Loading ...even if the Fed were to begin tightening as early as September, the historical record would suggest that the next downturn would not start until the third quarter of 2018…
http://www.businessinsider.com/duration-of-us-economic-expansions-since-the-1850s-2015-4
From the article: “The US economy is in its 69th month of expansion, making it the 6th longest period of economic growth since the 1850s.”
My comment: The Fed funds rate is also in its 75th month of ZIRP, making it the only period of ZIRP ever, the longest period the Fed has ever gone without a rate hike, and the longest period the Fed has ever kept the Fed funds target rate unchanged. Coincidence? And having considered all of this, it is still too early to end ZIRP this coming June.
Do you ever wonder why none of these big fund managers seem to consider the idea that, given their intense fear of deflation and stock market instability, the Fed may be stuck with no other option but to push the nation into an inflationary black hole?