NV Gold (nvx.v)

From .20 to .74 this last month, most of which was last week.
Confusion with NVO and its rumored inclusion in gdxj ? Or just coincidence?

Bottom Zinn (ABX) or snot?

could have added to prior posts, but pretty long
just an fyi here …. I don’t generally track individual miners except for information content

25 mins ago·

Is Barrick Gold Bottoming?

By Avi Gilburt

We have seen downgrade after downgrade on Barrick Gold (ABX) for years. Many keep looking lower and lower, with some even considering that this stalwart in the miners’ complex may even go out of business due to its debt load.

However, back in 2015, it was one of the first miners to bottom. In fact, when we saw the potential bottoming of ABX in 2015, we actually opened our EWT Miners Portfolio in September of 2015, and the ABX was one of our first buys.

But after it hit its high over a year and a half ago, it has been within a corrective pullback from the August 2016 high. And, since that time, it has seen sentiment about the company drop consistently.

In the last quarter of 2017, when the GDX broke its upper support in September, I noted that the ABX has a set up to take it down to the 11-12 region, and we were in the 16-17 region at the time. And, if you note the “buy zone” on the chart below, it was placed there in September of 2017.

Currently, ABX has struck our downside target but has not confirmed that the downside is yet complete. We are now just below the resistance we were looking for it to hit its head upon in the 12.50 region. As long as ABX remains below this resistance, it has a downside set up to drop towards the 10.80-11 region to complete this long-term pullback in which it has been mired since mid-2016.

However, if we see strength through the 12.50 region, and it can continue to rally up towards the 13.50-14 region in the next few weeks, then it provides us with a strong indication that the lows for ABX have been seen, and we are likely setting up the next major bullish move for ABX for the rest of 2018.

But, under either circumstance, I expect the ABX to strike a significant bottom in the near term, and see it resume its bull market run into the end of the year.

Lastly, since ABX has been a major drag on the GDX of late, I believe that the GDX will finally begin its bullish pattern once the ABX finds a bottom and is no longer a drag on the GDX.



Horvat $

A day or two ago, there was a post asking whether $ had made double bottom.
I quipped, in the comments, that anyone applying EW would immediately reason … probably not.
I didn’t elaborate at the time, because I didn’t have a chart handy.
Today I do, thanks to Gregor.


I’ll just add here … that there is often a lot of hand wringing and vacillation by those using chartology, based on patterns that look plausible. Lots of could be’s out there, folks.
My “4D” charting is hard to spell out, but I can often pick out the valid EW counts using it. This was one such case.

And its why GDX and dollar sensitive stuff (including SPX, probably) just began their bounces a short time ago.
Should be good for at least a couple of weeks.
Then … it will helmet time again. Or bomb shelter perhaps.

GDX EW (Hulse & Pizzuti)

I’m just the messenger here.
And I won’t endorse this count beyond a decline into spring, for now. (I’m not calling for an impulse as yet.)
See also Mark Arbeter’s remarks on GLD today.


Sam’s EW on gold

FYI … this is tied to his long term wave count for the dollar.

Short term, he sees — as does my work — a short term PM recovery as the dollar completes its (initial) decline.
Dollar rally into spring, as PMs get pummeled some more.

Then the big rally gets underway, as the dollar craters again, and the everything bubble goes into blow off mode this summer, fall and winter.

Ben Hunt from 2013 …. How Gold Lost Its Luster

the always excellent Ben Hunt …. for the literary types … no charts here

“To market participants in 2013 gold means lack of confidence in money, and their behavior in buying and selling gold similarly reflects this meaning. Buying gold today is a statement that you believe that global economic events may spiral out of the control of Central Bankers. It is insurance against some sort of massive monetary policy mistake that cannot be fixed without re-conceptualizing the global economic regime – hyperinflation in a developed nation, the collapse of the Euro, something like that – not an expression of a commonly shared belief in some inherent value of gold.

The source of gold’s meaning, whether you are a market participant in 1895 or 2013, comes from the Common Knowledge regarding gold. J.P. Morgan said that gold is money, and he was right, but only because at the time he said it everyone believed that everyone believed that gold is money. Today that same statement is wrong, but only because no one believes that everyone believes that gold is money.”


Sam’s latest

Here is the bearish count from Sam as of this weekend.

My view differs somewhat from Sam’s as noted below.
I have red b (of orange b) as the now completed triangle pattern since Dec 2016, and now red c down that will end orange b.

Sven does Chartology


Doesn’t get much more elegant or ominous than this ….

Blockchain is Obsolete … and so is BTC (Maloney)



“One thing that is certain, however, is that this is just the beginning of the ECB’s balance sheet woes: as we showed on Wednesday using UBS data, the ECB now holds no less than 26 “fallen angel” equivalent bonds, amounting to €18 billion in notional exposure; both numbers are set to soar when the next recession hits and the bulk of the ECB’s holdings shift down in quality, leaving Mario Draghi and his henchmen dealing with countless credit committees in bankruptcy court as the European central bank finds itself the post-reorg equity holder of countless European companies.”


pdl: My work says that while EUFN has been on a sell for five months or so, it has only gone sideways and that another LT dip buy is fast approaching. (And monthly williams has yet to drop even below 90! So the technicals are far from shouting disaster as I view them.)