Trader Dan Long Term Gold Charts

dn2

dn1

Rumour has it Trader Dan is fed up with virulent attacks from the Gold Bull Zealots
and is going to go to a Private pay site

IMO His stuff is a necessity for traders !

Pathetic that he is attacked mercilessly for giving his honest views on PMs
He was once the darling of the PM Community much like Rambus was before the Bull turned to bear .

Now they Shoot the messengers >

sheesh

Weekly View of Gold
http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2014/11/weekly-view-of-gold.html

Increase in JNUG Volume

Does this mean anything?

jnug_inflection_point_pencil

Have ben following this site after a couple of year hiatus. Using google charts.

Benny

Probably the best ta forum on the net is the chartology forum at rambus site

I hope I don’t get in trouble for posting this here but
Matrix did post here for a while so here goes
this post from fullgoldcrown to a question about the 4 horsemen indicators
I have been using this technique with success and would like to share it at
this interesting public site .
here is the post from the chartology forum ”

“Before Matrix “Retired” he left us one of the keys to his Very Successful Trading Career
He was a professional Currency Trader .

The 4 horsemen consist of the following Indicators :

1…TSI Tweaked Settings (Turns fast and gives a heads up but whipsaws)
2…TSI Standard Settings
3…MACD Tweaked Settings (Turns fast and gives a heads up but whipsaws)
4…MACD Standard Settings

The “Rider” is the TRIX (that last indicator to turn…for stronger confirmation of the trend)

Here they are on the Gold Daily Chart

gold-1

4 Horsemen and Their Rider ( as reviewed by Sir Classact)

Note Use only Daily Charts

1. enter one position when all 4 horsemen have crossed up
2. add another position when TRIX crosses
3. add further positions with positive price action with ALL 4 plus TRIX pointing north
4. do not add any more positions if the tweakers have crossed down
5. exit all positions when all 4 horsemen have crossed down
6. TRIX crossing down is final confirmation to stay clear of the trade until all 4 horsemen have crossed back up

TRIX always lags the other 4. it smooths out the noise. the way I use it:

also this is a “trend” following system….at least medium term…for a week or more.

not really suited to short term trading less than a week ”

For the budding gold miner bulls – some unfinished business

sc

chart self explanatory

Anatomy of a HUI Flag

hui

Rambus’ Chart

if

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too:
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim,
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same:.
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build’em up with worn-out tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings,
And never breathe a word about your loss:
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on!”

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much:
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

Rudyard Kipling

gld

GDM DAILY MOMENTUM UPDATE…

GDM DAILY

Gary Tanasian : Notes from the Rabbit Hole

Gold Sector Review

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-sector-review

Stole a Rambus Dollar Chart for the good lurkers and posters at Goldtent

DOLLAR

JJG

jjgbreakoutofbullishwedgenov12

GDX and GLD Hourly

gdx dIAMOND

gld

GDX 15 Trading Chart…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=20&id=p21158546223&a=365339092&listNum=1

Rambus Long Term Gold Chart

Notice the Price objective

gold

I personally cannot see $640 Gold BUT

I also could not see $18 Silver 2 short years ago when Rambus Posted this Chart

Silver was about $30

SILVER

less than two short years later this target was met and now we have seen $15 silver

sheesh

Ah $900 a more realistic target in this chartology masterpiece

gold1

None of the major gold miners are profitable – NONE!

the big con of the century….have been sold a lie.

this is what the pm mining promoters will NOT tell you. the miners are “oversold” for a reason. This is the reason:
they are all burning cash reserves and many like, ABX, have large debts on the books. They are ALL cash flow negative businesses, burning cash at spot price. Who invests in such a business model…a fool and his money.

20130707_gold_0

And now spot price is well below that level on the chart.

Bottom line: The whole industry is in SERIOUS trouble.

As for the juniors and explorers….road kill.

VIX–just an observation….

vix

Trader Dan

Another Eureka Moment for the Gold Bugs

The internet is breathlessly ablaze over a story detailing UBS and its plan to settle allegations over details concerning its precious metals trading. It seems like Christmas has come early in the world of gold conspiracy world.

Yet, this has an eerie quality about it once more. Why do I say that? Simple – because the entire claim of the Gold is Always Manipulated All The Time crowd ( GIAMATT) is exactly as articulated in the Paul Craig Roberts’s article which I refuted in a previous post earlier in the day today. And what is that?

In his own words. Mr. Roberts claims that the big banks ( whom he refers to as ‘agents of the Fed’ ) are guilty of illegal activity to suppress the price of gold and discredit it. They do this by selling unlimited amounts of paper gold contracts at the Comex ( the scene of the crime according to him and those who view his pronouncements as gospel). The reason they do this is very clearly laid out –

“Eric, it’s clear, this is the Federal Reserve protecting the value of the dollar from quantitative easing and the massive increase in the supply of dollars and dollar-denominated debt.

This is exactly the theme that the gold price suppression scheme advocates have been claiming for years now. Those of you who remember my writings from the earlier days when gold was actually in a bull market, know that I was once a proponent of this theory. At the time, the US Dollar was sinking into oblivion and was threatening a major collapse on the price charts. Gold is the Anti-Dollar so it made perfect sense to me to give support to this view. After all, the feds have stepped into the foreign exchange markets from time to time to address currency valuations as well as form a Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund known more commonly as the Plunge Protection Team.

