Shakeout OR Consolidation ?

Rambus had a Great Wednesday Report Tonite

It was Short and Sweat ( pun intended)

( for Members Only)

This post inspired me to revisit a period in time that I and many here participated in this PM Miner Market

This is the HUI Bull of 2000 to 2008

I had NO clue what a chart was back then and when I heard about TA eventually my first reaction was

More Bullshit !

But I soon got Religion ( see Near Death Experience) and have become a Rambus Chartology Disciple

Now after 5 gruelling bear years , Many of us in this PM TA Community believe we have just started a new HUI Bull. If so what is happening now >?

Well here is the 2000 – 2008 HUI Bull in all its Glory. We Rode this thing with our eyes wide shut and our minds wide shut too…didn’t have a clue what was happening. We only had the belief that The Monitary System was going to crash any day and PM Miners were going to go up forever. So we bought and held and bought the dips and held and went through all this and became genius traders so full of ourselves…just to lose it all in a flash .

New Players in the PM markets….. STUDY this Chart !…print it out and stick it on the ceiling above your bed with a spotlight on it…Old Players Too !

You want to get rich in this sector….? Have you got what it takes ?

(click 2X to enlarge…read from bottom left to top right)

huishakeout

Now back to the point !

Where are we right now.

My 2 cents…

1…This is 80% likely…Consolidation Pattern just began…we will see a bottom somewhere in here or another 10% down then a strong rally and then another horrific drop…where most of you will bail…then another rally and pause and then a new impulse move up. This Consolidation will take 6 to 9 months.

OR

2…This is 20% likely…we just had a shakeout and are going to resume up almost right away.

What do YOU think ?

HUICONSOLIDATION

OK…IF THIS IS CORRECT…WHAT ARE YOU going to do NOW ?

A…go fishing
B…trade the swings and nail them exactly
c…trade the swings and break even if I’m lucky
d…trade the swings and lose it all
e…to #$^&K with this..I’m taking my chips to another casino
f Throw Up
g…I DON’T KNOW !

fwiw

Fullgold Crown

GSR: strong resistances ahead into 50%

Once cross decisively, there will be little holding it back, but can it?
Screenshot_2016-08-25-11-03-40

Year 1421, SCO and SDR

http://www.gavinmenzies.net/china/book-1421/

Yahoo misreported (pasted below).
Screenshot_2016-08-25-10-18-24

China merely rhymes it’s own history, not that of Western nations. It believes in the 600 year big trade cycle that is subdivided into 10×60 years. The West knows too little about China histories which is documented in specific Chinese museums.

As for the SDR, China has drawn that destiny by proposing 20% gold, hence possibly that argue it’s stacking. Though the SDR reset isn’t including gold another version has vaguely done so; gold for oil at the Shanghai gold exchange that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization had designed and patronized by SCO partners. The SCO GDP is so huge that it shadows UN members not in SCO. The SCO is the mother of new initiatives; Silk Belt, AIIB and of course the SCSea……. a new SDR route with Gold among its core. The IMF isn’t ignoring it, just delay action IMO. On this development, I am positive of Gold. As for the SCSea, I think China reach for the stars but ready to land on the clouds meaning the SCSea battle might just end as a gunboat affair and China walks away with its pet rocks while the zones without those rocks becomes bona fide international.

HUI LOG

gdxbb

Interesting Line….from KenS at the Chartology Roundtable

Also note the Bollinger Band Break…I don’t think I’ve ever seen one so dramatic

IF Bollinger bands mean ANYTHING this thing should snap back

Also note the RSI hasn’t been this low for a year at least

Not saying the correction is Over but due a bounce

Wednesdays

Are Wednesdays gold price action Catch 22, Syndrome or Dilemma from Tuesday COT report or what else? Are there ways to know COT on daily basis? Not just yesterday but I noticed on most Wednesdays.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/painful-day-commodities-183434622.htmlhttp://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/08/24/gold-slips-to-one-month-low-oil-falls-to-one-week-low/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

This is a bull trend so selling into FED’s speech might backfire, happened before.

NG

Appears to want to break out…
NG

Gold and GDX Cycle

Based on my weekend post, I was expecting a move into a short term Trading Cycle low this week but I was not expecting it to be this nasty.

I have stopped trying to trade around the short term TC Lows as, up until now, they have been quite mild. I have been focusing on the longer 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle (next IC Low should be in the Oct/Nov timeframe so we will see a bounce soon).

