oil short.. exact tag of the long term trend line

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DUST 5…

dust
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&id=p43550170780&listNum=1&a=388441676

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Dollar Update

Not certain what the count is… just going to watch and let it evolve… But one thing is for certain there is at least one more low for the Dollar.  Note, the EWO broke below the previous low peak… We should be getting a small correction, indicators are turning up – trigger line cross on CCI.

0610_UUP

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DWTI Awaiting Buy Confirmation from MACD 40,80,30

dwti

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DWTI&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p10013845069&a=410189089&listNum=1

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Matrix Right Again!!!

Where is Matrix when you need him…. Carry trade unwinding, YEN being talked up, but it should fall again… YEN Daily Chart is saying we’re in an abc correction — 5 down… 3 up… 5 down to come. But we need to watch this. If this 3-wave corrective turns into 5-waves we’re screwed…

0610_YEN

2 Hour chart is very bullish right now… Gap Up Rules apply!!

0610_YEN2HR

Wow!!! look at that beautiful divergence on the EWO…. That is the Classic Formation!!!!

 

 

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WTI update

WTI 60 Jun 10

WTI 60 Jun 10

I hate it when crude makes significant movements outside of ETF trading hours but in this case it prevented me from selling at a lower price than I would have.  I think it’s reversing now and heading down to another bottom in the next few days.

WTI 60 Jun 10 detail

WTI 60 Jun 10 detail

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log version gdxj parabola

it way to early to tell if this is a true rejection and if it will hold.. this is really the first true hit of the log version so its unproven….. just might be an area of interest

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gdxj parabola ive been following.. two projected hits so far…. gdxj needs to crash and burn at the open ..or it might be toast for this parabola

i did not tweak this parabola to fit.. the points are exact and it projected the last two hits.  This one is linear. there is also a log version which has one near miss hit which allows for higher up .. to about 26.68…

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PBR…

pbr

MACD resetting ready to cross back up
Bouncing off 50 MA
13 is “kissing” 34 and bouncing up

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GDXJ 2HR EW Update

Couple of targets for (iii) of C, the 100% MM target of the ABC 23.95 and more likely the 161.8% Projection  of 22.59. (The projection is calculated from the Pts 27.29(b), 25.09(A), and 26.15 (B))… I use the forex calculator  found here: http://www.actionforex.com/resources/tools/fibonacci-calculator-200603205723/

0609_GDXJ_2HR_EW

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Rick’s Pick

$ GCQ15 – August Gold (Last:1176.10)

Updated June 9, 7:53 p.m. EDT

We have enough downside targets in play at the moment to keep us on our toes, but this chart allows a more optimistic outlook for the near-term. Notice the very precise bounce from the 1161.70 midpoint pivot.  This validates the pattern itself, along with its p2 (1126.10) and D (1090.60) coordinates. To put those bearish targets in play, however, the futures would first need to breach p=1161.70. Since this has yet to occur, we needn’t necessarily expect the worst. To the contrary, if bulls were about to become resurgent, the first evidence of this we might expect to see would be a major downtrend reversing from its midpoint Hidden Pivot support, as may be occurring here. The futures were a speculative buy from 1161.70 in any case, but they could also be bought belatedly. Specifically, night owls can try bottom-fishing with an 1175.20 bid, stop 1174.80. That first number is the midpoint pivot of this pattern on the 15-minute  chart:   a=1180.30 (June 9 at 10:00 a.m.); b=1174.60; and c=1178.00.

0609_RickNitely

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GDX 2HR EW Update

Looks like my (ii) of C completed today at approximately the 23.6% retrace at 19.23. We should be going down now in 5 waves to (iii) of C at around the 161.8% projection of 16.51.  So at least from an EW standpoint we’re heading down but we need to keep an eye on the GDX Weekly Chart.