However, I parted ways with some of the my former ‘friends’ over this when the fundamentals behind gold’s move higher began to deteriorate and the bull market ended and a new bear market began. There was no longer any reason whatsoever for the feds to try to suppress the rise in the price of gold ( something which they failed to do by the way when the price hit $1900 before finally topping out for good).

Here is a series of questions that none of the gold price suppression scheme advocates will deal with honestly? Why is the Dollar no longer falling against nearly every single currency in the world? Why is the price of nearly every single commodity falling? Why is the TIPs Spread falling? Why is the Velocity of Money falling? Why are the Central Banks desperately trying to fight off Deflationary pressures and longing for their target of 2% inflation and failing to meet it? Why can anyone expect gold to be moving higher in a deflationary environment in which the price of most commodities, especially energy prices, continue to fall?

Keep in mind that none other than Jim Sinclair had written quite elegantly many years earlier about what he correctly termed the FIVE PILLARS of a BULL MARKET in Gold.

Among those are two key pillars and I quote:
1.) RISING COMMODITY PRICES
2.) A FALLING US DOLLAR

Jim noted that these were present during the great bull market of the late 1970’s. Guess what? they were also present during the bull phase of gold which lasted from 2001- 2012 ( it began faltering in 2011).

Ironically or perhaps “Conveniently” would be a better choice of words, both pillars have been conspicuously ABSENT since the Dollar began its strong bull market and the commodity sector began its powerful bear market. ( see my earlier post about the charts).

Yet, those who subscribe to the gold price suppression scheme along the lines as articulated by Paul Craig Roberts, assure us that in spite of the glaring absence of two of their five pillars, the feds are still having to attack the price of gold through their agents, certain banks which are not noted specifically in the Roberts article.

Does not the open-minded reader find this odd to say the least? And I have not even touched on the interest rate component of those Five Pillars.

In other words, the US Dollar has been embarking on a powerful bull market and has gone nearly vertical since July of this year and is currently trading near a FOUR YEAR HIGH and yet Mr. Robert assures at this “attack” on gold by these “agents of the Fed” is being done in order to “protect the value of the Dollar from QE”.

Strange deduction from a set of stubborn facts is it not?

But allow me to get back to the key point I wish to make – the gold price suppression scheme proponents tell us that any “illegal” activity that occurs in the Comex gold market is big banks acting as agents of the Fed to discredit the metal and to protect the value of the Dollar.

Remember this story from May of this year dealing with a rogue trader from Barclay’s. I well remember it and wrote extensively about it at that time. Please see my comments on this as they are just as apropos about today’s UBS story as they were back then. I will stand by my view back then just as strongly as I will stand by my view today.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/05/ukraine-election-moves-to-forefront.html

The point is very simple – that large speculative forces, in my mind, mainly hedge funds, can move markets or act to influence them is nothing new in our financial markets. Sadly for those of us who prefer open and honest markets, it has been going on for years and will continue into the foreseeable future. However, to jump from that fact, that there is corruption in our financial markets, to the strained conclusion that this is evidence that the big banks are working as agents of the Fed to suppress the price of gold, is an insult to those whose minds can properly attribute cause and effect. It is especially insulting when the Dollar is the strongest currency currently in the world and the price of commodities is falling out of bed, with inflation fears sinking along with it.

If gold were in a bull market, if the Dollar was in a bear market and threatening collapse, if the commodity indices were all sharply rising with hot money flows swamping hard assets as they did a few years ago, if the mining shares were soaring higher, if the Velocity of Money was suggesting serious and possibly out-of-control inflationary forces were present, if REAL interest rates were negative, then perhaps, we could give more credence to the idea that among some of their strategies to deal with those things, an effort to slow down any sharp surge in the price of gold would carry credence with me as it once did some many years ago. Until then, the UBS story just confirms the same thing that most of us who have to make a living in these financial markets know all too well – namely, that the little guy, who is honest and plays by the rules, end up oftentimes donating to the big guys unless he or she is very nimble and can learn to stay clear of the sharks

GDXJ buy or sell?

gdxj

From TonyJordan2014…Sums up the situation and agrees with Plunger’s scenario….

The USD might have completed a 5 wave move last Friday. Conversely the Euro & a host of other currencies look as though they might have finished a 5 in the opposite direction. Same possibility for gold & crude not to mention the commodity sector in general and even $INDU:$GOLD. I’m not suggesting the USD has topped out. In fact, I don’t think it has. But a correction looks on the cards with implications across the board. The 1820.66 low on the SPX occurred on 15 Oct. Guess what, the October low on the USD (84.53) happened on the same day before a powerful rally took it to as high as 88.32 last Friday. The correlation between the USD and INDU/SPX is not always strong, but it has been very recently. The action in gold stocks has been quite volatile in this critically oversold sector. After collapsing the previous week the $XAU/$HUI/GDX gold seniors indices made it halfway back with a move up from Wednesday’s lows measuring 12% to 13% on very large volume. Similar story with the gold juniors (GDXJ). Their rally off Wednesday’s low was 16%. Also noteworthy is the volume on GDXJ in the first week on November which was an incredible 30 times higher than the first full week in Nov. 2013. A tradeable low perhaps and we might find a Primary A marking on TC’s gold chart soon. But I don’t think it’s THE bottom in this sector for a number of reasons including a USD comeback. At the real bottom I would also expect even greater volatility. The move off the Oct. 2008 lows after gold had fallen from $1033 to $681 saw $XAU/$HUI/GDX rise 25% over a 2 day period. Now that’s a bottom!

