How many here have been an board this Ride from the Start .
Monthly Line Chart…The simplest of simple
Bull Years…………50 to 600 … Up 1200% in 10 years
Bear Years (so far) ..600 to 150…Down 75% in 3 1/2 years
(Buy and Holders from 2001 are still up 200% )
Notice the Mother of All Negative Divergences..the RSI has been falling since 2003 !
Sometimes we need to go simple
So many conditions for a big move ahead. The problem I don’t know which way. I try my best to guess it could be up. EUR opens lower in Asian, this a clue for going up. It probably a trap made by the manipulators . They could be making up some bearish stories out there to lure in more victims but I don’t care.I don’t event bother to read the news. For a longer perspective, Larry Williams’ VixFix and Blast off could tell EUR probably going up. ADX crossing up and down crazily , it emphasizes those price levels too important.All in all, EUR could explode. How far ? I have no idea, depends on how many fishes out there get lured. When ? What hour ? Could be anytime of the day. The EU summit discusses all day long. Be prepared !
ALSO, this is an excellent link to follow http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5
Refreshes on its own.
I’m not suggesting to bet the farm, as the DUST degrades like an option. So it’s really a POS unless you get the waterfall going. It looks tempting here. sooo tempting
The GDX only gave us a corrective bounce into Monday and the solar-lunar cycles indicated a short-term peak – this argues for more weakness in the short term.
Our bias is that the ES will rally to test highs by early March while gold continues to back test the rally from November. Trader Jack
A classic manipulation needs a set up as following:
– a quite market for a couple of days
– low volatility, low ADX reading. The longer the better
– in a triangle, even better
– a big news coming
– going in one direction all day before the news released. Kind of trap or lure
So trading USD/JPY on NFP Friday last week was a perfect example of how to piggyback . I did not bother to listen the news that might be a good reading or not but I knew something going for this pair before the news coming out. USDJPY was going down all day before 830EST, it was a good signal that the manipulators would move the market in an opposite direction. I bough at Thursday and Wenzday Highs. This market moved so fast and so big due to many stop- losses activated. A 200 pip move was enough for a home run
NR4 is a concept from Toby Crable. The range of the day smallest comparing to those of previous 3 days.Linda’s Coil is from Linda Raschke Bradford. The range of the day engulfed by the range of previous 2 days.Please tell me whether I can post pics here or not in order to save your bandwidth. I can not use stockchart.Thanks
Gold and the GDX made a low at the 34-day Fibonacci step out on Friday after the NFP jobs report. However, money flow into gold stocks was weak last week as hedge funds appear to be shorting the GDX against the SPX. Solar-lunar cycles argue for a big move to start on Tuesday – which way is the question here.
Taking out the Friday lows in the GDX and gold will be bearish for a large move down. However, the GDX may have ended an important correction on Friday and we could see a reversal higher. Today’s tape will tell us. Trader Jack
Here are a set of charts for review. The 4 hr is not a trade-able signal vs the 1 hr for entries I use 30 and 15 sequencing. Other than scalping a little DUST on Wed no positions. For today and this week let’s see the bounce, and the 30 min 1 hr and 15 get over bot. Say a DUST down to low 12s ? Thinking 12.5 area or lower.
Anyone interested in a private consult or a site to follow let me know. 3xtraders at gmail we have a small trading group on Skype that is live contributors welcomed
For those interested…
I am going to follow DUST instead of JDST…Fewer “false” signals; thus, easier to trade.
Just scanning my weekend charts and thought some of these tell quite a convincing story. I thought I would share:
THE USD. Amazing the contrast in the move of the USD vs gold and silver over the past 3 years. Makes the gold bugs and the Keynesians scratch their heads together. Note this recent bump up in gold and silver and how gold provided an important relative strength contrast. That’s not bullish. Silver should outpace gold in a bull market. The long term chart of the USD shows how it stalled out right at the 50% Fib for the bear run from 2001-2008. The RSI 88 is capping this move. My suspicions are we consolidate and correct here then resume the bull to the upside. I show two possibilities for the consolidation. Also notice how the stochastics are set up to reverse after reaching 98.42 which is the highest in the 16 year series shown, although they won’t confirm the move until below 78. We got a 7 month impulse count…its time for a rest
GDXJ- Mini Diamond top and classic 3 phases. As you all know I have used chartology to apply to Robert Rhea’s 3 psychological phases of a bull/bear market developed in the 1930’s. My unique original discovery is that we can actually apply phase categories to the price action which match the psychological phases. These patterns follow rules seen in bull and bear markets alike. The sequence I have discovered is:
Phase I- Initial top with break down.
