I assume you mean by “new bull market”, another leg up in the present bull market. Wave 3’s are impulse waves and therefore consist of a 5-wave pattern. There is no POR other than determining if the wave patterns fall within EWP parameters for each given wave.
EWP is all about recognizing “probabilities”, as each wave or pattern must fall within certain parameters to meet the criteria for properly labeling the wave/pattern. This consistency is what makes EWP such a useful tool.
Please refer to Avi’s chart and note in his report, paraphrasing “I’m not saying wave 3 is about to begin, but the setup for wave 3 is there.”
By that he meant that GDX completed a 5-wave impulse move (wave i), followed by an acceptable A-B-C type correction pattern (“Running Flat Correction”) to complete wave ii, and then what appears to be a new wave 1 of iii breakout to new highs, and an acceptable pullback level for wave 2 of iii. Wave 3 of iii should breakout to new highs and also consist of 5-waves on expanding volume, which is what appears to be happening now.
To hopefully answer your second question, below is my EWP interpretation of the $HUI, which I believe corrected the 2008 top within an Expanded Flat Correction pattern. Corrective wave C consisted of 5-waves down, and ended in classic fashion – within a 5-point “Bullish Falling Wedge” breakout.
EWP seems intimidating but it’s really not. For those interested, I highly recommend reading “Elliott Wave Principle” by Frost & Prechter. Just take it one page at a time and soon you will get it and have it for keeps.