Thanks Bikoo for the ratio chart you shared as a comment to my silver post. You know, I also subscribed to the premise that silver led but curiously I had never bothered to chart the ratio. I have no clue why. I decided to test the premise and plot GDX behind price. Sure enough the correlation is solid. I shaded in red the periods immediately after the ratio started falling. I also noticed some interesting channel behavior that forms some structure to the ratio. I created my own version of the chart below. Yes, if the ratio behavior holds true, the GDX should begin falling soon.

Ratio