Also, on GDX daily we had a bearish engulfing candle today…
havent seen this site before, great macro charts.
bubble what bubble?
I’m reading a book. The last chapter ended with Head and Shoulder patterns. Maybe I’m just seeing them everywhere now, but since this is a inverse crude (tracking S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index ER) chart and very recent, a HS pattern would have bullish implications for crude in the short term.
I guess a HS in an inverse fund should appear as an inverse HS in the bull fund (UWTI). I don’t know if it’s got all the essential characteristics since volume is related too. But the RSI (14) shows a bullish divergence between the left and right shoulders indicating the increasing momentum which a inverse HS should have which corresponds to DWTI’s decreasing momentum with its right side up (in an inverse fund…) HS. There didn’t appear to be any big breakaway at the return to the right shoulder neckline but maybe Monday will be the big day. Oil can’t stay at $50 bbl forever…
Looking bullish for GDX at least in the ST…Still not convinced till GDX breaches $20…
I hope it’s okay to post something about oil here.
I entered a long position in UWTI early February in what I believe is called a bull trap. WTI was at about $54 bbl. Since then I’ve been watching crude oil daily as well as gold and it’s EFTs. Like a large number of people I’ve been trying to figure out what it’s going to do next because the media says conflicting things on a constant basis. I think I’ve found two trendlines here but with only a few months experience with charts I could be wrong (I usually am). But it sure looks nice to see crude doing something orderly and somewhat predictable for a change. Even if the chart seems to suggest it’s not going to stay that way much longer.
My bottom trendline, if extended out, would have WTI at $100 bbl by early July …of this year. The upper line (green) reaches 100 by November.
Since this site is open to new ideas here is one it appears to me is worth analyzing. I have directed a lot of writing towards the three phases of a bear market. Well, there are three phases in a bull market also. The first phase is the accumulation or stealth phase. Like the bears first phase the bulls first phase is very similar in that it is an undercover or stealth operation. In a bull markets first phase, informed investors, unknown to the masses or institutions, accumulate positions. The masses have no knowledge that the bull has actually begun. In fact any news of the sector is negative and is met with harsh skepticism. This is the atmosphere that surrounds the uranium sector today. There is no way I can declare the beginning of a bull at this time, however the tea leaves seem to be changing here and I have my antenna out. Obviously, the thinly capitalized players are still going down and hitting new lows, however the market seems to be undergoing classic bifurcation. The solvent players have quit going down on bad news and volume has dried up.
Interestingly, Rick Rule has recently panned the sector as not ready for prime time. Chalk this up as classic phase I commentary as all news is met with skepticism in the early part of phase I. Lets tale a look at uranium global demand projections. Now I will be the first to say that one can’t base their investments on strict supply and demand, because it never quite works out that way. But in the long term it helps to know it, so when the charts start to discount it then it starts meaning something.
So starting around the year 2018 we begin to get a supply shortage. Also by the year 2020 the Chinese will be plugging one new reactor into the grid per month. This will be a massive tug on the demand rope. And China’s recent announcement of shutting coal fired plants supports this premise. Here is a picture I took flying just north of Beijing. Look closely and you can see the streams of smoke from coal fired power plants. This is going to be replaced as it is absolutely killing this country. Note the stream in the lower right corner headed right towards the population center of Beijing. This is not morning fog or haze it is toxic poison.
So lets take a look at the big picture. This is what a secular bear market looks like. It appears that it has now accomplished its work by testing and retesting its lows. It now seems to be making advances although begrudgingly. Keep in mind this is under an atmosphere of either contempt or total indifference. (that’s what we like to see).
Of course CCJ is the big gorilla, however here are three of my favorites which are attempting to make a turn. UEC seems to be leading off the bottom:
DNN- the quality laggard
Doug: Yes, I do. I still think that intraday low of around $1,140 last November was likely the actual bottom. RE: GOLD
L: Personally, I was very encouraged then, because gold had broken below its December 2013 low, and it seemed that every pundit and blogger in the world was saying that there was nothing to stop the fall short of $1,000, or even $700. It was widely believed that breaching the prior low was the trigger that would take it much lower-but that’s not what happened. Instead, the new low was a buying signal to Russians, Chinese, Indians, and others, and gold shot right back up again.
Anyone know the track record of Doug Casey?