Phase II- recovery, usually BMR#1, followed by extended decline leading to a POR which is normally a high volume crash. Post crash prolonged consolidation usually inclusive of several BMRs
Phase III – Breakdown from the phase II consolidation.
That’s the typical structure of a severe bear market. Rambus has often said the gold bull market was the purest form of a bull market from a chartology perspective. I must say this is true for the following chart in the bear sense. As frustrating as it has been to all of us it has followed all of these patterns. Note the minor H&S breakdown formed which completed its phase I. In character it set up a much larger H&S to run concurrently. Note the massive backtest of its breakdown during its first BMR in the summer of 2012. This was all pure classic action. So now while solidly in phase II the first BMR sucked in all the true believers with its first BMR then went onto a long extended decline. The slide in the winter of 2013 finally reached a head when Goldman gave it an extra push during the great Goldman bear raid of April 2013, panic ensued. We then entered the classic phase II post POR consolidation which lasted 18 months until October 2014. With the violation of that consolidation to the downside we then entered Phase III. Its been a frustrating Phase III to say the least since we have spent most of that time consolidating and back testing that initial breakout into the phase. But note on the weekly stochastic that we may be topping here at 77.77 which is a much lower top than the previous 3 BMRs in phase II. We would expect that. Same with the RSI which died at 51%, again that’s what we would expect. So one can see how pure this bear has been to the rules and principles discovered of bear market phases.
Next is the little mini 1 hour GDXJ topping pattern encompassing all of 2015. Most impressive is the dashed line off the diamond top is acting as resistance. It appears the top has been established.
GDX – since we are talking gold stocks… A review of the GDX is in order. The same analysis can be applied as the GDXJ, however the GDXJ is so pure in its representation. We are familiar with the price action as the current BMR has been very aggressive and has served to suck the believers back in apparently. Note the weaker volume in the second half of this ending BMR. But the big tell is in the Stochastics and the RSI. The weekly stochastic is a pretty loud klaxon that this thing is topping. The confirmation comes with a weekly close below 78 and it is now 77.07. Note I use Stochastic %K 10 whereas 14 is conventional. The on balance volume (Joe Granville RIP) is at critical support to also confirm. Lastly the RSI is a big tell as it peaked lower than the previous 2 BMRs. The last 3 candles have tails on the top with bodies below the 39 WMA. We wait for the MACD to confirm, but this is topping action.
When we zoom in on the weekly BMR chart we have what I call my I-Beam indicator. The 200 DMA acted like an I-Beam stopping the rally in its tracks. And now it looks like it just gave it up. Note how everything else has given it up. RSI just dipped below 50 and the MACD has crossed over and is accelerating downward, histograms going negative. Oh, and don’t miss that last volume bar.
OIL and BONDS They go together actually. As oil prices rise one would think yields would rise. Guess what, that’s what we got this week. Its amazing we got the first bounce in the oil market right when it hit the line off the bottom. Can you say dead cat bounce?
Now look at the 10 year. I have showed this before however I have added a new NL and labeled it S&R Rail. Holy cow this was a perfect measured move for the breakdown in yields. So Oil and Bonds bounced right where these could be expected to. So I would expect yields to petter out somewhere between the 50/200DMA on the 10Y. If I had to guess right between 2.10-2.15%
Finally I thought the CDNX looked interesting since it is putting in a pattern, maybe a bear flag, right where one would expect, at the 2008 bottom. Now this also is a pretty pure form Phase chart of a bear market. You can map out all the standard patterns we see in a severe bear. Note the stochastics are indicating a possible rally here. I would guess this is a halfway consolidation/bear flag to the downside. The CDNX is made up of lots of junior golds and oils. Another clue that oil goes lower I think. In all long term chartology can provide pretty strong predictive power.
This week the market generated a WROC signal. This signal usually precedes an uptrend confirmation. Over the past 50+ years its success rate has been 96%
Last time this WROC signal flashed, I ignored and was wrong. I was bearish today up until I read this report. EW does hold merit with the longer trend.
meanwhile US NFP says unemployment just keeps dropping and getting better. give us a break. fudge the numbers as much as they want but the BDI tells the truth. global trade is collapsing with no buy signal evident. TSI below zero line says this is a short. meanwhile stock markets keep going up.
the H&S PO is well below 500. that says a lot.
the equities markets are totally irrational.