Gold and Miner (GDX) Trading Cycles

We have entered the early part of the timing band where Gold and the Miners usually find a TC Low. Since the Jan 2016 Low, these have been brief, mild affairs. Note on my two charts below the small breakdown in price below the previous blue TC Uptrend moves Gold and the Miners into a TC Low.

This usually happens to signal a move into a TC Low. To mark a longer 5-6 month IC Low, the last TC Low is also usually lower than the previous TC Low. Again, this is what usually happens. Not always, but that is the Cycle norm.

Screenshot 2016-04-27 14.17.25 Screenshot 2016-04-27 14.09.52

Bollinger bands in the $usd

Are very very tight. Big move coming within the next few days.
image

What bull market? NMI.to Newmarket

Newmarket April 27:16

HUI ….Beautiful Chartology

Rambus Today

http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/stocks–equities/hui-update-beautiful-chartology?post=92825&uid=23288

GLD Setting up

gld 2hr 4-27

Bank of Japan tonight. Could move all the markets…

DRV

Just made my first trade of 2016. I sold my position in FCEL and used the proceeds to buy DRV. It’s nice when a position that “isn’t working out” still gets you 18% profit since Dec. The upside for DRV just looked much better over the next few months. It’s a 3X ETF so I wont hold it for more than a few months.

DRV

Edit: Also consider IYR chart which looks ripe for a fall.

IYR

Warrants – PM miners

I have had my eye on the different warrants that exists for pm miners for some time. There are quite a few but I think the ones below are the most interesting taking everything into account.

I think the return on some of these will be absolutely huge.
WARR

Right now, the Alamos warrant is at a nice entry point. Charts from yesterday.
ALAMOS AKTIEN INV H&SALAMOS WARR
Could be an interesting way to spice up the portfolio, well, if a pm miners portfolio at the start of the continuation of the bull market needs any spicing up that is. If you buy, note that there are at least two different ones.

Here is where you can find most of the warrants in existence for pm miners:
http://www.financialpost.com/markets/data/group-warrants.html

ADDED:
FNV is looking pretty good here too.
FNV BT

For you Richmont holders – Stick to companies that are RUN BY MINERS

So the “throwing out” of Greg Chamandy is finally complete.  He bought his way into Richmont during 2009, proceeded to run the company into the ground and I think he is still the largest shareholder.  Now that the company is ACTUALLY RUN BY MINERS, one can see what happens.   It isn’t always JUST what is in the ground, but the people who extract it.  I saw this coming for awhile which gave me an edge in Richmont sub 3.  When companies are actually run by miners like Renaud Adams and Rene Marion, you get results.  Stick to companies that are run by miners.

I don’t know what this means entirely, but it could either be a continuation of things set in motion to change the management or it could have something to do with the rumored TAHO deal.  Anyways, his millions of shares floating out there kind of scare me.

 

I mean, seriously… this guy was CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF A GOLD MINING COMPANY FOR 7 YEARS.

“Mr. Chamandy is the co-founder of Gildan Activewear Inc. He held the position of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Gildan from its inception in 1984, until retiring in 2004. In 2004, after creating the proper structure to replace himself, Mr. Chamandy retired from Gildan in order to pursue other interests. Mr. Chamandy subsequently became the Chairman and co-owner of Europe’s Best, North America’s largest selling brand of frozen fruit, which was sold to JM Smucker in 2008. Mr. Chamandy is currently also the Chairman of Oxbridge Group Inc., and the Chairman of Liquid Nutrition Inc., a Canadian smoothie and juice bar chain.

Mr. Chamandy has been a Director of Richmont Mines since May 2009, and was Chairman of the Board from December 2009 to January 1, 2016.”

CNXC – Consol (CNX’s) coal MLP – breaking out of consolidation

Great call Cashcosts, this thing has almost doubled in 10 days-

CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX) – 15.19 Up 1.03(7.26%)

Thanks for sharing it.

GSS

gss 4-27

Small pennant forming. ?gearing up for the next leg higher. Notice how nicely the volume tapers off on declines and rises with advances. Textbook!

Waiting for Auntie J and company…

T minus 124 minutes

Fed Will Spark an Market Earthquake as it often does

Tsunami too ?

MA Says today is a “panic” day in Silver

Doesn’t say up or down though

How useful is that ?

GLD Thoughts

I like the consolidation above the key pivot on the weekly chart. I suspect anyone who has cashed out or gone short in anticipation of an “Annihilation” as triggered by COT data will be disappointed with 2016 as gold prices head towards 2012 levels within a year. I feel that looking at weekly and monthly charts grounds our perspectives much better than short term charts. Oil is another great example where I saw folks who were citing multiple layers of resistance with crude in $40s when looking at daily or intraday charts. However, if you turn to weekly and monthly charts you see prices driving up from an inflection point. Again, I have a multi-year investing timeframe and am not looking for cashflow from my trades so everyone’s needs and perspectives are different.

GLD

what bull market???

Entry price $0.05 area. Initial target price $0.50 or 1000% potential return from entry price.

Edit: I had a close look at their gold project, and reckon its as good as or if not better, than Roxgold’s. I expect they can add another 1 million oz of high grade ore to their current 3.6 million oz resource, which is valued at about $10 per oz in the ground.

At $0.50 we start to get back to “known values” for companies like this. They were totally trashed and now they are mean reverting to a sensible price. what bull market??

gry3

BioTech Watch

IBB Struggling to make it back to my upper resistance line.

