Morning Dollar Update

(ii) complete… onwards and upwards….



Use of MACD on XIV & SVXY Vol Trade

Good Evening all !

I wanted to share a tool I have been using with success and hopefully provide a bit of wisdom I’ve learned over the past two years trading. First, in real life I’m not an investment banker, not a withered trader with decades of training, I’m a Field Artillery Officer. My job is to provide safe and accurate artillery support to Soldiers and Marines. Now, the only reason I bring up my background is to give a small bit of insight into my thought process and how I trade. I’ve fired thousands upon thousands of artillery rounds, and can tell you within a certain probability where each and every projectile will land, baring some sort of catastrophic failure. Based on my background I realized I would never fire an artillery round based on data which was purely “Subjective”. I want “Evidence Based Technical Analysis” not “Subjective” analysis. This bled into the trading style I’ve been using. I don’t want to spend my time figuring out what pattern I’m looking at in the charts, I want the chart to give me a signal and I respond. If the signal is correct, more times than not, and I allocate my resources, my money, correctly I’ll come out ahead. Give me an edge and I’ll make nice money. It is all about stacking probabilities in your favor and repeating the process again, and again to come out ahead. It is rather boring, but I’m here to make money, to add to my bank account, nothing more.

Okay, next I want to talk just a minute about volatility. You hear discussions about the “VIX” which is just a formula calculated on options for the S&P 500. I was always confused what the VIX was and how to trade it. The answer is simple. You are not trading the VIX. Ignore the VIX, pretend it doesn’t exist. I removed it from all my bookmarked charts. The only value in the VIX I have thus far found is that when the VIX is under $12, I stat thinking of shorting the S&P 500 and close my longs, and when it is over $22, I start to watch my shorts closely and get ready to go long. What you are really trading with volatility is the E-mini S&P 500 Futures. XIV and SVXY are the “Bull” stocks for the futures market. If the futures market is going up, they go up. VXX is the “Bear” or short for the futures market (and TVIX / UVXY x 2 leveraged versions) so if the S&P futures are going down, these go up. I hope I explained it well enough.

Now, why I like this form of trading ? I want a method that is signal based, short time-frame, higher probability. One of the things I’d recommend is finding a trading style which works for your personality. This method is about scalping a % or two at a time. Over a month it adds up. If you are looking for a “grand slam” each outing this isn’t for you.

Okay, if you are still with me, below is a 1 month, 2 HR chart of XIV, the “Bull” for the S&P Futures. The “Green” arrows show “Buy” points, the “Red, “Sell”. Presently the “Bull” stocks are much easier to trade in this market, and I weigh my buys in recognition of this. When / If the bear appears, I would do the opposite. Honestly, you would be fine just avoiding the “Bear” versions and just use the “Bulls”, much more forgiving in this market, but it is all based on your risk tolerance. You can knock out big gains with the “bears” but if you are wrong they are far less forgiving.

What I’m doing —-> Watch the MACD. Oh, another note, I changed the MACD from the standard. Normally it is (12,26,9), mine is (5,35,5). Play with this. I like this one, gives a bit of an “edge” I think. When the MACD is below the median line, or 0.0, start looking for a “Buy”. Your buy signal is when the bars stop moving down and begin to move up. Momentum is swinging and you get a signal. When the bars stop moving up and head down, you “sell”. Best case is when the MACD is below 2.0 to buy. I might get more in-depth later. I have a 1 HR, a 2 HR, daily, and a 5 minute chart going. The 5 minute is used after I have confirmed a “buy” with the hour charts.

XIV Trade

Also, Candles. It is a whole another post. I really have come to respect long tails on candles. Watch for these on a down move. The bulls are buying into the selling and taking over. I don’t trade 100% off of them, but they are a tool to watch. Doji’s / shooting stars too, watch for them on tops. I’m slowly adding them to my tool basket.

Take a look at the chart, let me know what questions you have. I used this for DUST last week and it turned out nicely, made about 7%. The issue though, is I expect more failures trading NUGT / DUST, their volatility is much greater and an overnight gap up or down in gold can wreck you. I’m presently backtesting NUGT / DUST to see how they work with this. Will post my results. SO far two trades, one NUGT one DUST both good, but that is far too small a sample size. Will keep looking at charts and see how viable in the future, but should work.

Okay, good trading all !


HUI Fractal?



If the case, a massive gap down comes tomorrow morning.


Phantoms to the Downside Piling Up


…. but not huge to the downside


Dollar Update

On track. Hit first target within pennies (i). Look for 50-62% retrace (ii) but 23% also possible. Following chart with price projections…



DWTI–Short Crude…

Looking for gap fill reaction to go long DWTI…



WATCH THAT PLUNGING NECKLINE! Will it hold? If not, 100 is on the agenda. :)


Memorial Day Seasonality From Sentimentrader



GDX 2 HR Chart – This is a Bearish Chart!!

… but could turn Bullish in a few days…



Rick Ackerman Update

0520_RicksPicksThe futures spent Wednesday tracing out yet another gratuitous hump that would have enriched few, whether bulls or bears. The rally portion of the hump was inconsequential because it failed to exceed the previous day’s high.  It was prompted by “news” of the latest drivel from the Fed, and although the initial, upward frenzy gave way to an equally demented plunge, bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high that this could be the beginning of a significant selloff. As DaBoyz have proven time and again, they can hold stocks at least buoyant on days when there are practically no buyers around.

