Loading ...Wolfe Wave
I have been reading about Wolfe waves and thought I would post what I see, anyone that knows about Wolfe waves and sees something that doesn’t look right, please speak up. We all know about the massive HnS built out in crude over the last year, I marked out the Wolfe wave so we have a price objective to look for if this plays out.
Rules for Bullish WolfeWave Structure
Please note the odd sequence in counting, as you will see, it is necessary
for the inductive analysis. By starting with a top we are assured of
beginning our count on a new wave. (The reverse would apply for a
bearish wave.)
The 2 point is a top.
The 3 point is the bottom of the first
decline.
The 1 point is the bottom prior to point
2 (top), that 3 has surpassed.
The 4 point is the top of the rally after
point 3.
The 5 point is the bottom after point 4
and is likely to exceed the extended
trend line of 1 to 3. This is the entry point for a ride to the EPA line (1 to 4).
Estimated Price at Arrival (EPA) is trend line of 1 to 4 at apex of extended
trend line of 1 to 3 and extended trend line of 2 to 4.
Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is apex of extended trend line of 1 to 3 and
2 to 4.
![images[7]](http://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/images7.jpg)
Here is crude tonight, on a smaller scale we have a possible Wolfe wave in play right now, $38-$39
Cheers
Hi Randy,
Generally speaking, I mostly disagree with such analysis, where the price depends mainly on external factors.
If you compare $WTIC and $USD, you can immediately notice that they are totally running in opposite phase:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=M&b=3&g=0&id=p02178915244
So for example, if China decides to devaluate Yuan, or $XEU dropping for political reasons (ie Grexit), then USD will climb to the sky and Oil drop dramatically.
It is why I am very reluctant to base my decisions on such graphical signs, just only one idea to consider and to be confirmed, not more.
Hi Rozaka, I appreciate your feed back. I am just posting what looks like a Wolfe wave, it is just TA and many ways to read a chart. As Yoda would say…..use or use not. Martin Armstrong refers to the external factors as static, that’s from him, not me.
Thanks
Nice article on Wolfe waves. I like the diagram.
I am looking at the formations to see if the two downlegs 2-3 and 4-5 are equal. That would then make the 1-4 line the median line of an Andrews pitchfork also.
That’s also what takes point 5 outside of the wedge formation because leg 4-5 would need generally to be shorter than 2-3 to fit inside the wedge. Of course, moves can very in time length but inside a wedge, generally the highs and lows get closer in time and in price as you move to the apex.
Like on your first crude oil chart, your legs 2-3 and 4-5 are very close to equal (4 was a double touch on the line, take it form the 2nd touch.
I wonder how this fits in with Elliott waves and Tridetn Trading, if at all. It seems to fit in with median line analysis anyway.
http://goldtadise.com/?p=362503
If the second (small) Wolfe wave acts correctly, then oil might not go down to touch point 5 a second time on the big one. It might just go up instead.
yes, I would prefer it to turn now, lol. I just put that in to show possible support.
Love me some good Wolfe Waves… Sometimes they can be sloppy, and sometimes they can be crystal clear. I will always always always take a crystal clear Wolfe Wave trade. When I say sloppy vs clear, a ood analogy would be a sloping head and shoulders vs one with a parallel neck line. Please keep doing work on these bc I really like the pattern.
The Wolfe wave is now on my mind every time I look at a formation, hopefully they will be prosperous for us all.