GLD entering the window for a possible low

gld 7-21

We are entering the window for GLD to make a low over the next several days. WE have the 50DMA, Ichimoku cloud support. Also nearing oversold on CCI. We are oversold on the stochastics. If the uptrend is to continue gold should reverse upwards in the next 1-2 weeks.

Gold close to two potential support lines on my chart.

Gold close to two potential support lines on my chart, one parallel to the larger blue pitchfork and also the upper rail of the smaller light blue fork. Both care close to $1310 as of 15 July, St. Swithin’s Day, so let’s hope it doesn’t rain!

The test of support at the light blue line is a potential back-test of the breakout above the light blue fork that already happened. I have seen these two forks as roughly equal in importance in the price action since the December lows:

StockCharts 2 pitchforks bullish action 20160715 goldpitchfork 1310edit

 

Could see a correction to HUI 235 and GDX 26. Below that would get ugly.

Chart watchers are watching.

GDX Forks Update…. How does it go from here?????

GDX JULY 21:16  Forks

HUI

hui111

Full Moon

Just looked out side …Ah…that explains everything

WOLF

This from Spock’s Site also explains today

seasonality

CAN’T WAIT FOR WHAT COMES NEXT

An Email Exchange with a Member . ( Edited)

“Fully Good grief, I just cannot believe they are viewing you as a one sided gold bug…unbelievable! This is totally out of control. No one is giving you credit except for Cedarwood…shssssssss”

Jim
…………………

Thanks my friend. Its a thankless job sometimes

Been thru this a few times before at the various forums I moderate.

Don’t dare call into question the tempestuous star darling brat poster who will take his ball and go home at the drop of a hat .

Oh please Don’t go..It was that despicable ahole Fully who disrespected you not us !

I don’t like it but It bothers me less each time .

Goldtent TA Paradise is free for all to participate and read as you know .

We get many many messages from appreciative readers …so that’s really rewarding

We do this for three reasons .

1…To help Goldbugs ( like us) and Gold Investors weed thru all the crap that got many of them into Financial Hot Water over the years .

I have personally heard many stories of bankruptcy , destroyed retirements, lost College Tuitions and Marriage Breakups all because of the Gold , and more specifically the Gold Cult Permabull Gurus .

2…To Create a Community of like minded Technical Analysis affectionados to develop promote encourage and teach their different TA techniques in a safe and friendly place where all can participate by contributing or reading for FREE . Free of advertising and free of bullshit.

3…To promote interest and membership in Our 3 Sponsor’s websites ( Trader Dan’s World , Spock Matrix and Rambus Chartology) as well as direct readers to other honest two way analysts .

…but alas the entitled still want to bash me for messing with their baby. How dare I point out the pitfalls of the Leveraged PM ETFs

How dare I call into question a trade gone horribly wrong ?

I got a few emails from disenchanted new traders.

Will post one I just received later.

Fully the Bully

OK Here it is

” Sir. I have been reading you goldtadise for several months now. I am a new dad in my final year of college . I was directed to your website by a friend who made a lot of money following your trades and more particularly he said Mark was the one to follow. I am new to this stuff.

In June I got my first brokerage account and put my savings of $10,000 into it. I decided to put the money into Mark’s trade as I heard he was the best and that he made a shipload in gold trades. I bought DUST and JDUST and in 2 weeks lost almost half my money. After reading your different opinion I got out just monday this week and now these stocks have gone wild. This has been a terrible experience. Why in god’s name do you not warn people like me sooner. I read your kamikazi post today. thanks a lot too late.

JB

So there you have it Jim Its all fun and games until someone loses an eye

I forget sometimes that there are many inexperienced traders reading here who need to be considered…my bad

…I think I will post this…thanks for the support and good night

FGC

EW Software Update

Thought I would share what my Elliott wave software has found on the $XAU index (explanation to follow):

^XAU20Jul16

Please refer to the above chart as I explain. I will try to be as brief as possible…
So we have had a five wave move from Jan 19 to May 17 and a three wave correction from May 17 to May 25. By the rules of Elliott Waves, if this set up occurs, then five waves must follow whether it is an impulsive or corrective wave. As you can see above, starting at May 25 to present, we have had only three complete waves, the fourth is currently in progress.

Another basic tenant of Elliott waves is that wave 4 cannot cross into wave 2 territory. If you then put these two ideas together then the index has tipped its hand. It is telling us that the current decline cannot (under the as-labeled analysis) fall below 95. One more subtly is that when dealing with commodities like gold or silver, there can be a very slight overlap. Having said all that, it becomes obvious that a good place to buy might be in the upper to mid nineties with a tight stop a little below 95, say 93.

(Refer to the wave starting May 25 to present). This should complete wave four and start wave five. Since wave three is longer than wave one, wave five will most likely be equal in duration and amplitude to wave one. This would be about a 15 point gain and put the index somewhere over 110.

