INDICATORS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH UPSIDE LEFT TO THIS RUN?
From Trader Dan’s Beehive Forum Posted by BobbyLivesMore
Norcini is a technical analyst, and it’s easy to understand why technical analysts do not want to address surreptitious trading and market intervention by central banks — why technical analysts loathe the very subject of gold market manipulation. For such trading and intervention by central banks and their agents would mean that there really is no market to analyze, that technical analysis in such circumstances is a delusion.
Of course no one can be expected to admit cheerfully that his life’s work has become obsolete. As a newspaper editor your secretary/treasurer feels this keenly, having spent most of his life in an occupation dependent on literacy and civic engagement, both of which are nearing obsolescence in the public mind in the United States.
But to call people “nitwits,” as Norcini does, for complaining about something as comprehensively documented as the destruction of free markets seems awfully presumptuous. If GATA ever persuades enough people of this market rigging and thereby helps to end it, restoring free markets, maybe someday technical analysis will become useful again.
thanks for providing that for us Bobby…
I actually like Chris Powell; he is a decent guy.
The problem I have with the GATA gang is not personal but their continued persistence in clinging to their theory of gold manipulation when the actual market analysis discredits it.
I used to write for these guys a while back and actually tried to be a forceful proponent of the gold price manipulation theory.
What was different back then and why I continue to marvel at their blockheaded claims that these “flash crashes” as they term sharp moves lower in gold, are the result of bullion bank/gold cartel orchestrated takedowns, is one huge factor. THE SOARING DOLLAR. Back when I was an advocate for GATA the US Dollar was sinking into the toilet and threatening the 72 level on the USDX chart. I believed then and still believe now,, that we did indeed have an orchestrated attempt by the Fed using the bullion banks as proxies to try to stem the rise in the price of gold because gold competes directly with the US Dollar. A soaring gold price alongside of a collapsing dollar signaled a loss of confidence in the Dollar, something that the Fed did not want.
However, with the Dollar rallying like it has been, there was no need to attack the gold price. Speculators simply were not interested in holding gold due to the costs associated with owning it in size. IF anything, the strong Dollar signaled the desire of global investors to own it ( the Dollar).
Then you throw in the fact that the commodity world was sinking, GLD outflows were surging higher as total reported holdings collapsed and the TIPs spread was falling… all of these signaled DEFLATION was the issue NOT A COLLAPSING DOLLAR as GATA was predicting. Eventually the truth has caught up with the gold conspiracy crowd in regards to the Dollar. Sadly they have not changed their tune.
I made no secret of the fact that something else was going to be needed to spark a sustained rally in the gold price because of the points mentioned above ((deflation, falling commodity prices, strong Dollar, soaring stock markets, weak TIPS spread, etc.)
That is occurring now as a backdrop as gold now resumes trading as a currency. That is evidence by its rising in terms of other currency majors.
We are also seeing renewed interest in the metal by speculators as evidenced by the inflows in GLD as well.
So what do we now have? A rising gold price.That is exactly what one would expect to see and it is exactly what we are now getting. The problem with GATA is that THEY EXPECT GOLD TO GO HIGHER ALL THE TIME REGARDLESS of fundamental factors and investor sentiment. That is why I used the term, “nitwits”.
For GATA , gold is always in a bull market, or at least it should be. That simplistic view simply caries no credibility with many of us who actually try to understand market/investor sentiment and trade/invest accordingly.
Maybe one day they will get it over there. Like I said, I like both Chris and Bill personally. It is too bad that they cannot be objective but then again, their organization needs to keep the gold conspiracy alive all the time or their reason for its existence would be obsolete .
At 10:44 EST we made a lower price low when my CumTick indicator gave a higher low – this was a bullish signal for an intra-day reversal up.
We are now 5-waves up in the ES from that low on the1-min chart.
On Jan 12 you mentioned “Chuck” and “Denniswong.” Can’t seem to figure out who they are. Any links? Thanks!
I had the nice exit on NUGT but was asleep on the job yesterday morning for the 3 day pull back.
GDX hit a couple of RABC targets for a nice entry below 17.
The DX Dollar going back 20 years just tested 50% retrace. A declining dollar could cause PMs to really move up.
DX momentum is out of gas too.
Washer, looking at your gold chart, we have a feeling that gold have bottomed. But from my gold chart, gold’s gonna move down much further, drop to 980, or possibly, 880.
I draw the line (like your chart) connecting the 2005 and 2008 bottoms and it showed that gold penetrated this line in 2014 (gold did the same in 2008), signalling that gold gonna go down further.
Everyone has their own perspective, so this is just the way I view gold, it can be right, it can be wrong.
Comment: Ahhh, his cleanest chart yet and the most telling!…EagleEye
Welcome to the forum
Of course as the Canadian Dollar drops against The US Dollar ..even if Gold was flat in US Dollars the price of
Gold in Canadian dollars will rise…but Gold is rising in US Dollars too so this move has been astronomical really
$200 increase in 2 weeks..wow
as the daily chart shows (This is the same in all other currencies except the Swiss Frank )
To project where Gold in Loonies is going here is a weekly chart
Looks like this move has maybe another $30 left before a correction.
But you never know when there is a parabolic move .
