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Just topped this up yesterday not a big holding but a nice 50% profit. This is why we buy these smaller companies 🙂
In my last gold analysis post, I proposed bullish and bearish near term targets for gold:
Bearish potential target: $1145 at bottom line of blue pitchfork…
Bullish potential target: $1250 to resistance at bottom line of black pitchfork…
based on this chart from mid-March:
Gold has moved up and has therefore made a kind of head and shoulders pattern with the shoulders both at the lower line of the black pitchfork trading structure.
So the bearish target of $1145 is still in play (using the original chart), despite the bullish move over the past week or so:
In my view (updated chart), a strong move over $1250-1260 to get the price action clearly into the black fork is needed to be bullish at all.
This is what it looks like today:
Current price action is in no man’s land in my view:
I posted yesterday that we now have a BO on $GOLD over the neckline for the quite large inverse h&s:
Many though seems to be occupied with the upper trend line for $GOLD, a line many now sees (saw) as a resistance line, forming a large triangle with the support line, the latter not in the charts below. I do not think this ex resistance line had very much importance really compared to the neckline for my inverse h&s, but for the ones that do think that I just want to point out that $GOLD also did take out that resistance line yesterday. On Stockcharts that is, different services show slightly different charts.
The thin black line on the two charts below represents that resistance line, now support line. To the left is a candle chart and to the right is a line chart, otherwise the charts are identical, nothing is altered on the line chart. Below you can see that we have BO on both charts.
I used the closing prices on the candle chart and as you can see, that line was touched two times the last few weeks. Then I just changed it to a line chart and the thin black trend line fit perfectly still.
So, the move yesterday not only took out the neckline for the inverse h&s, it also took out the resistance line which many have focused on. Done.
And yes, the US dollar BO and down on multiple charts yesterday too, as posted.
We are on track, as I see it.
Miners do not always lead before metals move. There are plenty of examples for this.
Looking at the silver-gold-ratio (SGR), it looks to me like silver will take the lead from gold from here.
IF gold fails to break out of its (usually bullish) symmetrical triangle, it will no doubt be accompanied by the dollar breaking out of it’s symmetrical triangle. If the dollar were to rise to the 120 target I’ve heard banded about, that would (in very simple terms) equate to gold in dollars being priced 20% lower. That would put it back in the $1050-$1100 ballpark.
I’m currently 70/30 in favour of gold up/dollar down (given what’s going on in Europe and the rest of the world). Sometimes feels like I’m frozen to the spot as a pair of headlights move towards me at 100 mph. These 2 charts are probably all you need to watch right now, and we’re getting closer and closer to a resolution with every passing day. If the dollar breaks up and gold doesn’t do the same (as some suggest it might), this could end badly for gold/silver and the miners. A rapid exit could be needed. The upside would be another brilliant entry point when the dust settles. Every cloud has a silver (and gold) lining. Stay nimble Goldtenters 😉
I tend to believe to see a BULL FLAG on the USD-JPY. It may take some time before it breaks out. See chart with $GOLD plotted in as well expected scenario. Yesterday USDJPY made a perfect 50%FIB-retrace as well has support from several trendlines.
Not only this chart but many other – either individual PM-stocks, indices and even $GOLD- I cannot see the bull. Yes, All will go some higher but in the end there will be no higher high. It still remains in a LT BEAR TREND as of 2011. The bear is not finished yet … when? That might even take some years. I will trade only swings until end of this years and then maybe, maybe, maybe I will get back in PM-stocks. I mention this as followers understand my point of view as for related future posts.
To the BULLS … go get them and Good luck as you will need it IMO.