0609_GDX_2HR_EW_Update

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GDX BACK TEST…

GDX

LT Indicators are bearish. During an impulse move down forget about the ST indicators…
The noted trend line is “HOT”…

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OK Fully I put NEM to the Test

Looking at the 2HR Chart EWO hit a new low (draw the line). CCI(10) however, got a trigger line cross as did the FastSTO.  I’d look for an abc to form on the FastSTO (e.g., up then back down for a trigger line cross). By then the RSI(5) should cross. As always wait for SlowSTO to turn up, you may lose a few pennies but it guarantees no further downside. I see this chart moving up starting tomorrow for about 3-4 days. Then down she goes for one more low at least. Need to see price divergence on EWO.  If the EWO goes lower below the line I just drew then you can expect even more downside….

0609_NEM

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Well Nadia thinks the Dollar is going up (From FREE Newsletter)

Forex Trading Alert: EUR/USD vs. Resistance Zone

June 9, 2015, 3:47 PM Nadia SImmons

Forex Trading Alert originally sent to subscribers on June 9, 2015, 8:19 AM.

Although EUR/USD moved sharply lower yesterday, the exchange rate reversed and erased some of earlier gains as uncertainty over Greek debt negotiations weighed on investors’ sentiment. Will we see further deterioration in the coming days?

In our opinion the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:

  • EUR/USD: Short positions (stop-loss order at 1.1667)
  • GBP/USD: Short positions (stop-loss order at 1.5913)
  • USD/JPY: none
  • USD/CAD: Long positions (stop-loss order at 1.1706)
  • USD/CHF: none
  • AUD/USD: Short positions (stop-loss order at 0.8194)

EUR/USD

The situation in the medium term hasn’t changed much as EUR/USD is still trading around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Today, we’ll focus on the very short-term changes and find out what can we infer from the daily chart.

EUR/USD - the daily chart

Looking at the daily chart, we see that the green support zone triggered a sharp rebound, which took EUR/USD to the orange resistance zone created by the 76.4% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels and the short-term red resistance line. In the previous week, this area was strong enough to stop further rally. As you see on the above chart, the history repeated itself and EUR/USD reversed and declined earlier today. Taking this fact into account, it seems that the pair will extend drops and we’ll see another test of the green support line in the coming day(s). Please keep in mind that another sizable move to the downside will be more likely if we see a daily close below the 50-day moving average and the green support area.

Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (which are profitable) with a stop-loss order at 1.1667 are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - the monthly chart

USD/JPY - the daily chart

Quoting our Friday’s Forex Trading Alert:

(…) If the exchange rate breaks above the June high of 125.04, we’ll likely see an increase to around 125.71 (the 200% Fibonacci extension)(…)

On the daily chart, we see that currency bulls took USD/JPY higher (as we expected) and the exchange rate reached our upside target. Despite this improvement, the 200% Fibonacci extension stopped further rally, triggering a pullback, which took the pair to the red dashed support line. Earlier today, currency bulls pushed the exchange rate lower, which means that we’ll see a test of the recent lows (and the Jun 2007 high marked on the monthly chart). If this area withstands the selling pressure, USD/JPY will rebound from here and test the red dashed line, which serves now as resistance. Nevertheless, taking into account sell signals generated by the daily indicators, it seems that we’ll see lower values of the exchange rate in the coming days. If this is the case, and the pair drops under the green support zone, we’ll see a decline to around 123.18, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (based on the recent upward move) is.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: bullish

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - the daily chart

In our last commentary on this currency pair, we wrote:

(…) the exchange rate reached the green support zone. Taking into account the medium-term picture and the current position of the indicators (…) it seems that USD/CHF will rebound from here (…) the initial upside target would be the brown (upper border of the triangle) and blue (the upper line of the declining trend channel) lines – currently around 0.9420.

From today’s point of view, we see that the situation developed in line with the above scenario and USD/CHF reached our upside target. With Friday’s upswing, the pair re-tested the orange resistance zone (created by the Mar and Apr lows and the long-term red line), which stopped further improvement and triggered a sharp decline to the green support zone. Earlier today, USD/CHF slipped below it, which is a negative signal – especially when we factor in the fact that today’s drop took the pair also under the lower border of the brown triangle. If currency bulls do not invalidate this breakdown in the following hours, and the exchange rate closes the day below these levels, it would be a bearish signal, which will likely trigger further deterioration. In this case, the initial downside target would be around 0.9070-0.9080, where the May lows are. On the other hand, if the green area withstands the selling pressure, the pair will test the brown and blue resistance lines once again.

