Chartologists have had a great learning laboratory over the last 4 years to witness up close and personal a bear market. My lesson learned is I don’t want to play in them. Earning money on the downside is just too intense and hard. Better to just monitor from the sidelines and go find a bull to go long in. The time will come when it pays to enter long. In fact great family fortunes are made this way. The psychology is fascinating to observe. My premise is we are in the early stages of a bear market in oil. We are in Pre-POR phase II. So we watch investors speculate down the slope of hope that we are near a bottom. We have seen this process in the gold market since 2011. Interesting article here about US storage capacity. One can see that if it plays out as noted this could provide a downward impulse in the oil market. Maybe a POR of sorts?
Here is a longterm chart of oil and the XLE with a theretical projection of what may lie ahead. Of course I don’t have any pretense of how this actually plays out but consistant with My bear market phases this is the concept:
The gold bear market is the model for this advanced 3 years ahead