Goldtent TA Paradise
If you are a fan of symmetry , this is quite the potential fractal
Dollar down a little for 6 months = GoldBounce
then Dollar Runs away up to 120 = GoldTrounce ?
This Chart is Based on and Inspired by Rambus Long Term View of the Dollar originally posted March 10 2013 in his “Epiphany” Post
“This next chart for the US dollar is a very long term monthly chart that goes all the way back to 1980. Sometimes in charting one can have an Epiphany or an eureka moment where all of a sudden there is clarity beyond what you were initially looking for. I had such a moment with this next chart that has a lot of information on it. First you will see two bases labeled Big Base #1 and Big Base #2. These two bases are uncanny in their similarities. Some might call them fractals. The two bases are almost exactly the same height as well as time. The only real difference between the two bases is at point #3 which was a tad higher on Base #2 whereas in Base #1 it was a little longer. Other than that they are amazingly similar. Note the breakout and backtest from Base #1. If you look real close you can even see a small gap that was made right at the breakout point. The support and resistance rail held on two backtests which told us the S&R rail was hot. Note the blue bullish rising wedge that worked out as a beautiful halfway pattern. The height of Base #1 also measured out real close to the high where you can see the H&S top. As I said there is a lot of information on this chart so I’ll post it right here and carry on with the same chart again a little further down.
Carrying on with the same chart there is another important observation I would like to share with you. Note the H&S top that formed back in 2000. If you look at a gold chart you will see a big inverse H&S bottom that launched its bull market. A dollar top and a gold bottom. Now I want to draw your attention to the bottom right hand side of chart that shows point #4. That low at point #4 marked the absolute high for gold back in the fall of 2011. So what is this chart telling us? Strictly from a Chartology perspective I think it’s talking loud and clear to us. If that S&R rail on big base #2 gives way we are looking at a multi year rally for the US dollar and most likely a decline in the precious metals complex.”
PPS : Rambus has had another Epiphany and will be posting it soon. Hint : it pertains to the Gold Chart
PPPS Even if this fractal plays there is something very different this time on this chart regarding the US Dollar and Gold
IF This chart played out ( big IF ) Gold at 800 with the Dollar at 120 is 220% higher than it was
last time the Dollar was 120 when gold was $250, SO there’s your inflation I guess .
17 years later US Dollar is 120 again and Gold goes from $250 to $800 ( again of course this is an exercise )
17 years 220% gain = 12.5% gain per year . Yes its a potential snapshot in time but looking at it this way
Gold is doing OK vs the Dollar.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. 😉
I’m here …….
Not an active contributor, wanted to thanks all the “Paradise Posters”, and wish everyone the best of the holidays
‘ Evening Friends
Apologies for the rude post last evening.
Too much egg nog decreases ones judgement it seems
Thanks to all great posters and lurkers.
Wishing everybody a healthy and happy 2017
Just listened to EWI’s bit on sentiment, being the lowest ever recorded. So it should rally from here, and this chart does confirm we should get a bounce:
So now the question is, how high will it go? Are we in the early stages of a new Bull market? (Where is the inflation?)
Or is this going to be another Bear rally like we just had?
Or maybe, it just keeps going down. (Not likely, by every measure I can come up with its extremely oversold, so we should at least get a bounce, perhaps enough to fool the gold bugs once again)
So where do we go from here? I’m a long term bear, I just do not see how gold can go up in a deflationary environment, short of government doing another gold steal like they did in the 30’s. (As a used and rare bookseller I’ve been living with deflation for a very long time)
Another miserable week of downward churning. Low year end volume makes this meaningless in the grand scheme. This thing is going to rip in 2017. We are very early in the game. I’ve redrawn some trend lines to make the bull look healthier and my self look smarter.
Here is the line up:
Me thinks this will be the big winner in 2017. Low share count, great management, great business plan. Brutal IPO but not worried.
The red haired step child. Beaten silly. Great for day trading.
