Patty’s HUI chart…………$YEN will get you there

Excellent chart Patty, love the timeframe plays in with Armstrong’s 2015 Gold low and if the YEN continues its devaluation along with the Euro$ its a very possible PO….One trend at a time…Good Luck!!

4 Horsemen HUI…for those watching the current trend in play

http://tinyurl.com/qjjm3sl

Patty’s chart that will have the Gold Manipulators and Goldbuggers absolutely left in ruins….so be it, as they continue to read the Wrong Maps!!

Big Capital Flows move the markets NOT Opinions

http://tinyurl.com/nfmvbbp

Sterling and the 4 Horsemen

Remember Momentum is like a Windsock to a Pilot

A NO vote should send the UK stock market higher along with the Pound, a YES vote and confidence will be driving these UK markets, lack of that is, and that’s what every Central Bank fears “Loss of Confidence”….trade that, good luck!

http://tinyurl.com/q9nyok3

i found this news interesting as martrix had posted the vote upcoming with the scots later this month

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/Irish-politician-warns-United-Ireland-referendum-next-if-Scots-vote-for-independence.html

long term yen chart.. all lines cloned from the top line.. the symetry is interesting… sorry if this chart may hint at po’s; oh noo….

gdx parabola.. might be worth keeping an eye on with the bounce we had off it on friday

YEN-MONTHLY–PUBLIC CHART FROM MARK REAVIS

YEN

PitchFork does some excellent Fork’en Chart work

on the Gold, GDXJ, GDX, GG, HUI and SLW charts

http://www.pitchforkplayground.com/newsletter-blog/2014/9/7/pitchfork-playground-newsletter-7-september-2014

Data out of Japan this eve

itachi no saigoppeh!!….A Weasel’s Last Fart

This phrase comes from the fact that itachi (Japanese minks or weasels) emit a highly unpleasant smell when cornered or facing danger, and is used to describe a desperate act by someone in a troubled situation, something done as a last resort.

Well the last chart at this Zerohedge link sould have the siren calling all Kamikaze traders to short the living life out of $YEN and while they are at it smack $Gold so that KWNuts can bring out all the crying Manipulators.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-07/omgodzilla-japanese-macro-data-revisions-even-more-disastrous-expected

Follow up to above data this eve

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-07/shinzo-abes-six-most-worrisome-charts

This is exactly what Armstrong is talking about especially in Europe, regardless of how bad these countries economies are higher TAXATION is coming….when has there ever been growth off higher taxes…Japan is looking to increase their consumer consumption Tax to 10% (now 8%) by Oct 2015 and to 20% by 2020…

Take out 95/105.26 and 93/107.52 comes into play followed by a very key level @ 90.90/111

http://tinyurl.com/p6y9aad

FORTUNE COOKIE….He Who Shorts Gold Off Weaker $YEN Make Own Fortune

Matrix Can you comment on this Piece (The Yen Carry Trade )

Posted by Robo at the Chartology Forum

Seems a little stretched to this layman

………………..

Carry Trade: The Multi-Trillion Dollar Hidden Market

The dollar is soaring. The U.S. stock market is making new highs. U.S. T-bond yields are declining, causing T-bond prices to rise while all the experts say they are too overvalued. European government bonds actually yield less than U.S. Treasuries, which makes no sense because the U.S. bonds are considered much safer. Many analysts confess that they are mystified.

What is the driving force for these moves? The “carry trade.”

What is the carry trade? It’s the borrowing of a currency in a low interest rate country, converting it to a currency in a higher interest rate country and investing it in the highest rated bonds of that country. The big trading outfits do this with leverage of 100 or 300 to one. This causes important moves in the financial markets, made possible by the trillions of dollars of central bank money creation.

The monetary stimulus in Japan is aimed to produce a cheaper yen, and thus a stronger dollar. That causes the U.S. bond market to rise, bond yields to decline, commodity prices to plunge, and precious metals prices to decline. If you are in any of these investments, you must know what drives their prices.

Here is how the “yen carry trade,” a favorite currency for the trade, basically works now:
?Hedge funds and other very big traders borrow the yen at very, very low interest rates now approaching zero.
?The yen are converted to dollars, which are invested in U.S. Treasuries at a much higher yield than the interest cost for the borrowed yen. That creates a “positive carry” because of the differential in interest rates.
?The buying drives up U.S. bond prices. The traders accrue big profits, when done with high leverage, assuming the yen value doesn’t rise.
?Additional profits are made when a) The dollar rises vs. the yen as the BOJ intends, b) U.S. Treasuries rise in price (as is happening)
?Triple Profits: A leverage 100:1 means that a 1% rise in the value of the dollar vs. yen doubles the value of the equity investment. An additional profit is made if the U.S. T-bonds rise in price as they have done. Further profits are made from the positive carry, i.e. when the yield on the T-bonds is greater than the interest cost on the yen. That’s a “triple profit.”
?So far, so good. And that’s what is happening now. Some of the profits are probably reinvested in the stock market for diversification.

