Credit Spread vs PM Sector or CDNX

Sir Fully: Nice chart of long term rate vs gold.
Evaluating PM sector one has to compare with credit spread.

CDNX is an index related to risk on/off in PM sector.

The chart shows exceptional relation with credit spread HYG/IEF. When credit spread narrows risk is on and vice a versa. But during some period in past the credit spread and CDNX diverged and now seems the relation is back to synch???

This spread showing business activities are going to improve. SO as CDNX will rise with risk in sympathy of risk on. HOPEFULLY.

Spock Global Matrix

Book Mark for Regular Updates on Positions and Results

Study the Rationale on the sidebar and see if this is for you

Knock Your Sox Off Update

Just got an email from a lurker, thanking me for this trade
I forgot All About this actually and never followed up. 🙁

He is playing this via SOXL ( 3 X Long Semiconductors)

He says he bought SOXL at 20 3 times.The third time he was early and stay in after seeing my post on the breakout ( I charted his buys and sells)

He is a firm believer in the Thin Zone and Reverse Symmetry now. LOL.

Apparently he gave up his “career” in Online Poker .

I invited him to join as a poster. He says he is content to just lurk.

Kicking my self for taking my eye off this ball.


PS…He asked if I had any more advice

I said Yes ! Sell !

Is it time for most things to go up together for a while?

I have been saying that it would make sense to me if we see SM having a blow off before PM, in fact, I have even said that I almost see it as necessary in order for PM to be able to have its blow off down the road. I have also said that I see almost everything going up together at some point for a while.

I just thought I´d post the SM charts below as I think they show that SM might be on its way to a blow off before its bull ends.

And we have the same parabola-like pattern looking at my favourite sector during a very possible blow off, $SOX/$NWX, below.

And looking at individual companies among $SOX/$NWX, the two below are among the best setups I have found. Both are BT a gigantic inverse h&s.

Moving to bonds and TLT, I would say we go up from here, below.

And if we look at $SPX vs TLT below, posted before, we see that it looks like $SPX is going to outperform TLT. This chart I think also confirms my take that heavy deflation is not in the cards at this stage, asset inflation is still in play.

So, I think that SM might be starting its blow off stage around here. And I think this might be the point where many things start to go up together and that might be the case until SM has some kind of blow off.

Gold and Interest Rates

Dueling Forkology

Forking amazing

Continuing on inflation

Continuing from this thread because it opens the door for great discussion…

A Most Interesting Chart

We just got 2 rate hikes in 4 months – acknowledgement inflation is here.

Given whats coming down the pipe policy-wise ( tax/deregulation), how the hell are analysts not pounding the table on PMs here?  Does anybody not think inflation will stay steady as a result of these policies?

If it does, we could be at the gentleman’s entry of the decade on PMs.

Dont forget folks, we also have an administration that seems to want a weaker USD as DXY sits near multi year highs,  and GLD near multi year lows.

And what happens when the FED cant raise rates above 2.5% or so, because national debt is still $20 trillion+? Are we talking run away inflation and therefore PMs?

I dont see a star that isnt aligned. Unlesss one of these factors drastically changes.


$HUI vs $XJY Weekly Charts


Correlation between these two is pretty clear. (I’ve never come across a convincing explanation for this relationship myself, if anyone

has one I’d be very interested to hear it. )


$XJY looks as though it wants to try for at least the SMA 200, which if the correlation between these two holds, is further reason why

the miners will likely continue to have a bounce from here.

UUP Charts

Support @ 25.40 – 25.60 IMO:

If Le Pen were to lose the French Presidential election (deadline 7th May), the ECB would not have to worry about any populist revolt

coming from France if they were to begin raising interest rates.


I also think this chart is pretty instructive in terms of explaining why Uncle Buck is struggling to rise further from current levels:

Video Update: Short-Term Upside but How Much..?