Expectations are Too High for Gold & Miner Bounce
While reading all these commentators call for the likes of 40% rises in gold before year end and that we should be preparing our gold stock shopping list, I decided to look at some charts. My conclusion is that we are a long way from a meaningful bottom that will start an actual trend change. In fact I think any decent bounces we get for the rest of the year (at least) will be great shorting opportunities. I even think $1,100 gold may now be a resistance level….we will see. Even if gold just stays at $1,100, the miners should still rally a bit but I will be poised to jump on the short train following any decent bounce. Take a look at the HUI chart I developed in Feb below:
I’m looking for a solid 3 drives to start carving a bottom donw around 80 or may be lower. These analysts who think we are in the midst of some V shaped bottom are delusional IMO. The $CRB has completely broken support and the $USD chart is busting out of another bullish flag on the monthly chart. I think the HUI still gets cut another 50% from current levels but it will be much trickier to trade than that softball we were handed over the past month or two. Lot’s of chop and it will frustrate many. Now is the time to be a short term trader in the metals market I believe. Don’t fight this trend! ….not just yet.
Just my opinion and 2 cents……………….
I am thinking maybe a 1/2 gap fill on GDX Daily before continuing down to fulfill the 3 drives lower…dead cat bounce then continuing down with the trend…
potential fork in gold showing a lot of resonance with a symmetrical move
http://schrts.co/3NCoJz
So the price of gold drops from $1200 to $1100 between May and July and the GDX plunges from 21 to 13. What happens when gold drops to $900 or lower and mines start filing BK? This isn’t over yet.
Mark Excellent Work
Agree 100%
I cant believe all the BULL calls out there this weekend
These guys are like cockroaches not just ordinary bugs
Cant kill them…but until there are no more of these types of calls
Down …Down…Down…
Grin !
Man get a grip please…that’s the kind of chart we used to post here in the Old Days
IMHO that Fork is completely arbitrary
sheesh
Looking at your chart if we break over 1100 which you think unlikely, would this not however be a channel bust with a possible target of 1300?
rgds AB