There is a resistance zone just above here and the top of a pattern too
This chart is bullish however since the broke thru that downsloping line with avengence .
This might be a stupid question (I’m good at that), but when I look at gold in Canadian dollars I get a very different read than what I see in the $US charts. (And many thanks to all for the great charts!)
Obviously, what happens to gold in $US will impact the $Cad chart. But clearly the changing exchange rate is also having a major impact on the $Cad gold chart.
So, has anyone applied their charting techniques to gold in the $Cad? If so, I’d value your insights as I try to get a handle on this aspect. Thanks!
The VIX does one or two things–up or down. Using the Heikin-Ashi charts, the “volatility” is smoothed out SUBSTANTIALLY versus candlestick charts…Using just the TRIX and the candle color changes look how “easy” it is to trade UVXY/SVXY. Add the volatility index to your diversified trading portfolio.
This post by Goldtadise’s very own Matrix at Trader Dan’s Beehive Forum and Subsequent Reply from Dan is a straight shot
I know both sides of this story as 5 years ago I was one of these zealots .
Note : The beehive is only available with a Trader Dan’s World Subscription
this post was stolen :
Time to vent!
January 24, 2015,2:11 pm
Just read the comments section off Dan’s “Gold due for a setback” at Safehaven and Goldseek
I apologize for mentioning yet again my reference of 22+ years within the currency business but it does give me the right of experience to post a Shout over some of the comments regarding Dan’s article.
Reminds me of those that yell at the professional athlete “you bum” as you order another hot dog sitting in the bleachers!
I don’t think, in fact I know of no other investment that brings out the deaf, dumb and blind that gold followers highlight to perfection.
Just The Facts, just the support resistance zones of gold, just the technical reaction when X fails Y suggesting Z is the results.
It absolutely blows me away how so many follow those that have been wrong for sooooo many years regarding golds action…..we had a saying in the office, you’ve been wrong for 3 months come back to me when you’ve been correct for 3 months, well make that going on 4 years now since gold has rolled over off its highs.
I’m not going to name names as the list is too long! of self proclaimed gold gurus who have been incorrect for years suggesting every 10%+ pop in gold is THE bottom….14 bottoms later @#$!!
TRADE off whats in front of you NOT the claims of $50grand gold OR $500 so when Mr Market takes a breather and retraces only complete morons label those that highlight the correct action as a Traitor!
Even a 1 eyed retarded monkey can call a bull market, its those that have correctly called the action while gold has been clearly in a Bear market that one needs to follow….Norcini is clearly in that rare camp, never suggesting to da moon or to dust…..just highlighting one chart zone at a time.
I can tell you while sitting on the currency desk, never, ever, ever did I suggest anyone look on the web for so and so’s opinion as to whether my position was correct…..its ALL ON THE CHART…I’m not a Bull or a Bear…I’M A TRADER
Follow The Best, Forget The Rest
January 24, 2015,2:28 pm at 2:28 pm Edit
Thanks for the outstanding post; it is full of wisdom gained from experience.
The reason that the gold bugs are held in such contempt and scorn by those who actually make their livings in the market is for the very reasons that you site. They know ONE DIRECTION for gold – UP. Every single last one of them would starve to death if their livelihood depended upon actually reading what the market has to say because they are too blinded by their own opinions.
Like I have said repeatedly over the years – opinions are like armpits – everyone has them and they all stink!
The mark of a good trader or investor, is that of being able to correctly read what a market is saying and placing their trade accordingly. Sometimes that means being long; sometimes that means being short; sometimes it means having NO position at all.
This is the reason I penned that commentary a while back which I entitled. “THE GOLD CULT”.
Make no mistake about it – for most, if not all of the gold bugs, gold is a RELIGION. It cannot be questioned; it cannot be denigrated; it cannot be spoken against for that is heresy.
These people actually scare me because in many cases, they are like rabid dogs – lashing out at anyone who dares to call their yellow metal god into question. I find their attitude towards those who disagree with their perpetual calls for “moon shots” in gold very much akin to those who dare to criticize the prophet of Islam. It provokes a fanatical response filled with vitriol, wrath, vile insults, denigration, etc.
That is all the proof one needs to understand that for the majority of gold bugs, gold is a cult. That will never change.
For those of us who actually take a rational, seasoned, objective approach to the markets, gold is merely another asset class that fills into and out of favor depending on where we are in the business cycle.
I have watched the gold cult members follow their blind gurus into the toilet and lose the vast majority of their life’s savings, and yet remain as blindly devoted to their deceiving hucksters, shills and charlatans as ever. It really is quite astonishing to see how dense and naïve some people can be.
AGAIN, ONE OF MY TREND CONFIRMATIONS…
ALSO, THE JDST BULL/BEAR INDICATOR ON THE 15 MIN IS CLEARLY IN BULLISH MODE!
Look at the JDST 15 too. We have the gap down, the island, then if this “island reversal” holds true. Should see a gap up on JDST on Monday. That would be a beautiful text book example of a “bullish island reversal”…:-)
Do you see an island top developing in the PM Stock Indices ?
THEN WE WANT TO BREACH 70 AND SUSTAIN THAT LEVEL IN A BULLISH RUN IN JDST…
FIRST RESISTANCE IS 9.13