While reading all these commentators call for the likes of 40% rises in gold before year end and that we should be preparing our gold stock shopping list, I decided to look at some charts.  My conclusion is that we are a long way from a meaningful bottom that will start an actual trend change.  In fact I think any decent bounces we get for the rest of the year (at least) will be great shorting opportunities.  I even think $1,100 gold may now be a resistance level….we will see.  Even if gold just stays at $1,100, the miners should still rally a bit but I will be poised to jump on the short train following any decent bounce.  Take a look at the HUI chart I developed in Feb below:

HUI

I’m looking for a solid 3 drives to start carving a bottom donw around 80 or may be lower.  These analysts who think we are in the midst of some V shaped bottom are delusional IMO.  The $CRB has completely broken support and the $USD chart is busting out of another bullish flag on the monthly chart.  I think the HUI still gets cut another 50% from current levels but it will be much trickier to trade than that softball we were handed over the past month or two.  Lot’s of chop and it will frustrate many.  Now is the time to be a short term trader in the metals market I believe.  Don’t fight this trend!  ….not just yet.

Gold

Just my opinion and 2 cents……………….