What is Goldtent TA Paradise?
Pure Plunger (HOT!)
In my mind the proof of whether the S&P has re-established the uptrend will be when the 20MA on the monthly is regained as support. We wont know until Nov 1 and current prices are almost right on the 20MA. Risk/reward favors selling this area with a stop on a monthly close above the 20MA. This is my chart from late Aug. Funny how we all agreed when prices were plunging in Aug that any backtest would be a screaming sell. Now that we are there everyone is oozing bullishness. Alas, classic market sentiment 😉
his array that begins week of 10/5 shows gold topping week of 10/26
The channel aspect of the ratio charts we looked at this weekend got me curious. I took a look at combining a trendline on the gold:silver ratio with momentum oscillator swings to see if a pattern developed against the GDX. Just using the TL touches was powerful enough but combine it with full STO swings and you get a good tool to for risk/reward entries. I think this chart only fails after a true trend reversal (i.e. bottom) has occurred. Unless you think the low is already in on gold, this seems like poor odds to be long both gold and the GDX. We will see.
Meanwhile, anyone else notice the Silver COT picture????? Wowzers….
One last chart to consider is MA’s current gold array from his computer model. According to MA, the top line Composite is the sum of the cyclical models below it both Transverse and Longitudinal based. This is the primary line to watch for this reflects the most important turning points which can be a high or low. You obviously know the difference as you are moving into that target date. In our case it would seem we are moving into a high beginning tomorrow. A gap up at the open Monday followed by a decline from there would make sense to me.
Wow Guys….This weekends posts are some of the best ever here at this site
I know many of you are here because the Rambus Forum was destroyed by hackers
and is still in the process of being rebuilt .
Thank you all for coming here and sharing your excellent ideas
Regular lurkers here must be in TA heaven with all this free content to consider
Here is one post and chart amongst the many brilliant ones this weekend I would like to highlight
from our Swedish Member.. Graddhyllesvin
The implications of this chart are stunning
Audept and I are proud to be hosts and moderator of a place such as this .
NOW : Announcement
The Rambus Forum is finally back on line , we will be announcing its return at Rambus Chartology Main Site this evening
the new address is
On Behalf of Eagle Seagle and Mark and all the other regulars at Goldtent TA Paradise I would like to
offer you guys an invitation to keep posting and reading here at this site now that you are members here as well
This place is for all non members of pay sites who are interested in Learning and Sharing Technical Analysis of all kinds .
I am sure you will all agree that Eagle and Mark are amongst the Best TA Analysist on the www
They will continue to share their work and ideas here for the masses ….so please drop in and join the discussions
here as well as at the Chartology Forum . You can just, from the posting page, copy and paste any posts you would
like to share here .
Again thank you all for sharing and teaching and learning here at Tadise .
Please copy your posts from here this weekend and paste them at the new Chartology Forum as well .
This is a Community of Precious Metals Enthusiasts who have come to be fascinated by Technical Analysis
and to learn how to apply it to all markets for fun and especially profits .
Thanks again all
Fullgoldcrown (for Audept)
9 October: Exited all longs as shown and banked the profits
12 October: Sitting in 100% cash, waiting for new signals
Comment: A number of red flags were becoming obvious last Friday. For example, volume and other indicators diverging against price in most instruments. That in addition to overbought, in most instruments, forced the decision to exit all longs and go to cash.
“Why is the rabbit unafraid…because he is smarter than the panther”….quote from The Edge.
Really strong divergence right now on gold OBV. Really quite odd and may be foretelling of a strong opposite move in gold soon. OBV levels are actually lower now than when gold was at $1100 last month. These types of divergences just don’t happen much on the OBV signal. Last time we had anything like this, gold made an impulsive swing in the opposite direction.
My old weekly chart still appears relevant too.
Monthly shows possible distribution too with the A/D line comparing levels.
“The key to successful trading has absolutely nothing to do with making market calls. However, has to do with identifying change in trend (on whatever time frame you choose) and positioning yourself so that the wind is always behind your back. Then, you stay with that position until the tailwind comes to an end”
It seems there are two high-probability outcomes for the PM sector. Either the top of the move is at or near Friday’s numbers for gold and the mining indexes, or a top is a few % higher, around the 18 level for GDX, as Mark has noted.
There is a potentially interesting fractal that may (or may not be forming) in the mining indexes. If the fractal breaks, the odds would seem to favour further upside gains.
In the end stage of the big PM bear market that ended in 2000/2001, the XAU made an interesting fractal (red circle) prior to the terminal washout phase:
Currently, this fractal MAY (or may not) be repeating:
At this time, the (potential) fractal remains in play.
I have no F*@kin clue really but I think this would be a Bullish Bat pattern (Some call Gartleys either Butterfly or Bat patterns).
I was trying to draw the Bat with the right math but I really don’t know what the hell I’m doing here. Just a student trying to learn a new TA skill. Better go back to surfing.
Thanks Bikoo for the ratio chart you shared as a comment to my silver post. You know, I also subscribed to the premise that silver led but curiously I had never bothered to chart the ratio. I have no clue why. I decided to test the premise and plot GDX behind price. Sure enough the correlation is solid. I shaded in red the periods immediately after the ratio started falling. I also noticed some interesting channel behavior that forms some structure to the ratio. I created my own version of the chart below. Yes, if the ratio behavior holds true, the GDX should begin falling soon.
