bought deals

The gold and silver miners need to raise new equity as part of their growth and development. I have no issues with that. However, what needs to change is how its done in North American listed stocks, compared to Australian listed stocks.

In Australia, the Boards go to shareholders with the offer first generally, and if there is any shortfall it goes to outside parties. Sometimes its underwritten, often not. So existing shareholders get the opportunity to top up their holdings at a discount to market, plus free warrants….before the outsiders.

In Canada and USA, the company Boards instead go first to outsiders generally, seeking a “bought deal”. Their shareholders are sitting there thinking WTF. “We supported your share price through thick and thin, and now you offer discounted equity (plus free warrants) to outsiders”. Where were they when the going got tough?

This is a real issue, and I am not sure what the solution is, apart from shareholders in North America getting onto their company CEOs and voicing their wrath. If the industry wants to retain shareholder loyalty going forward, then stop the outside bought deals. Go to shareholders, and be pleasantly surprised with the outcome.

And when the going gets tough, the outsiders are the first to exit, as their is no loyalty there, except to their back pocket and their annual bonuses and commissions, which they pick up on every bought deal.

Hamilton shreds Savage

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-stocks-too-far-too-fast

 

Buy Gold, get out of stocks

Quote from Druckenmiller the investment legend

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/buy-gold-%E2%80%98get-out-stock-market%E2%80%99-warns-druckenmiller

At least he agrees that gold is a currency.

SPX/UVXY Update…

Bulls remain in control…
If 2019 is not breached a “bullish descending wedge” could transpire…
spx
UVXY…
After Wednesdays SELL signal, all down hill…
2 hour 13/34 EMA cross was a “trap”; suspicious because upper trend line was NOT breached…
uvxy
Might as well throw SVXY into the mix…
SVXY
svxy

Jordan Roy Byrne: Misreading the COTs Again

http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/misreading-the-cots-again?post=93732&uid=26404

Market Horror Picture Show – A True Story

One of the Best things about moderating this Round Table is I get to know so many of you personally
even though we have never met
Sir Cedarwood …Thank you for watching the GLD and reporting at The Chartology Forum
You are Super GLD Man

…Sir Cedarwood …is one of the good guys
He is a Grandpa , still working . and also manages to watch every tick…literally
of the Price of Gold on netdania..He is addicted and he knows it.
I suspect there a lot of folks like this here at the tent.

Sir Cedarwood…tell us the story of your greatest adventure in the Markets ..

Folks…don’t miss this. Fully

…………………………………

In 1999, I joined an array of stock chat rooms, all formed to follow a single stock: Osicom, symbol FIBR. We formed what amounted to a cult. We tried to outdo each other in the number of shares we bought. In the spring of 1999, I was loaded up on margin to Citibank … to the tune of 600,000 in debt. Osicom had gone from 5 to 20. Then, the shorts, who were undoubtedly watching our chat board, pulled a raid. The price dropped to 5. My phone lit up with calls from my Citibank broker. Somehow, somehow, I talked him in to not selling me out. Just one more day. Just wait until Monday. He did. On Monday, the price climbed to 11, and I managed to sell enough to retire most of the margin debt. I was left with about 90,000.

Then, as a true True Believer, I loaded up on … Call Options. From June of 1999, when I was just about “dead broke” (kinda like Hillary), to March of 2000 … well … on one day in March I controlled 50,000 shares with various options … in one day, Osicom went from 110 to 130 … up 20 bucks … resulting in a single-day one-million-dollar gain.

Ultimately, Osicom hit 149 3/4.

The chat room froze … like a herd of deer … their eyes in the headlights.

We were all waiting for … another double … we just knew it would hit 300.

With one phone call and one word “sell” I would have been worth $4,000,000 AFTER TAXES.

But no. We just knew 300 was just around the corner.

You all know what happened in March-April 2000. The Nasdaq had climbed to over 5000. The big crash began.

I held it … all … the … way … down … to ZERO.

True story.

Won’t happen this time. I’ll pull the trigger on my Spock Rocks with the help of Sir Fully, Plunger, Spock, Raj, and all youse guys. Because after hearing this story, you will, I hope, remind me.

Onward and upward.

Cedarwood

Postscript

It gets even weirder. We called ourselves (appropriately) “Osiholics.” We all got together both in Washington, DC and in California (at the company’s plant). We sort of broke in to the company’s headquarters on a Saturday and met the CEO. We even printed up T-Shirts that said “To the Moon!”

