Goldtent TA Paradise
Since we seem to be posting this company externally now I thought I´d post my take here also.
As I see it, this very good company has now BO out of a massive cup & handle I have been following and will likely not pull back very much because of that. And as you can see on the chart, the thin zone coming up after a decent probable BT is rather nice.
Looking more than good.
Gotta love their name and Logo
Spock Knows Rocks
This one went from circa 10 cents to circa $1.10 in the first half of last year …then was cut in half to 50 cents
which was exactly a 62.8% Fibo retrace hit and now…kaboom.
Which is why the Vulcan holds his rocks during a rock slide .
One of the first I have seen break out to new Highs !
Like Popcorn..one by one they pop on good drills.
Ahhh BUT its too late to buy right ? I mean how much more can you expect from a Pet Rock ?
As I’ve got a good wedge invested in this, I’m watching the chart closely. Ignoring short term ups and downs, which can be huge, I’ve been trying to get a handle on what to look for when it tops. It could plummet from here and it could go up over 500%, but based on history what’s reasonable ? I’m ignoring fundamentals, news flow etc, etc, just looking at the weekly chart back to 2000. In 2003, the stock rose rapidly to 50 Cents. It did the same last year. Taking that as our starting point, in mid 2003 it took out a zone of resistance just below $2, it did the same a few weeks ago. Last time it rose to $6 in the following 6 months, with a spike to about $9 (before rising further in subsequent years).
Do the indicators support more upward moves in the price ? Well, just looking at a few – the RSI spent 8 months above 70 last time, that would give us until about June. The MACD hit at least 1.0 last time, we’re currently on about 0.5, and the TSI hit 75 – we’re on about 53 just now.
IF history is a guide, it might be reasonable to expect some sort of peak in the early Summer. Of course, we’re in a very different world now, compared to 2003…
Edit : Also bullish is the approaching 50wma/200wma crossover.
I have found many articles as such that the gov’t does not like trading in this vehicle. Some ugly stories of the beatings they give you when they find you. Just a heads up for some .
Looks like 1214 is a bit of resistance, but a small handle has formed on a large cup. If broken through, target would be 1300.
Just a thought of our exit plan.
The last retracement was deeper yet we took a calculated risk last Dec 22 to double our core (we informed a veteran of this site on 23).
Time is more important than price.
From London fixing:
Low 17dec15. $1049.4
High 2Aug16. $1363.75
Assumed 15Dec16 was low @ $1125.7
The 363 days cycle had bullish 0.638 right translation.
If this year fractals last, the cycle may extend 1.25X (next fibo level 0.78/current 0.628) to 454 days ending about 3 March 2018, giving it a right translation around end of summer, 22 September (454×0.618).
By coincidence, Armstrong’s 2.15y (8.6yrs/4) lesser cycle from 17 Dec 2015, would be met.
I have been BEARISH WTIC and BULLISH RUSS (because RUSS/RUSL reflects the price of crude); however, I am NOT seeing the bearishness I expected. The talk of “OPEC CUTS” hitting the news are reflecting in the charts…
OBV on WTIC is breaking out; also, could have a hidden divergence because the price action refuses to go down and is stabilizing; the slope is heading down appearing to reset for another leg up…
Check out the OBV breaking down…
I have this on a tight leash and will sell on any break down…
OK….No Politics ( unless I say so) 🙂
Obviously this is an Historic time in the USA
Trump is President . There are Massive Demonstrations ( mostly peaceful for the time being) against him.
Many are calling for a Coupe as he is considered Illegitimate.
This Thread will NOT discuss whether you support him or not .
But I think it is constructive to discuss what will happen going forward and how you think it will effect the PM Market vis a vis particularly the Dollar .
1…Will His Admin be Paralysed due to the huge popular uprising ?
2…Will the National Guard / Police / Military support / protect him
3….Will he be Shot / Impeached ?
4…Will these demonstrations wane in short order ?
5….Will he Prevail and proceed with his Policies.
6…What Policies will affect the Dollar and therefore Gold and how so?
Ok…please have at it.
Shorted biotech and went long oil and gas production index last Friday. Cash now 70%.
The PM long positions have been closed out for profits. Looking to re-enter PM sector longs at the next daily cycle low for $GOLD, which should be either 26th January or 1st February, although the miners normally bottom before the metals. Not shorting the sector, as its in a bull market.
For the PM rock portfolio sitting tight through the daily cycle correction, as the weekly cycle is up into March, after the yearly cycle low last month.
$USD is forming a 15 year cycle top here, maybe one more daily cycle push. Expect a multi-year decline into 2023, to make new lows, at the bottom of the 15 year cycle. Expect left translated cycles going forward, into a bear market. This will be positive for the metals and commodities in general.
I have tried to elaborate quite extensively on my take for where I think the US dollar is right now and where I think it is going. The posts linked below summarizes this take:
In this post I thought I´d try to do the same for the Euro and post my own roadmaps. The charts do not show anything else but price action as that is my only focus here. This because, as I see it, at inflection points, meaning large and small, indicators and other such stuff can be missleading while pure price action is just that, pure. Note that I am not even including the huge divergences we have now which are in favour of my US dollar case plus this $EURUSD/$XEU case.
