Loading ...USD and Gold Cycle Updates
Sorry for all the posts on the USD but it is Key to all CRB trades going forward.
First chart shows a 1 year plus chart of the USD and its last 4 Intermediate Cycle (IC) trend lines (4-5 months on ave). Note that the IC from Dec 2014 did not break the IC trend line (bullish) but the last two did. Also note what happens when an IC trend line fails (We have seen this with Gold over and over the past 4 years).
Well the USD IC Trend line failed yesterday and is dropping again today. Unless this is a head fake FBO, watch out below as we are only in week 6 (USD ICs last 18-23 weeks low to low on average).
The next chart is for Gold that I sent to Norvast late last night. I have mentioned a couple of times that the Gold Cycle counts have me a bit muddled. This could very well be the TC2 High on day 20 which would be the norm but I don’t see how Gold will drop with the USD going down. So if my cycle analysis on the dollar is correct, perhaps have already made a TC2 low 6 days ago.
What if we are now in day 6 of TC3 rather than day 20 of TC2 (normally see a TC high near day 20 in TC2). Note that the Fork is not technically correct but I use this approach out of IC Lows and find that it channels price fairly accurately into Highs. If this is TC3 and gold closes above 1158 today we may well see a test of 1190-1200 by late next week
Very important charts Surf!
The next important dates are 16-17 Oct (B=17 Oct, SD=15 Oct) and 05-06 Nov (B=06 Nov, SD=07 Nov)
It appears now that our original cycle analysis may have been incorrect and GOLD will continue to rise into the 16-17 Oct date HIGH then fall into the 05-06 Nov date LOW
I remain fully invested in the AUS miners at the moment and will do so until our “bell-weather” stock NovaGold (NG) turn down.
Moving forward the key date is the 18-21 Dec (B=18 Dec, SD=21 Dec) which I still suspect will be a LOW and complete this current IC
If you are correct about the USD (along with Mr Savage I might add) then GOLD will lead other commodities out of the BEAR (a complete IC earlier than expected) and be good for AUS
fyi.. i think your fork is drawn correctly.. i am following a very similar fork (though drawn with exact points); as well as a steeper fork.. the fork you have lacks verification.. but i cant discard it.. try and get with you later on that.
with regard to the usd.. im still using the same longer term down fork as i posted some time ago.. nothing has changed