Then the real sell signals started: The guy who started the chat room, a young guy from Pittsburgh, was … I’m serious … murdered at a fast-food place in Pittsburgh. Then, a group of Osiholics was traveling to one of our meetings. There was a wreck in the middle of a road. A woman’s head sat there … in the road. A H&S pattern? Can you say “Sell Signal”?

…………………….

Fully’s Comment : Sir Cedarwood..I just re read this and you must be joking then..right

The symbol for this stock was FIBR ?

Fibber !

🙂

COT Data and analysis

May be a blow off top to $1400 is in the making!!!!!!!

Commercial shorts up by +74373 to total shorts 527207. WOW!!!!

Spec net long at 299896. Highest since 2001. ( I think).

Gold cot

How COT really works:

http://tsi-blog.com/2016/04/the-true-meaning-of-golds-cot-data/

Matrix and Trader Dan from Trader Dan’s World

Dans Post :

BOND MARKET CONFUSION

Even the bonds seemed confused by today’s price action across so many major markets. At one point they were up over a full point on the weak payrolls report. Then, they sold off the session high and are now slightly negative.

The move lower corresponded with the Dollar’s recovery off of its worst price level of the session.

From a pure TA perspective, bonds ran EXACTLY to the top of the trading range and then reversed.

Chart_16-05-06_10-50-45

Makes me wonder if maybe we really have seen the long term top in bonds.

After all, if the commodity sector buying off of the weaker Dollar and the lousy payrolls number continues, then why shouldn’t the bonds look at the sluggish economy and hot money push higher in commodities as inflationary? I am being sarcastic here.

No one knows what the heck to do from any sort of fundamental perspective since those are all meaningless at the moment.

This is especially noteworthy since the yield curve has been flattening the last two days with the spread between the Ten Year Treasury and the Two Year Treasury narrowing by 4 basis points this week.

In other words, we have a yield curve telling us that growth is so sluggish that inflation is not on the radar screen all the while we have binge buying across many individual commodity markets.

Like I said earlier, try not to reason any of this out. Nothing works anymore. All of the former relationships we have had for so many years among different but interrelated markets have evaporated into nothingness.

Matrix reply :

Thank God Dan we made the money we did back in the day when 1+2=3 otherwise I’d be a Walmart greeter

The amount of suits walking around Bay St applying old school to todays market action is scary.

CHEER$!…..hey sorry for posting that pic of you inside the beehive, you really that grey or is that an old picture?

Reply

Trader Dan

Matrix;

hey, my hair was my natural blonde color until two weeks ago when the Yellen fed went dovish and the bank of japan did nothing. Then it all turned gray the next day and hasn’t been the same since!

on the earlier days – yes my friend. We saw the BEST DAYS for trading. The days of the open pit trading were unique and are lost forever. they will filled with colorful characters but more importantly, guys who understood the markets in which they traded. Nowadays , our markets are run by brain dead hedge fund computers which couldn’t tell you one end of a stalk of corn from the other or the difference between a butt cut and a picnic cut or whatever.

Our markets are functionally broken.

Interesting chart from Jesse

golddaily3

Dow Gold ratio rollover MoM – lower low since early ’15

This ratio does not turn on a dime when it breaks down unless growth is sustainable, which has not been the case over the past 5 years.   Another reason it’s 1976-77.

5 yr

(edit) Today’s ratio 13.55 (or so), not hit since early 2015 on the upside/crest of the arc. Aside from the number it’s the direction of (what I see as) the inevitable which confirms a solidifying new bull market.

dow-gold mom lower low

100 yr

100 yr dow gold

Precious Metals Correction : The “Gentleman’s” Entry ?

On May 4th we asked “The Precious Metals Correction”: Now What? Well today’s action may indicate some resolution to that question. The hopes for a Gentleman’s Entry into this nascent PM uptrend may well have been dashed. A Gentleman’s Entry is a second chance to enter the market at favorable levels for those who got caught sleeping and missed the initial move. It is a fabled event, which in reality seldom presents itself.