Can we infer something more from the weekly chart? Let’s find out.

USD/CHF - the weekly chart

Looking at the weekly chart, we see that the upper border of the brown declining trend channel triggered a sharp decline, which took USD/CHF below the long-term green support line. This is a negative sign, which suggests further deterioration and a drop to around 0.9194, where the lower long-term red support line is.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief

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EOD Update – JDST, NUGT, UUP

JDST looks good… Buy signal this morning at 7.34.  Note circles on chart where we got trigger line crosses.  If my EW count is right my (i)=(v) target sits at 8.97.  EWO is about right for the indicators. Slow grinding day does not bode well in my view. The key to watch is EWO, when price reaches 8.15, and our key indicators – CCI, RSI, FastSTO, and SlowSTO.  If we get trigger line crosses on our indicators to the downside and EWO peak is below our last peak, then the upside potential is over….

0609_JDST_EOD

Now look at NUGT… we are very close to a turn.  I think this fact will limit the upside potential for JDST.  When we get a buy signal on NUGT… i.e., trigger line crosses on key indicators and especially on the SlowSTO, I will bail on my shorts. I will keep an eye on the GDX Weekly Chart, posted earlier, to see how close we are to a turn on that chart.  A positive turn on the Weekly GDX would signal a trend change for trading the swings on the 2HR Charts.

0609_NUGT_EOD

And, lastly, one last look at the Dollar chart… Note price divergence on EWO. This could mean the low is in but I would like to see one more higher peak with a lower price (but not necessary)… Trigger line crosses on all indicators then went mushy. This is telling me the uptrend move is not strong. We may drag out some more…. But when a buy signal is generated JDST should go up. However, as we saw in NUGT’s chart it’s getting ready to rumble… SPY looked positive at EOD… market should be going up…

0609_UUP_EOD

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hmm .. that large spike down is on my esignal feed also (gdxj)

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trek trader.. on the one minute gdxj chart on think or swim had one of those erroneous down spikes down to 24.41

i know you sometimes make reference those; not sure if it means much or not

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Newmont Leads

-5%
Today

NEM

2

NGAS: some possible trendlines

NGAS 60 Jun 9

NGAS 60 Jun 9

The lines are all based off the one that formed the upper channel line in the last rally.   The blue top line is a guess from joining up some things over a longer term on the daily chart:

NGAS Daily Jun 9

NGAS Daily Jun 9

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WTI mountain climbing update

WTI 60 Jun 9

WTI 60 Jun 9

After some long farewells in the valley WTI is once again climbing up to a mountain top.  I’ve drawn a number of lines, maybe too many lines, but WTI has already broken through what was the most important resistance line on it’s last climb, the solid blue line (upper one).  The top line has two possibilities: dotted purple and dotted blue.  I’m not sure which line will turn it downwards but you can see in the next chart how the lines are drawn consider how they might work:

WTI 60 longer range Jun 9

WTI 60 longer range Jun 9

The bright, lime green channel is new and dates from the last climb which became a bearish wedge pattern.  It’s very steep and at least lately has had quite an influence over price action.  In fact, it almost forms an upward channel at the moment.  The gold channel, which dates back to the mid-March beginning of crude’s recovery and current rally seems to be holding well also.

My guess is the upper purple line although the upper dotted blue which is part of the blue channels is likely also since the blue channels have connected the tops for the last month and a half.  Things get cloudy up near the top…

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GDX and GLD Update

Both GDX and GLD are moving up in Wave 2’s. Remember 5 waves up for the ‘a’, 3-wave corrective down for the ‘b’, and 5 waves up for the ‘c’ . Both stocks appear to be in a iv of ‘a’ right now.