If indeed we fall below 93, then the wave would have been mislabeled and would most likely lead to a much deeper retrace. Cheers!

EDIT: I should probably also add that this would complete the larger waves 1-2-3 and 4 would then start, which would be a very significant correction (probably the one everyone is looking for right now).

Short Idea

IBB

Double Headed H&S formation. Target on break out is about 200 expected around September 1st. Stop above the two heads. Allow for possible false break of channel as we enter high volatility period. Re-enter short on any re-test of broken neckline for likely lower target end of November. Am using LABD as trading vehicle which has a longer term target of 80.

Also, if you think oil will break down soon look at RUSS. I have a longer term target of 70 on this. Obviously small positions to begin with and take partial profits when appropriate (overbought/ negative divergence etc on the way).

Good luck

 

GDX Daily…

First gap filled…
This correction was expected.
This could just be another BULL flag forming..
I will not get crazy bearish until the lower blue trend line is breached …
WATCH THE RSI 5 TREND LINE…AS THE OTHER INSTANCES, WHEN THIS LINE IS BREACHED TO THE UPSIDE; THAT IS THE TIME TO GO LONG..
I am not able to update chart–fly fishing in the boonies of Montana…
sc
PEACE OUT!

Metals Update

Damn Manipulators

by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

(Post is in the First Comment)

SILVER WEEKLY

3 HIGHER HIGHS NOW SEEKING A THIRD HIGHER LOW…18.50 to 19 looks strong

The most basic definition of a bull market… higher highs and higher lows

SILVER BULL

Fully the Permabully

🙂

Looks like the four horses are ready to Gallop

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p36077525374&a=462000302&listNum=15

The four horses are last five indicators excluding TRIX…

Also looks like Dollar is going to tag the top line before a bounce..

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p99460949253&a=464336973&listNum=15

Elliott Wave Count SLV

I like the clean Elliott Wave count starting from the Dec 2015 low.

5 waves up. A nice clean ABC correction. Then a 1 up, 2 down, 3 up and now 4 down (possibly completing) Then another 5 impulse  wave up.

If this plays out we could see a reversal to the upside soon.

SLV - Primary Analysis - Jul-20 1609 PM (1 day)

JDST 120

120 min is a very good timeline to follow on these things…

JDST 120

What’s decay ?

I’m getting questions regarding decay in the 3X PM trades.

Here is a chart showing this phenomenon…Red and White Candles = GDXJ
Black and White = JDST

I can’t completely explain why this happens but it has something to do with the fact that the 3X leveraged etfs reset every day . Take JDST for example….it moves inverse 3X the price action of GDXJ. If GDXJ drops 5% one day
JDST goes up 15% that day. The rinse and repeat each day. Anyhow its complex BUT look at the chart last time GDXJ was at 44 July 1 JDST was $8. Today it is at 44 and JDST is at $7. This is 12% less even though GDXJ is the same price. This is an important concept to be aware of in trading these things .

DECAY

What a day

Here is my perspective using my own indicators. As I posted a while back I saw a weakness in the YEN vs USD. In retrospect that turned out to be the top in PM’s value wise. (the correlation is uncanny)

The YEN is still in a downtrend against the USD. It could be consolidating it’s gains for a push higher but that is not happening now. I will post when I think the trend in the YEN changes.

The trend is still up for GOLD, SILVER the GDX and GDXJ. They are all short term correcting their gains.

If I think they are starting a major correction I will post that. If it happens.

These are the dog days of summer late July early Aug. I think if the trends above hold, there will be a terrific entry point coming up.

I will also post when I see a good entry point for a fall rally.

 

Kamikazi Traders Report Here First

This Post has been at Rambus’ Site for 4 years now…and I thought it was still appropriate:

WARNING KAMIKAZI TRADING CAN BE FINANCIAL SUICIDE…………….

So You Want to Be a Kamikazi Trader ?

kk1

Here’s The Deal :

Kamikazi Trades are the 3 X Precious Metals Bull and Bear ETFs

DUST – 3X PM Stocks Bear…………….NUGT – 3X PM Stock Bull

DSLV – 3X Comex Silver Bear………….USLV – 3X Comex Silver Bull

DGLD – 3X Comex Gold Bear……………UGLD – 3X Comex Gold Bull

AND NOW the new kamikazi’s on the block

JDST – 3X Junior Miner Bear………….JNUG – 3X Junior Miner Bull

…………….

The Most Volatile of these trades are JDST and JNUG

These vehicles are based on a PM Stock Index ..the GDXJ

Junior PM Stocks exhibit the wildest volatility of all the major market stock sectors

DUST and NUGT and now JDST and JNUG amplify this volatility.. (know as Vomitility at Rambus Chartology)… TIMES 3

They can.. and do.. move 20% in a day ..Plus

And regularly move 5% to 10% in Minutes

……………………..

The Next Most Volatile are the Silvers …followed by the Golds

……………………..