Since January 20th the PM stocks have been powering higher with the HUI index up over 137% before this current minor pullback. There is a large frustrated group of PM bulls who have found themselves either on the sidelines looking in or grossly underinvested. They remained skeptical that this rally is the real deal so delayed taking positions until further evidence confirmed the move, and now it has gotten away from them. The brutal 5 year bear market left its scars on both their wallets and their psychology. Not only have they been unable to embrace this rally, but most of their favorite PM gurus have advised them to stay safely on the sidelines and use the first “correction” to load up on the PM shares. I have stated that this is flawed advice based mainly on the principle that this is the beginning of a historic Phase I bull market in the precious metals in which the initial upthrust movement resembles a beach ball held underwater then released. In this rare set-up there is no significant retracement until price returns to “known values”. An example off this phenomena can be seen in the kick off of the great secular bull market of the 1980s-90s. In that phase I, the market blasted off and never looked back, leaving all doubters and skeptics stupefied on the sidelines. Take a look at what this great advance looked like and ask yourself where was the gentlemans entry? Where could those caught sleeping have gotten in at yesterdays lower prices? You are right, there wasn’t one.
sc-1948
So this is the dynamic dominating this advance and it can be validated by the predominant psychology that exists. We all know that we have a slew of gold bug wannabes that want into this bull advance in the worst kind of way. They have lusted for a bull market in the PM stocks for 5 years, they chased false bottoms all the way down in the bear market in pursuit of this dream. We now actually have a bull market, yet they find themselves on the outside looking in. Blame their skepticism or their guru advisors, but there they sit getting ulcers watching the train leave the station without them.

They want a correction and they want it in the worst way!

But here is the thing, a secondary reaction comes after everyone has gotten on board and then begin leaning over on the bullish side. It comes not when it is wanted or expected. It comes when the consensus believes that prices must now advance higher. A correction in the PM stocks seems wanted now more than I have ever witnessed, so I suspect this weeks weakness is simply normal breathing action of the market and NOT a prolonged decline. Price drops will be welcomed and immediately bought by early claim jumpers, thus arresting the decline. It seems the past few days may have even attracted fresh short sellers. If the HUI can now advance to new highs, these shorts may receive one of the bulls religious experiences which he especially enjoys delivering. Mr. Bull also has no desire accommodating those bullish sidelined sympathizers, in fact he relishes seeing them looking from the outside in with hollow eyes.

When the “big one” comes, the skeptics will have already been convinced by the price action that this bull is real and wont welcome the correction.

sc-1949

sc-1950

Ride the Bull . But you got to be Tough .

Plunger

GDXJGR 2 Hour

MACD is showing bearish divergence with price, albeit mildly:

GDXJGR 2H1

If, and it’s a big if, GDXJGR were to turn down from here it could form a head and shoulders pattern:

GDXJGR 2H2

What’s interesting to me is the H&S target of approximately 0.26 is very close to the first Fib retracement level on GDXJGR’s daily chart:

GDXJGR D

SpockM

Is anybody else experiencing difficulties accessing SpockM website today??

I don’t want to bother Fully, he may have his hands full at this moment.

But I did see that “SOMETHINGS UP” at SpockM on Twitter https://spockm.com/2016/05/06/somethings-up/

COTs reports after the Close

One thing for sure…they are going to be Scary…Again !

But so far all they have done is kept good traders on the sidelines.

One day they will matter….but may be a while yet

KGI.to (Kirkland Lake Gold) is a beast.

KGI May 6:16

Hey, Fully

I hope you recognize that these PM stocks are doing well today. 🙂

Experience of Buying on the Way Down

As a long term investor in the gold sector I thought I’d share my personal experience thus far of what it’s like to buy and hold on the way down. I’ll share my purchases on just one of my positions: Yamana Gold. No, I’m not a high roller like some of you guys. But I’m doing this mainly with cash I can afford to lose.
AUY
This is a stock I first bought in January of 2014 at $9.00 a share. At the time, I thought it was a decent price because it was down from about $20.00 a share in 2012. As you know, Yamana went on to trade below $1.40 a share in January 2016. Brutal to say the least. But from the first purchase at $9.00, I was buying the whole way down, and reinvesting the dividends, so that in the end I am averaged in at $3.23 per share and currently up 39.99% and $768.40 on the position. This whole time I haven’t sold a single share of any gold stocks. I am holding out for a big pay day a few years down the road.

Gentleman’s Entry : Hopes Dashed

Here are my thoughts on the great hoped for correction in the HUI. Rambus drew out a great playbook observation card last night from a technical perspective, and here is what I see from a market history and psychological perspective. We all know we have a slew of gold bull wannabes that want into this bull trend in the worst way, but at yesterdays prices. They have lusted for a bull market in the PM stocks and have chased false bottoms all the way down in the bear market. So here we are now in an established uptrend and they find themselves on the sidelines or grossly underinvested. Thanks to the great advice of their preferred gold bug Gurus!