The emerging markets have benefited from this as well. The currencies of the lower-interest countries like Japan or the U.S. are borrowed and invested in the much higher-yielding bonds of emerging countries. The danger is that when one of these countries has trouble paying the interest on its debt, there is a huge unwinding of this trade, hundreds of billions of dollars flow out, and an emerging market crisis produces a world-wide market crash. That’s what happened in 1997 and 1998. The emerging markets carry trade is estimated to be at least $2 trillion in size. That’s huge.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2014/09/04/carry-trade-the-multi-trillion-dollar-hidden-market/

So many key levels in play this coming week

CDNX…Gold and Gold stock Bearish

http://tinyurl.com/n3jlwfp

EURO$ 127.55 revisited?

http://tinyurl.com/m9boj9c

Pound Sterling reacting to a possible Scottish Yes Vote..=..Fireworks!!

http://tinyurl.com/njmy3as

GDX Weekly chart RSI Divergence in play, yet TSI just rolling over-Bearish

http://tinyurl.com/nbf4lyv

GDXJ Weekly chart RSI Divergence in play, yet again TSI rolling over-Bearish

http://tinyurl.com/ol9vhnd

Silver Weekly, a Rambus chart with PO…Yikes!!

http://tinyurl.com/kpldjtb

The #1 Gold Indicator…Mr $YEN…If not for the War Drums Gold would be testing $1240 if not the Very Hot $1200 level

http://tinyurl.com/lmzky2m

HUI Weekly, nothing Bullish here

http://tinyurl.com/lk44rxu

Later this eve after Asia opens

I’ll post some charts that are at key levels once again suggesting either a false breakdown or we are heading into another layer of the bear market within the pm’s sector.

On second thought I’m not going to comment about KWNuts…I wouldn’t know where the H to start!

CHEER$!…enjoy the day……….

Perhaps THE most important chart in play now

Rambus highlighted a chart that shows a very, very key level in play that could very well flip gold (example many sectors will be effected) over into a lower trading channel either side of the Hot Neck Line of $1200 and sub $1000

Everyone should make this chart and keep it on their radar, currencies effect EVERYTHING…..the Monthly chart showing the Large Rounding Bottom since 2001

With my background could we see a 110 US$ Index again, you bet, I’m I basing any of my trades on that PO or outcome, no way!….lets trade off 1 trend at a time. IF Armstrong is correct calling for a Par Euro$ than a much higher US$ Index will unfold as BIG Money from around the world flows into the US, exchanging their currency for US$’s to buy Apple shares, whole company take overs , real estate etc

This chart is a must watch…………Thanks! Rambus

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47205.html

The first real upset inside the currency markets could be the results of the separation vote in the UK, this could get real H’ugly!!

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47180.html

The RIM curse

Everyone is aware of Research-In-Motion one of the DotCom darling stocks. I think everyone in the office owned RIM shares and most made fantastic % gains as it was a GrandSlam % gainer.

That stock effected professional traders in their day to day trading for awhile afterwards until our NY boss held a floor meeting suggesting RIM was a traders curse…NOT EVERY TRADE IS A RIM…..forget about it and trade the trend in front of you.

Many of us have had Big winners from owning whatever, great that was then this is now, forget about it, trade what the trend indicators/momentum gives you and forget about hitting a GrandSlam with every position….the odds are not in anyones favour with that approach, because its opinion related, your opinion!

CA$H as a position………..say what!?!?

FGC calls it Flatlandia

To really dumb down my point if Gold is going to $900 or $50Gs than does one need to be onboard every wiggle and squibble

Some of my best positions have been sitting on my hands holding my wallet.

How does one put a $ value on this approach which is a Tweaked approach to $ cost averaging …..if your going to add might as well add during On Sale Days and this approach Only Works during a Bull market so obviously the example is on a US equity chart.

Last On-Sale add zone was mid Aug….not now!

http://tinyurl.com/oupl5wy

My Fav Silver stock to trade FVI.TO…..sitting on ones wallet after a nice % gain profit…..aggressive traders using the Tweaked indicators bought into a Whip trade losing est .15 per share, nothing really but following all 4 Horsemen had one sitting on their hands since $6.00..traditional MACD save me from a long position Aug 13th

http://tinyurl.com/p7h9ptq

You don’t always have to be in it to win……………

Matrix ..A Chart for You before you Go

YENLT
From this long term chart its is OBVIOUS why the yen Stops Here at least for now

38% Fib and Horizontal Support

BUT there is unfinished downside to the bottom line and 50% Fib

Yen 85 = Gold 1050

Eagle

Here is the GDXJ Hourly

Do you agree there is a strong hidden divergence

Suggesting more Down ?

also note the perfect backtest created on the day end ramp up

gdxj

However BOTH TSI indicators are crossed and pointing UP

This is a conundrum

Will Matrix TSI’s Win out or Muslheads Hidden Divergences win out ?

