I was taking a look yesterday at a chart I posted back in Sept when I was suggesting a move to $18 could be in the making while the GDX was hovering just above $13. Many thought I was nuts. There were calls then for a stock market crash that would take the miners down with it. Of course the stock market rallies 10% from there and GDX prices ran a little north of $17 but the move was substantially as I expected. I don’t know if the stock market will crash from here but the set up for a hard downturn is far better today than it was in late Sept yet nobody is talking about that. Instead I see calls for parabolic rises in the stock market and tradable bottoms for the GDX….I’m definitely not in that camp!

Back to the GDX chart, I dropped my TL a bit, suggesting the May 2015 island was a headfake and I like this fit. So I’ve charted out a proposed path that purposely integrates MA’s benchmarks but also fits what I’m seeing in this chart’s structure. What immediately struck me is how similar the blue highlighted areas look. It really looks like a swift move down into Dec will fit well fractally from here. The rise from there may be a hard bounce or take on a bearish flag ahead of another parabolic decline late spring into the final lows around $10.50, similar to the structure from May to Aug this year. I like the fit….now let’s just see what happens.

GDX