Goldtent TA Paradise
GDX 8min shows we are in 4th wave of a larger 2. Once the 5th wave completes we can expect to move up in the heart of the 3rd wave. Look for a break out from the down trend channel but be warned that the last 5th wave down might be short and truncated.
The daily GDX chart shows the plan and expected target ranges for the moves. We are in the long term buy area for mining stocks and we could fall a bit further from here. But this is a good buying opportunity right now
An encourging chart is silver. It has not even touched its lower trend line on this correction. The chart remains bullish for now.
Edit …Charts removed…these charts are from Avi Gilbert’s Private site and not to be posted here
It is unfair to Paid Subscribers of other sites for anyone to post work that is not in the public domain
Charts from elliotwavetrader.net
Gold is on day 23 and has entered the early part of my Timing Band to find a Trading Cycle Low here. The USD is on day 16 and may have found a Trading Cycle Top today.
Added: A second, longer term Gold chart showing that Gold found support right where you would expect it to and right near the 6 month mark out of the Dec 2015 Bear Market low.
It is possible that if my cycle analysis on the USD is wrong and that it bounces hard out of its expected TC Low next week, that Gold could have one more Trading Cycle that rolls over quickly and we could move into a lower IC Low. In my experience, however, Bull Markets rarely have failed breakouts.
Stocks have made a bullish move out of their recent low but I want to see a few more days of price action to ensure we break through a couple of Red resistance lines on my first chart.
Bottom line, is that Surf does not care much for MegaPhone patterns at all.
Re-posting my $NYA chart from a month ago and S&P chart from last week. Again, keep an open mind here….this remains a bullish a set up near term. I suspect the broadening pattern on the S&P will break out to fresh highs and sucker the little guy back in the markets. The problem will be that the NYSE composite wont confirm the breakout and in fact may play out as a Wolfe Wave double top….which will be my cue to take long profits (possibly in everything) and position myself for a hard turndown that may last until after the election. Looking at July timeframe for this to play out.
50% retraces to test broken resistance as new support is healthy in a sustainable uptrend. A/D supports the bullish flag and it appears a new channel is becoming established on many of my charts. The old one was so steep it was unrealistic to be sustainable.
No annotations needed on the weekly against the 34MA.
So I’m going through may charts today and watching all my key fibs and 50MAs hold beautifully….so far. In fact, if you’re willing to take a step back in view, this is very healthy structure and exactly what any long term investor would want to see out of the PM sector. EXK daily and weekly charts show this very well. Note on the weekly chart the bounces between the fibs EXACTLY as you would expect in a long term bullish move. If there were no backtesting within the fib levels and retesting of resistance as new support, that would give me greater concern that the new trend was unsustainable. This trend is gaining all the hallmarks of a sustainable trend for the long haul. My average cost on EXK is less than $1.40 and I’ve sold none….in fact, I’ve sold none of my PMs all year and have been simply adding on dips like we’ve been seeing over the past few days. Yes, I didn’t buy all the dips on the exact swing low but no one can. I felt lucky to have added more yesterday at $3.15. I hope not too many of you got your pockets picked on the initial takedown this morning.
This is what you do in an uptrend…..you buy your initial position at a good risk/reward low as the trend is turning and then add on the dips. Guys like Gary Savage would have you believe a strategy like this is moronic. There are nothing wrong with these charts technically….as well as so many others across the PM complex….including the GDX and HUI which I will post later.
A chart from an update earlier today. GDX broke down from a bear flag. MA 50’s are actually very key support considering it coincides with long-term support (not shown) as well. More support lower @ 19 to 20.
PS: Previous post trashed. No use having there if it’s only use (after all deletions) is to admonish a new poster who did not know the rancid history of the situation.
I have posted lots of ratio charts on SM, COMM, PM etc before and really like them so since GOLD´s are up for debate I though I just might jump in with my take. As I see it, it is in no way obvious that GOLD is or is going to underperform WTIC or CRB at this stage.
When using ratio charts at major inflection points, my experience is that one normally needs to use a longer perspective than a few years.
Back in early Dec, this was one of my main charts I considered when predicting that gold would move from $1080 to over $1200. I obviously underestimated the move but the chart structure still worked. I have updated it with an additional fork extension and I believe it is telling us that the gold pullback is nearly complete. It could still drop a little bit and maintain the chart integrity. What you will notice is how these reversals never turn on a dime and typically take a week or more of frustrating churn before the swing low or high is in place. I know it’s odd using an inverse ETF to look at gold’s movements but so far it’s been working well for me.
10am Update – DGLD just tagged my resistance line. Let’s see if that’s it for gold’s correction.
For example, gold vs. oil is getting hammered. That is not a good thing for fuel intensive gold mining operations. All items are still up trending on the big picture but gold-oil is in trouble. Also, gold-silver was in trouble, unsurprisingly during the big silver surge that led the mining bull thrust.
If gold-silver breaks down we could get the inflation phase where most boats are lifted and gold stocks would be nothing special. If it rises again, batten down the hatches but be prepared to focus on gold mining almost exclusively amid the wreckage. That’s the theory, anyway. Okay, gotta go do some work now. 🙂
Gary …Last night you posted some Ratio Charts Comparing Gold with Some Stock Indices
That is Apples ( Stock) and Oranges ( a Commodity)
How about we look at $HUI:$SPX to see what is really happening
For Ratio Chart Lovers and Fractal Observers…this is Interesting !
Also your assumption that IF SOX rises PMs will Fall needs a look
Answer…..sometimes yes but since 2003 they are mostly positively Co Related
Now we have Apples and Apples to consider
Looking at the USD and thinking that maybe EMA30 weekly is our last outpost. The pattern for EMA30 on this chart I think looks quite similar to those that have been used by Plunger to show a stock in decline/starting its decline. So just maybe we can have some faith in the EMA30 weekly here, now at circa 96. Anyone is very free to tell me this is not the case…