Rambus Has been probably the ONLY PM Analyst who has held Longer Term Positions in these vehicles

He Identified a Bearish Pattern developing in the HUI (PM INDEX) in December 2012

He had been invested in DUST from the Low 30s at that time to a high of 165 on June 26th

His Conviction to hold this vehicle through huge volatility was proven to be correct (if harrowing)

However even Rambus an experienced trader to say the least was humbled by the volatility when

3 weeks after the peak DUST had LOST $100 a share off its Price and a 500% gain was “reduced” to a 200% gain

…. Overnight…literally

…………………………….

After Great Debate about the merits and pitfalls of these 3x PM ETFs and Much Analysis at the Chartology Forum

and After watching new Subscribers jump in with both feet ..(even after a triple and quadruple of the Price of DUST)

and get crushed …we Decided to Require All Present and Future Kamikazi Traders to read this Information

We are calling this the Sir Lostalot Clause

In honor of our nearly departed New Member Sir Lostalot

………………………….

The Lostalot Clause :

1…Do Not Trade the Kamikazis if you are Not an experienced Trader

2…Do not trade the Kamikazis if you are an Emotional Trader ie prone to Excessive bouts of Fear Greed and Panic and Euphoria

3..Do Not Trade the Kamikazis with money you cannot afford to lose

…ie…Retirement Funds…Mortgage Money…Childrens College Funds…or Food Stamps

4…Do Not Trade the Kamikazis if you cannot read charts or do not understand Chartology Yet

5…If You Trade the Kamikazis take full Responsibility for the results

6…If you Trade the kamikazis…use Rambus Chartology as a guide as to the probabilities

and to help you stay predominately on the right side of the trade…do not trade exctly as Rambus does

unless you are totally comfortable with moves of 50% and more up and down in short periods

7…If you make Profits n the Kamikazis ..consider booking a portion of them…try not to overstay your positions

8…If you trade the Kamikazis hang out at the chartology forum with other traders

9…Understand that in Fast Moving Markets the kamikazis actually move MORE that 3X the Underlying asset…for or against you

This is called compounding

10…Understand that in rangebound choppy markets Kamikazi Trades decay and they lose value even as the underlying asset remains unchanged

This is Called Slippage

11…Understand that just because you lost a bundle on being Long the PM Markets and you want to recoup your losses fast

do not just jump on a Kamikaze as soon as you arrive here..

Watch them and learn ..read ALL the Timeless Tutorials and understand charting first

Then wait for a good entry point..based on Rambus Work..and start with Small Bites

12…Good Luck… you will need some of that too !

……………………………………..

OK Killer Go Get Em…Baaaanzaiiiiiiiiii

kk2

Fully

Chart from 7/1 – GDXJ

I was highlighting perceived risk after receiving so many comments about being militantly short at resistance levels and how risky it was to be anything but long during a parabolic gappy rise after gold almost exactly nailed my fib target of $1,371. I thought a 3rd wave was supposed to plough through resistance at those levels and the next stop for gold was $1,500+? Yes, I’m annoyed by some recent comments when I’m about the only one who isn’t even peddling a paid service. I feel like if you are any good at trading, you should get rich with your own trading capital and not subscription fees. My philosophy is building positions at good risk/reward levels, understanding structure, as well as support and resistance. If people are going to be more critical of me just because they are having a bad trading day then this is my last post here.

GDXJ

SCO 2 hour a buy???

SCO 2 Hour

SLV

SLV

GDXJ to gld ratio 2 hour Signaled correction

On July 14 the ratio reverse with bearish divergence. This ratio signal is very reliable at extreme level of TSI.

gdxj to gld 2 hr

GDXJ TO GLD 2 hour ratio signal correction

Rambus HUI Update

https://rambus1.com/2016/07/20/hui-update-284/

$USD

Charts speak louder than words. I know many will claim this time is different.

USD

USO

uso 7-20b

uso 7-20a

Two possible interpretations of USO. Further downside action in oil would be decidedly bearish. IF the H&S top is valid it would portend a 20% drop in oil.

Silver wolfe wave in action

Daily silver wolfe wave…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p53874890397&a=463401652&listNum=15

Bonds Tipped Us Off Again

The breakdown of the exhaustion sequence in TLT once again tipped off the move in the GDX.

TLT

DGAZ Update

Trucking ahead to our next fib target en route to $13+. Yes, amazingly buying support and selling resistance still works 😉

DGAZ

As I’ve pointed out in the past, there are many structural similarities between the PM and Natgas markets/charts right now.

Natgas

GDXJ + GDX

Not sure how anyone could have seen this coming 😉 Don’t worry, the airy exhaustion gap sequence below should provide good support.

GDXJ

GDX

Krystar – here is one of the parabola charts I was following:

GDX

Looks like its a bear kinda day

Finally getting our “correction”

Lets see where it goes

gold-1

1300 to 1305 ?