line right here
BUT Gold has taken out 2 Very important resistance lines already
So 1300 is resistance from the first two lows back in 2001 and 2003…Pretty cool
BUT 1200 is very strong support now
We are playing Ping Pong between support and resistance
I believe ultimately we will resolve this to the upside but obviously that is just because I am a Goldbug
waiting to be slaughtered
🙂
ALSO: Please Note the 75 Week EMA !!
This is the signature Moving Average for Gold
ONLY one time has there been a brief whiplash (2008) but otherwise IF Gold is above this MA it is in a long stron Bullish Posture…this MA supported Gold from 2001 to 2012 (with the one exception) and acted as strong resistance until January this year.
NOW it has once again turned UP as it did in 2001 and is supporting Gold once again
I rest my case
No one is going to get slaughtered if we test $900 unless you are using too much leverage. I think you;re putting up a straw man to attack!!
This is a ridiculous comment
A drop of $400 in Gold from here is a slaughter !
For People holding Physical losing 30% is massive…not to mention the Miners which would likely lose 75% or more in this scenario. That doesn’t mean it cant happen …But if it did that’s a Slaughter.
What about this Log Chart ?
Do you acknowledge the strong support at 1200 and the support of this moving average ?
Or do you dismiss it out of hand ?
Please answer this honest question.
Have you participated at all in this Massive run up in PM Stocks ?
This question is for CarolynSue as well ?
It is one thing for a trader like Mark to have made massive gains on the upside to flip to a bearish posture
It is quite another for someone who has been bearish all the way up to be continuing to post bearish ideas
Its a matter of credibility IMO .
On the log chart as well you have drawn a broken trendline and a backtest. That to me is *potentially* bearish, unless the trendline is taken out and Gold closes above it.
I personally don’t put too much emphasis on individual moving averages as this is an example of what people in the quant world call “overfitting”. I think trend-lines and channels are more important as they don’t have any parameters (such as the moving average lookback).
I agree that there is potential support at 1150-1200 if the bottom is in.
None of this needs to be a religious discussion. If you (or I) are under the illusion we know exactly what is going to happen, then you are (or I am) simply deluding ourselves.
With all due respect I have to admit I just don’t understand why you should get so upset every time a potentially bearish chart is posted. Its not like a decline is impossible. You have to respect the market and all its possibilities.
Finally, I don’t think there is any credibility issue in calling a bear market rally. This market has rallied nicely – and the miners have rallied even more – but in my OPINION it hasn’t proved anything about the long-term bull market resuming just yet. I don’t claim to know this for a FACT.
I don’t know why what I say pisses you off so much…..what’s wrong with some bearish commentary from time to time–I could gripe about your adulation with all the gung ho bullish comments–calling them visionaries etc, etc so why not throw in a few bearish comments….I believe in Socrates…I take everything–EVERYTHING –he says seriously..why don’t you go and harass Chuck for awhile instead of trying to prove how wrong I have been
Its a debate .
Eternal debate
There’s Bulls and there’s Bears and most of us change sides from time to time.
Chuck’s very well presented bear case is prominent on the top of the sidebar.
That analysis cannot be discounted
Not all commentary is this well presented .
I’m really, really, really not interested in playing your game of GOTHCA!!!
Adamarla, You aren’t going to win in Fully’s game of ‘GOTCHA” and he is steaming about what we are saying today and is determined to put us in our places!
Btw, remember the breakline I once drew? We are still below it.
Would you put up that chart again? Thank you
If a Breakline were such a valuable idea it would not be relegated to the obscure.
We have a lot of experienced TA people here and no one had ever heard of this prior to your post.