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In my mind the proof of whether the S&P has re-established the uptrend will be when the 20MA on the monthly is regained as support. We wont know until Nov 1 and current prices are almost right on the 20MA. Risk/reward favors selling this area with a stop on a monthly close above the 20MA. This is my chart from late Aug. Funny how we all agreed when prices were plunging in Aug that any backtest would be a screaming sell. Now that we are there everyone is oozing bullishness. Alas, classic market sentiment 😉
Mark, nice chart. I’m not sure everyone is bullish here. Norvast and I are both expecting a cycle low for stocks sometime over the next two weeks. I sold all my longs Thursday and Friday and have started a very small short position that I will build on based on how the market moves next week.
Surf – that cycle timing matches up well with my take on the charts structure-wise. Your timing for a gold/GDX swing low around Oct 1-2 was spot on and fit my charts too. I could certainly see a scenario where the S&P starts pulling back as soon as tomorrow while gold may continue to grind higher. I think the GDX will primarily follow the S&P unless we get more $20 up days in gold this week. Your contributions are very helpful!
I agree with Mark SurfCity…keep posting your cycle work here…it is unique