However, lest bears despair of the possibility that the bull market — 74 months old and driven by smoke, mirrors and brazen hoax  — will ever end, feast your eyes on the accompanying chart. It shows a still unachieved rally target at 2138.00 that would represent a marginal gain above Tuesday’s high. Because that important Hidden Pivot coincides with an even more important midpoint resistance at 2138.50 from a far larger pattern, I am recommending that you get short up there as aggressively as your nature will allow.  If the opportunity pans out, look for me in the chat room for more-detailed guidance.


Trader Dan

Gold Analysis Simplified


Welcome to Goldtent TA Paradise

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GDX Daily Chart Cleanup

Not making Fib Projections. This might be the path…. also cleaned up the chart




Marty is Going Hollywood

I want this guy to Play Marty




Does appear that the right shoulder of a large HS top has formed a double top. Watching with interest… :)


GLD Targets

Completion of 5-wave up for “c” would be 118.48 (1=5)… However, a=c target would be 119.98.



JDST Update

Charts a little messy but if we hold the 38.2% retrace for the minor 4 then we should make the channel top… Looking good so far….. the shaded bar shows the projected 1=5 target….



Dollar Update with Projections

Wolf Wave didn’t let me down :-) … minor wave 1 should be finishing up right about now. Minor 2 pullback… say 50% then up to around 25.86 for a minor 3…. etc.etc…..



GDX Morning Update

GDX 2 HR Chart: Trend looks down but then this IS the 2HR chart… EWO Price Divergence achieved (last high of 21.25 was actually a failed 3-PushUp!!!)…. Near term EW suggests small wave 4 corrective with wave 5 down to come (Note that the wave 3 from yesterday may not yet be finished e.g., a little more downside before we correct back up in 4 then down again to complete a 5)…. may find support at channel bottom… Right now, this moment, the Bull is still alive until we break through the channel support


GDX Daily Chart: no surprises but trend is worrisome….




New Poll

Vote at the sidebar

Precious Metals : Where are we ?


Mid Cap Index Hits Resistance…



Great Posts Today

You guys are good !

Thanks all …keep em comming

A lot to learn


MACD cross on WTI 60

WTI 60 May 19

I’ve heard talk of crude dropping to $55 (it’s at $58 right now) but that MACD cross to me is suggesting a bottom has been reached as well as a run back up to $61 in what has become a nice trading range three times already.  The inverse fund, DWTI, made 10% today.  Maybe tomorrow UWTI will do the same; it’s fallen from $4.08 to 3.21 in the last 5 days (-21%).


GDX: Second Shoulder Complete?

Take a gander at this: GDX H&S

Trek got me looking at the GDX chart.  Do you think we’re forming a head and shoulders pattern?  It caught my eye because the top of the shoulders are pretty much parallel to the neckline.  I’m biased.  I own mining shares.  But this one does look pretty bad.  Hoping the neckline can hold.  On the other hand, I’m trying to average in at lower prices every time they go lower because I plan to hold them for the long haul.  Just hope they can survive the storm.


Todays Down Move in Miners



Exceeded any of the up days in the last 2 weeks in terms of % and are making higher lows to lower lows. Lol if you think this is “bullish”


GDX Update

Retrace now surpasses 100% measured move projected yesterday. Even lower than when I took a snapshot of the chart a few minutes ago!!!!  BEWARE…. this bear may have legs!!!


If planning on going long may want to wait for daily to turn first:



The Anatomy of a “GAP” – A Day Traders Perspective

I use to dread Gaps unless of course it was a GAP UP.  But now I realize this is where I make the most money…. well… second to Wave 3’s :-) of course…. Understanding the 3-Push Up and 3-Push Down patterns is key. Well, these are actually called n-Push Up/Down patterns but lets not get picky – 3 is typical; 4 is rare; 5 I can’t even remember seeing since the bull days (yeah I’m that old)…..



Rick’s Pick for Tuesday

Bullish for Miners in the short term?

From Rick Ackerman (his daily updates are free — just subscribe)

Considering there are four separate patterns of different degree driving the futures higher on the weekly chart alone, it’s remarkable that the best bulls can do is worm their way to a merely marginal new record high as the new  week begins. DaBoyz are simply marking time, seemingly confident that on days when there is zero buying power, even from short-covering bears, they can still hold stocks aloft.  And on days when some meaningless piece of  economic news hits the tape, goading shorts into a nitwit frenzy, that’s when big rallies come cheap and easy.  What can we expect in the days ahead?  Most immediately, look for more upside to the 2134.00 target shown. I expect the hit to be very precise, given the exact confirmation of the 2106.75 midpoint pivot last Wednesday.


5-Waves UP… Would look for abc corrective pullback… then up more????




Trader Dan’s Gold Analysis is different from anybody out there and as always

unbiased ….Nobody analyses the COTs and the GLD Holdings like Dan .

But you have to be a member to see this one .

In summary :

Gold is being liquidated by the GLD ..this is NOT Bullish


“For now we still expect this multi-month choppy uptrend to be topping out soon. Followed by a short-lived correction of about 5%.”

FYI TAN’s ST indicators are topping and MACD bull cross has NOT occurred.