So the ulcers have been building on the sidelines watching the train leave the station. They need a “correction” or secondary reaction in the worst of ways. But here is the thing, a secondary reaction comes after everyone has gotten aboard the boat and are leaning over on the bullish side. It comes not when it is wanted or expected. It comes when the consensus is that prices must now advance higher. Clearly it is wanted now more than I have ever seen before, so I suspect that what we have seen is simply normal market breathing action. We might have even attracted some short positioning which may turn into a religious experience in short order to those positioned if we can run-up to a new high in the HUI. The bull has no desire accommodating these sidelined sympathizers, in fact he relishes seeing them looking from the outside in with hollow eyes.

p1p2p3

I suspect the mini pull back is over

Ashes to Ashes

DUST to

DUST

BioTech Short BIS

My BIS BioTech short is looking sweet here. 😉

I got in at 37 and will take profits when it breaks my small green trend line or perhaps my Blue Fork.

BIS

Energy – Offshore Drilling Contractors

Again, I really like the energy space here and I think many of the deep offshore drillers got overly punished (massive capitulation) late last year and into early 2016 which is simply opportunity in my eyes. The charts are really shaping up now. ATW is great example:

ATW

GOLD 1hr GAP

USDJPY backtesting 106.80, USD backtesting 93.70. I expect they’ll pick up downward speed in the next day or 2 while gold backs and fills. Weight of evidence shows USDJPY about to go on a plunge to below 103 very soon. Unless something changes, thats the way its headed. If the facts change, I’ll change my mind.

gap5-6

RE: UVXY

Remember “pop and drop” and how UVXY likes to make flags on the way up…I am traveling; thus unable to closely monitor. Good luck!

Richmond Mines Results

Richmont Mines’ Exploration Drilling Continues to Intersect Significant Gold Mineralization at Island Gold Both Laterally and at Depth and Intersects 9.71 g/t Over 8.00 Metres at the Kremzar Mine Regional Target

http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1047-tsx/ric/19393-richmont-mines-exploration-drilling-continues-to-intersect-significant-gold-mineralization-at-island-gold-both-laterally-and-at-depth-and-intersects-9-71-g-t-over-8-00-metres-at-the-kremzar-mine-regional-target.html

USD Wolfewaves – multiple one

Usd has wolfewaves within wolfewave.

USD Daily Wolfewave

USD

Long term the trend is down (larger channel) and short term, I have a couple different Trading Cycle counts on the USD here.

LikesMoney is the Pro and he thinks the USD is in a new Daily Cycle here (my Trading Cycle) but I am less sure as our trend lines are slightly different (Bias perhaps??).

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/dollar-confirms-new-daily-cycle/

So either the USD found a Trading Cycle Low on day 30 and is bouncing or we are on day 17 and and the TC low is ahead of us (18-23 days TC Low to TC Low). I think 14 days is too short for a Trading Cycle but watch my small Red TC Downtrend line in the Blue Circle below. If my 17 day count is correct, the USD should be rejected here and move lower into a TC Low sometime next week.

Added: Second, longer term, weekly chart showing the interesting spot the USD is in with respect to my Blue line out of the top inside my fork.

Screenshot 2016-05-05 19.15.53 Screenshot 2016-05-05 19.48.27

40 Year Monthly Dollar Log Line Chart

dollar40

when THE DOLLAR BROKE THIS LONG TERM DOWN TREND I FIGUERED HERE WE GO….DEFLATION MAXIMUS

But now its below the line again and may be back testing…Lots of Month left though

A chart of this duration is best displayed in LOG form (% moves rather than Numerical)

$USD…

I have no idea which direction the $USD will take; however, this appears CRITICAL support…
FGC, has this multi-year chart already been addressed?
usd

GOLD 1hr squeal

I thought I could hear the chart squealing today around the time of the gap fill but then realized it was me. Was looking for $1267 gold yesterday. We got $1268.10 today according to Kitco ($1268.86 for Netdania). I’d like to think that was it except maybe a stop run for tomorrows morning games.

gold1hr

PM Stocks

Whether you are Bullish or Bearish…I am sure you recognize what a surprisingly Strong day this is for Miners