The more I learn the confuseder I gets

Eagle re Yen Divergence

I am using the RSI 14 (the traditional RSI)

and there is no divergence

You are using the RSI 5

This is a much faster indicator

so it would show many more divergences

The faster the indicator the more it twists and turns and the more false readings (whipsaws)

This is why Matrix uses both the fast and conventional TSI

The Fast turns on a dime but he waits for the traditional to turn before getting positioned

which one is the ‘Right” one to use for divergences ?

Does Edwards and Magee clarify this ?

yen

YEN Daily Divergences

yen daily

Hidden Divergence trumps Divergence ?

Black lines on rsi and price….are diverging …this is a hidden divergence…. which actually manifested as it would predict

IF we had seen this hidden divergence we could have expected the downward trend to continue..as it has

Muslhead always said the hiden divergence takes prescident

These divergences get pretty tricky

gdxj

GDXJ FIBS…

GDXJ FIBS

The Matrix Page

For those who wish to follow all his posts and refer back to them from time to time

http://matrix.goldtadise.com

Linked on the sidebar as well

Rules and Regulations

 

monster-discipline

 

 

 

Next Week a New Trend?

Marty has highlighted Sept 9th as a possible turning point, in the past these have no been Major trend changes just changes.

YTD the reaction off US NFP data is highlighted on the chart below, will it repeat, I have no idea, its just been the trend for 2014 (I didn’t look back into 2012-13)

We all here know the NFP data has been a bigger influence than Yellen’s FOMC meetings…obviously Draghi had a big reaction this week off his actions.

With that in mind everyone one here imo should have already had this chart on their Radar screens, if not WTF

Its part of the many Spokes in the Wheel every precious metal sector investor needs to watch.

http://tinyurl.com/n55ac8b

Sunday I’ll post some currency charts based on what the banks who move those markets predict will be unfolding over the next few Quarters

CHEER$!

Chart of US$ Up!….Gold Up!….Dow Down!!

There have been times when the US$ is rising, Gold is rising as the Dow gets whacked hard….will this be repeated when the Dow puts in its final Top at 25,000-30,000……..???

http://tinyurl.com/kzff97m

US$ vs Gold

Just a quick surf around the net this am one can see lots of opinions regarding the strong US$ effecting gold

This chart highlights how a sane trader basing his gold investments off the US$ action has seeked out medication!

8 times since Golds 2011 high the US$ action has not provided guidance….of course the Manipulator Camp will cry the attacks on gold while it falls as the US$ falls is proof BUT I’d say they are focused on the wrong currency trade…its not all about the US$ as it was 2000-2008 its all about the Fortune Cookie action

US$ Weekly

http://tinyurl.com/qz5ylt6

Yes more $YEN…… blah, blah, blah

I hope nobody feels the reason I keep highlighting $YEN is because of my background, its not!

Who cares what has been the best leading indicator to golds trend since Oct 2012 as long as it works!!…doesn’t matter to me if it was Apple or the Baltic Dry index…it just happens to be Mr $YEN

With that said (I hate that line) $YEN one day will not be to go to indicator.

If Armstrong continues to be correct Bearish Gold 2011 and Bullish US equities then in his cryptic manner he has suggested gold’s next rise will come off higher interest rates and debt issues in the US being in focus again…once Europe and Japan implode.

Have a L@@K at the reaction of Gold from higher US PRIME rates, remember rates in Oct 1978 when 10% was tagged on its way to 20% April 1980…Gold went from $165 to $850….then rates rolled over and gold…???

Chart highlights when the Debt Ceiling Panic was in play summer 2011 and the first ever S&P downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA+

Gold’s 2011 run….

http://tinyurl.com/lgn3hus

For those who have not seen the $YEN chart

http://tinyurl.com/qhtezw2

Those that cry Gold Manipulation and Gold gets attacked, I’d say those currency traders that whack (short) $YEN also whack Gold/short….its been a money making trade.

http://tinyurl.com/ovcvvy8

Don’t get hung up on PO…..Price Objectives

Especially in todays markets…..there are players that were never, ever in the market place that are today and they can move markets….. the Central Bankers.

PO’s are great to see when your long at $10 and the arrow suggest $100 or short and the arrow suggest zero.

Reality is they rarely unfold in that manner, maybe that’s why EWavers always have arrows going up, down, across and one going chop, chop, chop…..all bases covered, WTF

Trade off the indicator trends in play not where you want them to be or think they should be….have we not ALL learned these past 6 years that so many things can happen on the way to da moon or hell.

