Armstrong – 27 Aug 14
What perfect timing on my part, last evenings Currency report by Rambus was the last report I will read on the web after 34 years and 9 months of trading off currency trends….excellent report!
I can tell you all that for the price of a cup of coffee a day the chart work you receive from Rambus is second to none and perhaps its because I look at his work from a traders approach I realize what he provides is from the goodness of his heart as his work is worth far, far more!
I found Rambus when I was short the pm’s sector as I was looking for someone, anybody who had the same position to compare what I thought I saw on my charts but obviously it had to be someone holding a short position based on chart work not opinions. As it turned out I think we complimented each others approach to trading the pm’s sector.
Fri I hand over my mouse to a dear friend of 34 years Mr Yen who I’ve had the privilege to trade $Yen, $Mark, $Cdn, $Swiss and $Sterling with, he will be trading my families portfolio.
FGC wanted me to leave you with some words of wisdom, I have none….everything you need is on the charts that you watch, you want to trade your own positions then trade as a trader, its really that simple!
I’ve shown you the 4 Horsemen and its Rider an approach I used while currency trading, hopefully between your own approach and what Rambus provides it will be another tool keeping you on the correct side of the trend in play.
OPINIONs are like reading the comics they are for comic relief its the indicators that matter as the price will always follow.
Martin Armstrong can be a very cryptic read indeed, but there is nobody better on the web that highlights Big Money Flows, that which creates the trend on our charts, his data fed computer is leading edge and completely opinion free.
Dan Norcini is the most grounded pro trader I know of, again I always visited Dan’s site to confirm why XYZ moved off ABC data releases…..its great to focus on the charts and its indicators but one must always flip over the chart to see what is creating the trend in play. Its no different than any professional doing his job one has a system check that they rely on and it becomes a routine keeping you on top of your game, trading is no different. Dan’s view is a must to follow.
Your position is the Hub and every spoke is an indicator creating the wheel which effects the action of the hub, find what works for you and stick with it because in todays market place NO trade should be made off 1 chart, 1 indicator….its a combined effort based off many Radar screens.
I wish you all the best and don’t ever think for a second you’ve got this trading thing all figured out, because 34 years later I was still learning……that has always been the driver behind my desire over the years.
The biggest mistake I saw over the years was traders with big % gains and they didn’t take profits…..have a goal, a target, an exit strategy….how many investors would have kept their big dotcom gains with that approach in place
The Greedy become the Needy……..
Sue, my soul mate of 36 years, turn off the lights to my Radar room bunker……I’ll make the popcorn!
Here we are at the double bottom on GDX and buyers ARE NOT stepping in…It’s 1400
The charts I post using my posting method are static. How do I post live charts? And no wisecracks, Fully.
Here is an updated chart of GLD. Once again, the reported holdings dropped. This time it was a reduction of 2.11 tons, bringing the total reported holdings to 749.87 tons, down 48.35 tons since the beginning of the year.
This is the lowest level since November 2008.
Bulls – fear not however since we are assured that this gold is being “drained” to head to meet soaring Asian demand.
Let’s add this new bullish spin to our long list of bullish theories propounded by the gold permabull crowd.
To refresh your memory, here are some of them.
1.) Backwardation – Bullish for gold prices
2.) Negative GOFO rates – Bullish for gold prices
3.) J P Morgan long side corner on gold – Bullish for gold prices
4.) Chinese warehouse doubling counting of gold – Bullish for gold prices
5.) Big hedge fund short position – Bullish for gold prices
6.) False Taper – Treasury buying US bonds out of Belgium – Bullish for gold prices.
7.) Big gold buying underneath the market as reported by “Mr. gold insider/whistleblower” – Bullish for gold prices
8.) GLD being drained to meet Asian demand – Bullish for gold prices.
Here is my response and that which any objective trader/investor should greet these fabrications with:
Its a race between who will raise rates first GB or the US…..anytime a country is in a rate increase cycle the currency is bid/bullish and the opposite reaction is when a country is cutting its interest rates.
GB’s BOE today announced they will put their first rate hike since 2009 on hold…why?….the rest of Europe and especially Germany’s data just plain stinks!…DEFlation!
The British Pound fell almost a full cent…..remember Oct 8th when the Fed minutes hinted that the board was concerned about the strength of the US$ which as QE ends and the US enters the Spin Cycle of when to raise rates of course the $ is going to rise….duh!
So on time QE will end and the focus will turn to when the first rate hike will take place in the US…well get ready for more excuses as to why its not going to happen, using Europe or Japan or even China as an excuse…..the REAL reason, the ticking time bomb of European debt is coming back into focus and regardless of higher rates in the US or not, the US$ will continue to strengthen and when Big Capital is flowing into the US$’s there is no way in Hell that Mrs Doubtfire is going to raise rates….. unless they actually want a 110 US$ Index by next summer
So although I’m firmly in the much, much lower $Yen and Euro$ camp its going to be one Wild and Crazy ride! as the Central Bankers try and hold back the US$ advancement….good luck!
This just Posted at the Chartology Forum
“100% gain since May 22, 2013″
POSTED On October 22, 2014 ·
That was the day I started following chartology, learning chartology, and taking Sir Rambus’ advice.
Been a heck of a roller coaster! Hope it’s all uphill from here!
I figure if I can average just 50% per year I’ll be set for life in about 10 years…
Thank you Sir Rambus and everyone else here!! This is the best site on the planet… Keep up the good work chaps ”
MACD, MACD histogram, etc look very bearish on the daily.
This is not your Daddy’s Bond Market
Having been trading the bonds for many years, the recent volatility has really caught my eye. The extent of the price swings in this market has been nothing short of breathtaking.
Whenever you see a market make swings of this magnitude, know that someone is in serious trouble.
Take a look at this short term price chart and imagine the carnage being inflicted on some traders as they swing back and forth from such huge extremes.
Do you see those big volume spikes? Someone got obliterated!
Try to imagine that you are a risk manager for a large banking or mortgage interest and are attempting to institute some sort of hedges! How in the world do you even read a market that is doing this sort of thing? I can tell you that hedgers and speculators both have been run over in this market the last couple of days.
This is what I am referring to when I caution traders out there. These markets can clean you out faster than a package of Ex-Lax if you let down your guard. Either trade smaller or stay on the sidelines but do not try to play the hero right now. It is just too dangerous!
Making predictions, postulating this or prophesying that, in dogmatic terms is very foolish and speaks more to hubris than it does to sound judgment. What I do know is that the entirety of the markets is very unsettled right now with the VIX having rising sharply and with the currency markets having been thrown into turmoil. Until the currency markets calm down, be careful.
By the way, crude oil is managing to hold above $80 for now and the XLE is up today. Maybe crude has gone down enough? I don’t know but am monitoring it very closely.