I was a loud advocate a while ago for the gigantic, possible h&s that is pretty obvious on the $EURUSD. But that formation I have dropped some time ago as I have come to the conclusion that it is not valid.
As the Euro makes up a whopping circa 57 % of the old US dollar index DXY/USDX (ticker $USD) the charts for this one and for $EURUSD should be very similar. And they are, but in no way identical, which many assume and which of course then produces incorrect charts and incorrect assumptions. Notable is that the charts for $XEU and $EURUSD are absolutely identical. And the $XEU has a longer history for some odd reason.
In order to really understand where $EURUSD is right now and where it is going I think one needs to start with the very long term chart. And, since SC do not have data for it back when it was only a measure of account and called the ECU, we can look at other vehicles that seem to follow it quite closely in order to try to understand its larger pattern. One of those happens to be the $HUI, as I see it.
The monthly chart below shows $HUI with $EURUSD (orange) as overlay. Here it is pretty clear to me that both can be viewed as having a gigantic upsloping channel.
The above chart shows that it makes sense looking at the very long term $EURUSD chart as channel. (I have posted that as an option for $USD also but that is not my favoured formation for $USD.). Applying this view on the $EURUSD chart itself plus adding the other things I see gives me the monthly chart below. There is a lot going on on the chart below. I will not describe it all in detail here as it would take to long. But, in short, we have a gigantic channel (black) with a massive other channel (blue) within this larger black channel. We have a very, very important what I believe is a FBO below this gigantic black channel in the form of a beautiful fat bullish engulfing (red). I have also added where I think we are going in the form of the grey boxes and a probable apex hit in purple; that is, I am looking for reverse symmetry after we BO of the DB I am also looking for (green).
Also note that the purple apex hit will produce a very nice around the apex move for the massive triangle made up from the upper purple line and the upper thicker blue line.
Now when we, as I think, clearly can see above what is going on regarding the larger picture we can zoom in on the daily, below. On the daily we can see that the fat bullish engulfing on the monthly above is in fact a very nice looking inverse h&s in the making (blue). And this one I have posted on before.
This inverse h&s will give it the energy to climb back up over the now resistance line of the gigantic channel and make it into a support line again, and this will confirm the FBO I am looking for.
And to finish off here, below we see a couple of vehicles overlayed on GLD which normally follows gold pretty well, or the other way around, or leads, or any which way one wants to look at it. Here we can see that $XEU is pretty strong at the moment and as I see it, it is showing the way.
So, I am looking for the $EURUSD/$XEU to go higher from here. Much higher. At some point during the coming years it will have a serious pull back, but that time is not now as I see it.
I could also write about the fundamentals that I think will drive my chartology take but that would take too long. And one does not need to look into that either. This post and the linked posts above are more than enough in order to see and get the picture I think. But that is how I see it.
The planet is long the US dollar in a big way it seems and is about to get its head handed to it, as I see it. Let´s just hope most take a long time to switch side so we get a long squeeze+covering rally for the history books.
When you have some time How about a post for us to hang on the sidebar detailing how you day trade the Kamikazi’s
Include your preferred method as of now which is based on a lot of trial and error here at the tent over the last 2.5 years.
Indicators / Moving averages , chartology patterns divergences and more . What combination of TA voodoo do you use to battle these dragons and what time frames do you trade exactly ?
Eagle was one of the first to post here ..seems like a long time ago …but only 2.5 years. Early on he was often working and posting for himself and maybe a half dozen lurkers. He calls this Momentum trading. he is also a master of Divergences, Wanna get a headache fast…study these things …LOL
You too can learn to day trade these wild things…much more dangerous and exciting than poker or darts. You don’t need to go to the casino or legion …just play the worlds most fascinating and dangerous real life game with the calculated gambling techniques Eagle shares with you daily .
Picture Eagle Seagle flyng low over Land and Water searching for Fish and Rodents whatever morsels he can scavenge
Sometimes he’s the Predator and Sometime the Prey .But net net he is thriving
Watch and learn from the Eagle …and no he doesn’t charge. He hones his craft here and has been trading very nicely thank you.
The only thing Eagle asks in return is that his students refrain from fighting in class during trading hours, He doesn’t like distractions 🙂
Vote at the Poll on the sidebar..scroll down
Here are a couple scenarios I’m watching in NAK. Wondering what kind of reaction happens at that S/R rail that looks in between $3-3.25 region. A lot of hot money in this so I’m cautious but it has shown the ability to rip in the past and keep ripping. A replication of the 2003 move would get in the $7 range. GL All
Selling On Strength at close of friday
You all know we mostly post our own charts here and mostly appreciate the original thinking and studies by our own unique TA Analysts . We don’t want to clutter the site with outside work that can be accessed at any number of gold sites, many of which are permabull sites.
However Once in a while someone outside of our Tent post something very instructive.
This is such an article IMO. ( Caveat : this author can be categorized as a permabull )
Reverse Divergence …Thanks Eagle. This one can be hard to wrap your head around but should be in your toolkit
If anybody has a link to other important concepts please post them