The industry leader. Has had it’s 50% retrace. Where it goes the others follow.
Still behaving nicely:
What ever your beliefs, what ever your traditions, have a great celebration!
I have posted the symmetrical triangle $SPX vs TLT chart below a couple of times before. This could be the largest and most impórtant around the apex move that is going on right now. And looking at the short term chart to the right, we have large negative divergences and also very little volume resistance, i.e. if it decides to drop there is nothing in the way until around the apex.
Both $SILVER and $GOLD are interestingly at strong support at the same time the chart above starts to wobble, below.
I am slightly starting to lean towards my bearish scenario posted here with $SILVER to 14 etc:
BUT, I am not so sure about that really. Almost everybody is leaning towards that now and therefore… My max PO for $USD is as posted 107,5 but I doubt we get there. And if we get to around 120 I think the move there will be quite fast, otherwise they will take control of the move on the way up. We could very well just have a FBO upwards on the chart below and that could be it.
And here are the individual setups for $SPX and TLT. For $SPX – I of course see the inverse h&s we all have been starring at, but, I also see a clear and possible around the apex move in the making, drop coming? For TLT – massive 8 year rising wedge that looks ready to bounce of the support line and go for yet another turn upwards.
If my mentioned bearish scenario fullfills all the way I guess we will be going for a full BT of the larger bear market formations below:
All in all, very difficult spot, but if I had a massive gun to my head I would say that I would think that $GOLD holds the support of its bull market support/trend line above. It seems reasonable for $GOLD to have its time in the sun from now on. And there is too much going on for $GOLD to drop to under 1000 I believe. And everybody is waiting for it to drop from here like it is already a fact and we all know what usually happens then. And, there are so many quality miners at massive support right now. They have seen a $USD reversal coming I would think.
This was THE most Boring market week Ever !
have had a good run. Most may be due for a bit of a pullback. Negative RSI divergences on URA, CCJ for example. (No time to post – leaving on road trip – Happy Christmas all)
This chart is telling us we get a total retrace of last years move in Silver and turn up the first week of January.
EDIT: To the responses in the comment section…..all that is needed to generate this wave is for price to contact the bottom trend in the 15.50 range, can it break down? yes, absolutely. Don’t like the set up….don’t buy it then.
I show the USD “wedging” to a decision point on day 10 so the next day or so will be important on the USD’s direction in the near term and perhaps the intermediate term as well.
$SPX has topped here, based on the 80 day Hurst cycle. The 80 day trough, and several shorter cycle troughs, are located around 20th January. Recall the low in PM stocks was 19th January last. Co-incidence?
Here is an interesting ratio chart, which defines what side of the trade one should now be positioned. Its non-concensus. neither is the long JPY currency position in the portfolio. Refer link above.
As I have posted for about 1,5-2 months now, natural gas is on the move. I posted about the BO from the inverse h&s a month ago and said that we would hold that BO and BT. The BT has been going on now for three weeks and it has built out a beautiful bull flag on the weekly and a falling wedge on the daily; chart to the left below. It should BO from this bull flag in the next few days. The chart to the right below shows that it has also BO from a very large formation and this, together with some fundamentals, makes it pretty safe to assume that it is in a new bull market.
And if we look at $NATGAS vs $GOLD and $CRB we can see that $NATGAS is set to outpace them both, below.
And as you can see from the charts above, a drop from here is more than highly unlikely. Everything can always change and go two ways but the charts above are at this point crystal clear.
We now see e.g. uranium and natural gas taking the lead in the what I believe is a new 15 year commodity bull cycle. And, as I have posted, I think we have a bottom here for PM, right now or in a few weeks. My max for $USD/DXY is 107,5 as posted, but it does not seem like we will get there even.
Today’s News, December 22, 2016
11:56 am ET
*Watch Uranium Stocks As Trump tweets the U.S. Must Expand Its Nuclear Capability
Uranium stocks jumped on the tweet..CCJ, DNN, URA, UUUU