Maybe while I’m gone Plunger will start posting some of his great work suggesting Phase? (can’t remember) into a much lower HUI bottom zone, not being a PO chartist I won’t be here to disagree with him, lol….its great to know what could unfold as Armstrong suggest as he highlights Global Capital Flows but stay focus on the trade in front of you…..you may L@@K up one day from your HUI indicators and realize it 100

EVERYTHING in the Markets these Central Bankers have created MUST BE TRADED….Buy and Hold is dead forever!!

The day’s of Warren Buffett buy shares of Coke when you walked out of High school got a job at Coke worked there till you retired and collected a pension till you died are gone forever!!!

Stay open minded or become road kill as Mr Market

Will run you over!!

I had an investment group here in the town I live from 2002-2012 which I ran, the group was made up of oil and gas professionals to lawyers, dentist (these guys make a lot of money!!) business owners etc. We had a great run basing our investments off the US$ action.

A funny thing happened on the way to $2000 Gold…opinions became the #1 topic and #1 driver of many within the group. Make a long story short of the 11 I only have contact with 2 now…GoldBug fever effects the mind.

I ran into one of these investors at the golf course Fri afternoon and his comment…. coming from a guy wealthy enough to drive a 2012 Bentley was, do you think Sprott’s call for $75 Silver could happen anytime soon?

The guy could have asked anything, I was floored!….my answer was I have no clue and I’d suggest its obvious these past few years Sprott doesn’t either….have a good game.

Stay focused on your charts NOT the opinions that seem to be everywhere when Golds $1200+ going to Zero and at $1400 going to da moon. Who moves, who creates the indicators on the charts, opinions or traders, I can’t move any chart as I could buy 20,000 shares of Goldcorp and it wouldn’t even blink (obviously a jr would but liquidity is a major concern) the Boyz with the big bucks behind their trades create the indicators we watch, not anyone I know.

I’ve said many times the chart has NO opinion which is true and it isn’t.
PRICE is everthing and the indicators we follow in a way are the opinions of traders as to the value of XYZ….its an opinion based of the flow of money, not a hollow opinion.

You’ll spend a lot more time away from your radar screens trading off the chart only and not opinions.

As I said sitting on a trading desk in 20+ years I can count on 1 hand how many times an opinion towards the CDN$ was discussed during a meeting or in the bar…..Never as a trade was in play it was always about the flow, trend, in play.

And that’s my opinion, lol

Doc Copper true INflation/DEflation indicator?

First my “opinion”….its well known the shadow banking system in China has many outstanding loans holding copper as collateral….its their version of US ninja loans held by so many 2nd tier banks across the US years ago, and we all know the reaction off that implosion….. Ka Boom!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomessaye/2014/03/11/chinas-canary-in-the-copper-mine/

When ones looks at the upper trend line and the continued lower highs you think of Gold….its the $3.00 level imo that is being protected by the BOC…only 2 weekly “closes” below $3.00….its Gold’s $1200 zone.

Remember when it was obvious in North America when Inflation was in play, Deflation and in between Stagflation….now there are so many cross winds watching the Windsock will give you whiplash….

2000-2008 was a pure currency trade as Gold rose from $255-$1033 the US$ fell from 121-71 and everything else from Doc Copper (.60-$4.25) to Rice to Oil ($17-$147) rose as the US$ fell, basic 101 FX trading.

Then the US financial crisis unfolded and the Central Bank intervention from liquidity injections to interest rate action removed the US$ trade vs the above mentioned and its been an interference to this day that has created the difficulty in navigating trades off the US$ action.

FUNDAMENTALS regarding the markets, imo you can remove that from the Investors dictionary, gone forever!…thanks to Central Bank intervention on a global scale, seasonalities ?? toss those charts as well?? maybe after 1 more failed seasonal trade, lol

So Doc Copper still the INflation, DEflation go to indicator….like so many indicators we’ve all used for years like CPI which now is void of anything that suggests inflation I’ll argue government protection of the $3 level suggests its lost its leadership as an indicator.

Early 2000 the US feds told the markets the weekly money supply data would no longer be released as according to them it didn’t produce any valid data, $%#@@!!!! those inside the FX markets who traded the US$ were all yelling WTF how could the money supply not reflect the value of the US$…..ahhhh it wasn’t long before we understood that INFLATION as was about to be unleashed from a much, much lower US$…..

Doc Copper Weekly chart

http://tinyurl.com/kxb7vt8

My Last Weekend of posting

My wife and I are going to be checking off our Bucket list starting next week so I won’t be at my radar station. Thankfully I have an old friend Mr Yen an ex $YEN trader who will be watching over my positions.

Going to post a lot of charts and “opinions” towards trading between now and Mon eve….hope those here find them helpful and if not, I’m gone Tuesday, lol