If other markets are in the same phase as Sweden then I might just have found a big piece of the puzzle to where we are going from here. Also found a critical support line on SPX which I have not seen anywhere before so far. Can´t wait to get your views on this. Bear with me a little here.
For two months or so I have been thinking that we are looking at a quite large h&s on many indexes, including the Swedish OMX30. Yesterday I saw that this h&s is just part of a much, much larger formation that, it seems, have overruled the h&s.
But yesterday I did the usual – trying to find other clues. I took the long perspective once more and then I saw it. With the finished h&s in place I now saw what is really happening. This very long term formation shows the h&s as being just a BT-pattern to the much larger formation. This is why the h&s, much to my frustration, did not break down. The very large other pattern overruled the energy of the h&s I guess.
Looking at it a bit zoomed in the pattens becomes very clear I think. And now, the bull flag that is right on the very long term, now, support line shows. Clearly makes it more bullish according to Rambus (a knowledge he has been very clear about). And it looks like the bull flag is just about to breakout, it seems to be finished building. What looked like the start of a break down from the h&s was really the forming of a bull flag on top of that very long term, now, support line.
My thinking is that the Swedish main index can not be the only large index with this formation, or something that gives the same message. For example, and it is not the same thing, but, SPX now has a bullish engulfing on the monthly and it has clearly gotten support at the EMA30 on the monthly. And I also found a support line for SPX on the monthly chart below that I think works very well and that supports the thought that SM will go up from here.
I also see other very interesting things on that chart as shown below. The inverse h&s seems not unlikely even though it is absolutely massive. And there are companies that have the same inverse h&s of which I have posted a few here, e.g. EBAY.
Also, there are so many other signs, formations and resistance lines among the pm and energy complex that tells me that they should be going down, e.g. possible DT on WTI and turning signs on DTWI, big resistance for gold/silver/copper/gas, EEM doing BT to large h&s (see my previous posting about EEM, YANG et al) etc etc. Also, TLT is on the verge of breaking out of a large inverse h&s (see my previous postings). And, the current bounce in SM is really too strong I think to be just another bounce in a downtrend that is about to continue (maybe Fed et al has started QE4 as I have mentioned in a couple of postings). Looks like deflation will continue among commodities and inflation will continue in the SM. I have also said in my postings about the symmetrical triangle on the USD that it is breaking down but that it seems to have no energy downwards really and that it might be a FBO or it just might go sideways from here, making room for other stuff to make their moves.
But, looking at the chart below, which is the one that I have all the way seen as Rambuses major road map, it might take one more month or so. Maybe we need to see a BT to the falling triangle drawn in first, before we are really off to the blow off. And that would be fantastic as it would give us just the right amount of time to prepare ourselves.
There are also a couple of numbers that add up here quite perfectly for the last two charts. The PO for the enormous inverse h&s on SPX is ca 3000. The HUI:SPX ratio chart gives that its PO for a very long term DB is ca 0,025. This info together gives us a value for HUI of ca 75, and that is exactly bang on the support level/zone for HUI back in 2001-02. And also on the HUI chart itself we see the falling triangle that probably need a BT before we can get going. If that is the case, there is room on the SPX chart to move down a bit without violating the long term support line I found.
So, with this, I am saying that I do think that this is the bottom this time for SM and that SM will continue go up from here. And the fact that we seem to be bouncing of very long term support lines should give SM a serious boost, which we are seeing also right now I think.
While SM goes into parabola as I think will be the case, it seems like comm or at least PM+Energy will experience one last large downdraft in the form of a final deflationary wave. Maybe it takes 6-14 months for the SM parabola to do its thing and for the comm to level out and be ready for its bull market.
I´ll stick my neck out here and say – I think the parabola in SM is about to start. And we need to watch for the possible BTs mentioned.
Until I see something that says otherwise, above is my road map going forward. It should not take so long to see if this is correct.
We are in a unique position here historically and in many other ways too I think.
Looking at BT-targets, we seem to have the underside of the falling triangle for the HUI:SPX-ratio coming in at ca 0,072. Likely numbers in order to reach that seems to be HUI ca 145-150 (MA200 coming up + intermediate resistance line + BT its own falling triangle ca 147-150 + BT 2008 low ca 150) and SPX ca 2015-2080 (passed MA50 without noticing it).
Specific combos that make up ca 0,072:
Note that HUI has not yet BT its 2008 low. I think it would be almost unthinkable for HUI not to do that before it continues down if that is what it wants. This I think in turn raises the odds for HUI:SPX-ratio doing its BT, which then of course also raises the odds for the scenario above as a whole. That is at least my thinking. Not to say it absolutely will happen but the odds are quite good as I see it.
If we break below the support line on SPX that I found, I am guessing there will be a sizeable downdraft and then maybe the thesis above might come into question.
We now have nearly perfect configuration. All that needs to happen is for prices to fall to confirm. Details…..details 😉
Looks to be on the money (green line).
Relating to Plungers post here. I saw Maloney´s posting yesterday.
I have also mentioned QE4 in a few postings the last weeks. And yes, I think we might be there. And it would make all the sense in the world not to tell us at some point if they have restarted it or which QE-nmbr they are on.