Trigger line crosses to the upside on JDST 2HR. I’m looking for at least a retest of the previous high per the EWO. With the trend change in the Dollar, I’m not so Bullish on JDST.

Trigger line crosses now on NUGT 2HR to the downside. I’m watching NUGT now for a buy signal. That will be validation to get out of my shorts.

This is when to watch the indicators. EW gives us a roadmap. The indicators tell us what is really happening and when to trade.

 

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Mike Swanson says SELL

http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/11685

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Phase III PM Bear Methodically Working its way through the Sector

Knights, as I have stated it’s my hypothesis that we entered Phase III last fall and have been elevated just below the October break down point in a complex backtest. Soon we will proceed with overall index price capitulation. Meanwhile Mr. Bear is cleaning up the malinvestments made during the bull market. The GDXJ has now undergone volume capitulation. Comical selling remains ahead. Here is just a taste of what Mr. Bear has feasted on over the past 4 years which have recently given up the ghost

sc-1300 sc-1301 sc-1302 sc-1303 sc-1304

3

Spock for 9 June

SPOCK TRADE POSITION FOR 9 JUN 15

Yesterday bought TBT (X2 short TLT treasuries)

Comment: More sectors joining the short bias camp. Looking to short XLU later this week after a bounce, as XLU bear cross in play. Also TLT now has a confirmed bear cross on the daily with 50/200 crossover at the close.

TLT

XLU

1

Dollar Reversal – Updated

**********************************************************************************

UPDATED – New Count

**********************************************************************************

Not much to say but it sure messed up my charts. New count below.  After this minor (v) down completes (and it can be called complete at the 61.8% mark), we go up in 3 waves then back down in 5 waves. Chart indicators are starting to turn up therefore getting close to a correction.

0609_UUP2HRUpdate

30 Minute Chart gives a better idea of the current count.

0609_30MinDollar

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GDX Update – New Charts

GDX Weekly starting to look BULLISH. CCI, RSI, and SlowSTO are close to trigger line crosses. FastSTO has crossed. ULT pointing up which is Bullish. I expected the minor (ii) to have a little more downside. This is the Weekly chart so let’s look at the Daily and 2 Hour.

0609_GDXWeekly

Note that I have brought the Daily and 2 Hour GLD and GDX charts inline with each other. They have very similar charts right now.

GDX Daily trigger line crosses across the board to the upside today pretty much confirms that minor (i) has completed and we’re headed up into minor (ii). Note that the Fib Projection for minor (i) was 18.13 and we got 18.67. I’m looking for a retrace to either the 50 or 61.8% Fib. A 50% retrace would be normal for a wave 2… Based on a retrace to the 50% Fib, minor (iii) could extend down to 14.84 which would be at the 161.8% Fib retracement. A 38% retrace normal for a wave 4 would put minor (iv) at about 17.25 then down. These projections actually surpass the 100% measured move target or 15.32 for the ABC.

0609_GDXDaily

GDX 2HR: Trigger line crosses across the board. EWO price divergence achieved. Minor (ii) target should be reached in a day or two in an abc fashion

0609_GDX2Hour

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GLD Update

GLD Daily… Trigger line crosses across the board pretty much confirm that minor (i) has completed and we’re headed up into minor (ii). Note that the Fib Projection for minor (i) was 111.50 and we got 111.57. I’m looking for a retrace to either the 50 or 61.8% Fib. A 50% retrace would be normal for a wave 2… Based on a retrace to the 50% Fib, minor (iii) could extend down to 104.75 which would be at the 161.8% Fib. A 38% retrace normal for a wave 4 would put minor (iv) at about 109.52 then down. The 100% measured move target would be around the 102 area….

0609_GLD

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FGC–Your Daily Gold Trend Line Held Strong Resistance Today…

GOLD

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p26310354159&listNum=1&a=410006229

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NUGT 60 with Diagonal Trend line that has reacted 10 Times…

Buy signals on NUGT today as expected. However, watching this trend line with interest…
nugt
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p12569302962&listNum=1&a=385256974

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