Goldbugs Hate Him
Precious Metals Market Watchers Love Him
King Dollar has not been Dethroned Just Yet
Trying to get a read on these markets during the times that the Fed is either announcing policy changes or releasing minutes can be incredibly difficult. The sheer ferocity of the moves in price can confound even the most astute and dedicated chart watchers.
It would appear at this point ( don’t hold your breath however as who knows what will happen in the next hour much less the next day in these markets anymore) that the Dollar found eager buyers at the key breakout level near 85.00 on the USDX chart.
Note that the Dollar fell back to that former resistance level which is now serving as downside support and that support did hold. That it did so, in spite of the Fed’s concerns over its strength, is rather telling. It shows that the fundamentals supporting the Dollar are just too strong right now, Fed protestations notwithstanding.
it all comes back down to interest rate differentials. Traders are of the view that economic data releases that are forthcoming are going to show continued improvement ( albeit gradual) and that compared to other major currency regions, that strength is noteworthy.
Look at the Euro for Pete’s sake – it is down over 55 points as I type this with forex guys wasting no time in selling into its rally.
When it comes to gold – just like yesterday when we had to give respect to the big rally in the mining shares, so today we must give respect to the fact that the miners are sinking once more. The HUI is off over 4% with the junior-laden GDXJ getting pummeled once more as it is off more than 5.5% as I type up these comments.
Also, as one of our regular posters noted ( we are all watching that now) the big gold ETF, GLD, actually LOST gold yesterday – almost 5.5 tons to be precise. Apparently those in that vehicle used the big rally yesterday to get out. The ETF is now down 36.14 tons since the beginning of the year. For those who are bullish on gold, that is not an encouraging sign. One wants to see the reported holdings climbing on rallies, not shrinking.
I am noticing that silver is having trouble holding its gains above the key chart resistance level near $17.50. It managed to push past that level earlier in the session ( failing to make it as far as more formidable overhead resistance near $18.00) but has since fallen back. Copper is continuing to hold above $3.00 which is helping silver but with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index continuing to swoon, one has to be skeptical about the extent of any upward moves in these metals continuing much further.
The bulls will have to prove their mettle ( a little play on words here).
Here is the most recent GSCI.
The index is one point above a 27 month low. If it drops more than a point, it will be at levels last seen FOUR YEARS ago!
Crude oil and the products continue to weaken – I noted that yesterday this sector failed to respond to the big sell off in the Dollar – that was a sign that the fundamentals are just too poor which makes me even more concerned about deflationary pressures. Crude has dropped $22.50 / barrel in 3 1/2 months time. That is why I keep telling those who are stuck on inflation that they need to check their ideology at the door and look at the chart. It is going down, not up.
Personally, as a consumer, I LOVE it.
Depending on the outcome of the USDA report tomorrow, we might just get a break of that 27 month low level. Heck, if crude keeps falling today it might do that today! (NOTE – Before I could finish typing this post the GSCI just fell BELOW that 27 month low – it hit a FRESH FOUR YEAR LOW TODAY).
Again, at the risk of beating a dead horse, this is the reason that I remain skeptical about any SUSTAINED moves higher in both gold and silver. What we witnessed on Monday of this week and yesterday were what happens when the Dollar weakens. My viewpoint is that the Dollar has been and will remain the key for many of our commodity markets.
The sheer magnitude of these leveraged carry trades overwhelms anything fundamentally driven for a time but if the general trend is one of lower commodity prices due to slowing global growth, it is hard to see how a few words from the Fed can significantly alter that trend WITHOUT some sort of action. Remember – Central Bankers are very good at moving their currencies by talking them down or talking them up, but IF the movement is AGAINST the primary trend, which is driven by fundamentals, the countertrend move will not have any staying power. It takes a shift in the fundamentals and that means a shift in policies.