Screenshot 2016-04-26 19.36.30

CRB Watch

Some further evidence that the CRB may be bottoming here.

Not sure if anyone has followed my SGG, SOYB, JJG trades (also have a smaller position in DBA). Here are some charts, SOYB has been the most bullish and is driving JJG as well. Sugar is in a key spot right here.

Screenshot 2016-04-26 17.49.50 Screenshot 2016-04-26 17.39.01

Screenshot 2016-04-26 17.42.29 Screenshot 2016-04-26 17.45.45

Bond Cycle Update

I have TLT on Day 8 of its current Trading Cycle (18-24 days on average) and it topped on day one and has failed.

TLT has also quickly retraced more than 38.2% of the move thus far so it looks like the failed Trading Cycle is leading us into the next Intermediate Cycle Low. Normally IC Lows breach my longer Intermediate Cycle trend line which would imply a drop into the 62% range.

Seems Bonds are pricing in a potential rate increase here or at least a hawkish FMOC statement.

Screenshot 2016-04-26 18.41.20

HUI

Looks like it is getting ready to break out of this recent consolidation.

GOLD 5min CHART COIL STANDSTILL @ $1242

Wants to sooo bad.

Take a look:

http://www.netdania.com/comodities/gold

The gold stocks rally most investors missed

Sharing a good read

A Historic Rally in Gold Stocks – and Most Investors Missed It

Trend Master Covel is In on Gold & Silver

http://dailyreckoning.com/r-p-maggie-kelpie/

http://dailyreckoning.com/why-i-changed-my-mind-on-gold-and-gold-stocks/

Interesting…

http://www.trendfollowing.com/

Michael Covel built an entire business off the work of Richard Dennis (imo the GREATEST trader ALL-TIME, 2nd only to Livermore) in case anyone out here did not know.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dennis

1976 DAILY ANALOG

Just for fun. Here is the ’76 daily chart w/ bottoms synched up. Not easy to get these to align on Stockcharts so I have to count the days from the bottom using the inspector. From bottom to bottom in ’76 was 31 days. X2.1 = 65ish for 2016. If the low holds then it came within 2 days of the ’76 low. Not bad. The ’76 pattern broke out hard on Oct 28th and went to new highs. If we were to see the same thing today it would be around May 5th or 6th. Give or take a few days. Gold seems to be fighting hard up against $1243. Need to take that out and hold it for good. When counting days I realized ’76 was also a leap year.

76 run

16 run

Can’t get candles for the ’76 run on Stockcharts. Here is ’16 candles.

16 run candle

HUI One-hour chart

Looks promising with a SAR buy signal and a MACD about to turn over upside.

HUI Keeping an eye on the 15 minute

HUI April 26:16 15 min

1243

We may be preparing to BO above, finally. My ’76 daily analog chart shows we would be at new highs around May 5th to 6th. Charts coming up for that post.

GOLD WEEKLY TRI

HUI Nice breakout on the one minute chart today.

HUI April 26:16 one min.

Welcome New Member

Romanov

Here is the chart of the PM Miner you were referencing

idm1

Any Fundamentals to share >?

Regards

Fully

woah

idm

Quick one on GDXJ

Here is how I see it move up in the coming days. Falling wedge BO soon, then moving up in a series of h&s´.
GDXJ falling wedge 10min

RE: RVRCF–Opinions Please…

EagleSeagle, left comment.  New member, first post.

Follow up on GOLD and SILVER´s bottoming process => $HUI

In several posts I have tried to show that I think that the pm complex is reversing/turning in the shorter term with the help of a series of inverse h&s´. And that that is also the way I expect it to keep going up for the first years in this continuation of the bull market.

Showed this for GDXJ:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=367503
And I have also showed this for silver:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=366668
And for gold:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=365279
And for JNUG/NUGT:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=366341
And for ratios:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=365491

Now, let´s look at the $HUI. It is showing the same inverse h&s pattern, possibly even a bit clearer since it right now is respecting the neckline in full it seems. As the present low very short term is the second BT to the neckline following a strong BT last week, it would be my guess here that we do not go lower here than the circa 190 that the strong BT hit last week.
HUI d right on the neckline2HUI PO för inv h&s

And as we see in the chart below, that 190 fits perfectly with BT:ing a long term resistance line, now support line. Sorry for the many lines here but I think you see that it is BT one of the support lines.
Rambus have the BT at 182 but I would say that there is a large possibility that we have had the BT at circa 190. We might of course get a second BT but looking at the charts above that does not seem likely.
HUI w kil

So, the whole pm complex as I see it is showing the same thing: we are going up with the help of inverse h&s´ on the shorter term. On the more longer we of course have the linear falling weekly wedges that have reversed the trend.

Even if we all think that a noticeable correction is really due here, these charts say that here is not where we are going to get it.
And one more thing that points to this is that all the inverse h&s´ are slanting heavily upwards, i.e. the price is in a hurry.

I think that as long as pm miners are on track we do not have to worry that much about what gold does. And this attitude or understanding will also get even more important down the road I think as we probably will get increasing volatility.

This is for Surf City…

41228_large
http://www.safehaven.com/article/41228/is-july-5th-the-next-stock-market-bottom
My Interpretation of the SPX 15…
SPX
The only indicator which concerns me with this scenario is the MACD 40,80,30 which is about to BULL cross…
My main indicator on the 15 minute chart…
SVXY EOD…Ready to complete as a BEAR flag?
SVXY