Step Sum Update ..Mark Lundeen

Step Sum Nov 2014

 

It hasn’t moved.

Here is an absolutely fantastic article that Mark Lundeen just put out last night. A must read on his step sum analysis:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-silver-dow-jones-step-sums

What is QE ? (by Chris D. in Gold Eagle) QE is not printing.

Never has been. QE’s main beneficiaries are a group of 22 primary dealers, which borrow direct from the FED at essentially interest free rate to use for buying Treasuries. If the Treasury market was allowed to fail all payments from the government would have to stop. The bankers know that, thus the banks who make money from money, sell to the FED what they can’t sell at the private market to the FED at the original cost of purchase and get paid with low interest loans to buy Treasury debt with. It’s basically a swap that has to be settled at a future date. Right now almost all banks who take in individual savings deposits sent those deposits to the FED for Treasury securities that now get used as collateral in our fractional loan making system. Treasuries are now used for what individual savings at one time were used for. In this way everything we the people own and have a mortgage on is now also collateral for our Treasury debt. About 60% of the QE money has been channeled into mortgage backed securities.

All this talk about QE inflation is wrong. QE debt creation is not money printing. An IOU is not cash money. The reason QE benefits the rich is because the rich make money from money, and the poor who don’t have any money, have no way of making money from money. Thus the growing disparity in income that is chocking our ability to advance. Ahead of us is what in my mind is called stagflation. Everything fiat will become worth more as everything physical is worth less. Gold is showing that. Gold will go much lower in the years ahead, for it is tied to the fiat script called US$’s.

QE is essentially an increase in the supply of credit to buy debt with. The FED is doing what most corporations are doing. Basically it is using credit to buy debt and store it off balance sheet. Lets use IBM as an example. They borrowed a lot of credit and used the credit to buy their shares to increase the earnings per share. Bank debt is not accounted for in the EPS. CHK is another example of that. They had to sell their almost best to SWN. The bullshit accounting Enron used is alive and well. The stock market is up because credit is being leveraged. 3/4 of the people in the USA don’t own stocks, thus can’t benefit from it. Truth be told they don’t trust the stock market ponzi scheme. You can only shaft people so many times and then they stay away for good. The fact is, the cash money stock in the USA is falling. People are using credit cards to buy a subway sandwich. For QE to be inflationary, the cash money stock has to increase not decrease. The only reason the stock market is high is because there is a lot of debt supporting it. Take that away and it will crash just like it did in 1929. And that is ahead of us. ”
Reply

Trader Dan

GLD to Gold – We have a Problem!

Once again we have another one of those proverbial flies in the ointment when it comes to one of these frequent rallies we have seen in gold during the ongoing bear market of the last two+ years. We get a great rally and a lot of powerful chart action over at the Comex only to wait upon the reported holdings update from GLD and then find disappointment.

Instead of a nice climb in the holdings, what did we get instead? _ a fall of some 5.7 tons! Quite honestly, that came as a very big surprise to me. Given the action in the mining shares, I had expected to see some increase in the holdings. ‘Twas not to be apparently.

This confirms my concerns about the rally – namely that while it was indeed powerful, it was due primarily to short covering and not so much due to an abundance of new buying. It is obvious that some used the rally in gold to close out some longs in the GLD.

Here is the chart. Gold holdings are now DOWN 71.07 tons from the first of the year ( and going in the wrong direction) while reaching back to levels last seen in late September 2008.

I am going to keep a very close eye on this next week and can only hope that we get some regular numbers reported daily from the ETF. Those of you who tend to follow that thing as I do know that we can sometimes go days without any fresh numbers coming our way.

FULLY 8:25

Good chart, Fully. I’ll be watching it. :)

Gold : The Only Chart Pattern we need to watch right now

gold

IF this is a backtest and it is successful

The Path is more clear for a continued drop than ever

IF the test fails and Gold can penetrate that BIG Neckline

Then its time to think Bullish

So far its classic chartology

Next week will be interesting

Well…we say that every week

GDXJ Point 5?

scsc (1)

that would be nice fullgoldcrown

But I’m thinking more downward motion yet to come. Wondering when the golden bull shows up again?

$GDM Point 5?

sc (1) sc (3)

What If GDXJ Chart

gdxj

Maybe

See you at

The Bottomz Inn

bottomz inn

SLV Backtest

SLV backtest the neckline extension around $16 before moving towards final target just above $12, FWIW

sc

SPX 60 FORK…

SPX 60 FORK

HUI Backtest ?

hui