Markets are tricky and now I will pay more attention to the shorter term TC Lows as well. Hang on and don’t sell is my advice as a TC Low or DCL should be close.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=379008

NUGT MONTHLY

stopped at the neckline…. might chop around for awhile before the next big move

NUGT MONTHLY

Need-to-Know Tips for Safeguarding Your Precious Metals

Need-to-Know Tips for Safeguarding Your Precious Metals by Clint Siegner at Money Metals Exchange

NUGT WEEKLY AND THE 34 EMA…

nugt
Though I have to admit, the MACD BEAR cross has me concerned for the BULLS…

HUI for Crash Test Dummies

huictd

ctd

BPX:VIX Model

bpxvix 8-24a

This model says we likely topped last week. I only know in hindsight. IT is a little early based on time from previous cycles….

PULSE CHECK

OK Goldtent

How are you handling a time like this ?

Use this tread to discuss your feeling and strategies wrt this PM Market

Vent if you want !

I’ll go first

This Sucks…I shoulda listened to De Vivre !

🙁

GDX Backtesting?

I show that GDX has had a failed Trading Cycle today (i.e. a lower TC Low). It may also be backtesting its long term breakout. If so, the trend line comes in near the 30ema on the weekly.

Screenshot 2016-08-24 12.16.10

$1313

coil

Gold remains in a coiling formation. The first Daily Bearish lies at 1330 but the more important number is 1313. If gold will break to the downside, it is the 1313 number we need to close below. The high still remains the week of July 4th. The Weekly Bearish lies at 1275. That is the number that needs to be elected to hint at a potential sharp decline which could set this market up for a slingshot coming out of a low come January 2017. The weekly numbers above have not changed. We need a daily closing above 1369 to suggest a rally up to 1392 become possible for a September high rather than a low.

GDX Another View

gdx tlss 8-24

This will cause a few heart attacks….

NUGT CYCLE CHART

another trend line test coming up

NUGT CYCLE

Nice Puke-Fest

Reminds me of the time I drank way too many beers (18) and on the way home it “had to come out!”

painful-puke-cartoon-man-pain-as-vomits-41750732

Keep smiling guys!

Oh-No here comes the “dry heaves”!

NatGas and UNG

We may see a short term pullback but it sure looks like NatGas and UNG have found a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low. If so, a bullish pattern is taking shape.

Screenshot 2016-08-24 10.47.39Screenshot 2016-08-24 11.16.33Screenshot 2016-08-23 15.17.41

Paper Gold Downdraft?

well….I have no idea at this point if this is simply business as usual with offsetting strategies of some sort or evidence of manipulation or massaging of the gold price….any thoughts from those of greater brain power than myself would be most appreciated….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-24/someone-just-puked-15-billion-notional-gold

dont panic! help is on the way!

this is just a relief from today”s action.did you know that the price of gold is influenced by the amount of rain in the monsoon season?

all we need is some indian love!

 

Gold Spending In India Is Set To Get A Boost From A Strong Monsoon Season

GDX ADP Chart…

Another perspective on support levels…
gdx

DUST 60

Mr. De_Vivre…
This is for you. If you feel a change of trend is upon us, this gap fill would make for an excellent cup and handle on the DUST 60.
Again, I am focusing on the GLDX lower trend line to help guide me on a possible trend change…
A “trend change” in my book is denoted by the moving averages, I happen to use 13/34. On the daily, it’s still bullish. On the 60 min bearish…Choose a method and trade it well. FYI, the daily trend has been BULLISH since the end of January on how I define a trend on the daily.
Also, stay away from NUGT/DUST if not an active day trader. GLDX is a fine trading instrument.
dust

GDX 31 is a target next week or so if we bounce on the blue median

FYI

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92286978888&a=461424604&listNum=15

I see a nice positive div on MUX on the 60…

IF current price holds…Wait for the 13/34 EMA bull cross to those interested…

You Guys are Waaaayyyy Overthinking This

It doesn’t take a brilliant technician to see that today’s action is completely inconsistent with the Jan-Aug uptrend behavior.  Bagging profits yesterday and waiting for a better setup is clearly the right move…at least for me.  Good luck to the “Sit” camp.

 

HUI

GLDX…

GLDX

closing DUST…

DUST

GLD

gld 8-24b

gld 8-24a

GLD needs to hold support at 125 or higher otherwise we could have a much bigger problem.

GLD is at a place where it could bottom with RSI, CCI and stochastics oversold. Also at support in the cloud. Lets see…

XAU another look

xau 8-24a

A possible pathway if we follow the 2008-2011 playbook…

NUGT 60…

Agree with everyone here, need to find support because lots of AIR underneath awaits us…
nugt