Stock Market (SPX) update

Here is a post that I sent out last night, indicating that the SPX should be very close to topping in this Trading Cycle based on Time and overbought indicators. Check out my last chart on UVXY.

Stock Market Cycle Update

Gold and Miners Cycles Update

Posted last night

US Dollar and Gold : Battle of the Cycles

Buying at Major Cycle Lows

Is really what Surf City Cycles is all about.

Do you remember this post on Gold in late December? Did you have the courage to pull the trigger?

Lets take a look at another example today with Cocoa (NIB) which is very likely bouncing out of a 6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). The Blue arrows, at 6 month intervals show my Intermediate Cycle Lows on the chart.

This is not a trade I took for my service as NIB trades, on average, only 57K shares a day. Simply not enough liquidity but I pointed it out for members who might trade futures. In any case, the chart illustrates how I spot what are likely major cycle lows (i.e. 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Lows).

Take a look at my chart on NIB. Talk about trying to catch a falling knife…

Why would anyone buy this piece of sh%@t here. Time, Volume and Price action, that is why. 😉

Again, Cocoa is very much in a nasty Bear Market (i.e. clearly Stage 4 Bear in Weinstein’s book) so it is risky and the volume on NIB is not sufficient for any service. That said, bounces out of major Intermediate Lows, even in a bear market, can often move higher for a month or two.

Gold Miners Ratio

In Gold miners, the Juniors to Majors ratio is an interesting one to follow using GDXJ:GDX

During the Long Bear, the Junior were beaten up more severely than the Majors. My chart shows this from 2011 until early 2016 when the Juniors broke out of the downtrend. If the Bull has resumed, one would expect this trend to continue. Note the picture perfect backtest at the late December Yearly Cycle Low followed by a strong bounce thus far… 😉

Blast from the Past

Compare today’s Gold Chart with the 2nd chart in the link below from my December 29, 2016 post on Gold where I stated that this was very likely the Yearly Cycle Low (YCL).

Most felt Gold was toast… Who would buy Gold and the Miners here??? Who, in their right mind, would show a Fork with an uptrend channel started on Dec 29 near the YCL???

A Cycle Guy that’s who… 😉

Second chart is on PVG, one of my favorite miners that I bought near the lows.

Here is a free post on my current thinking.

CRB Deep Dive

Here you go.

CRB Deep Dive

Gold Cycle Update

PM Complex Positions

PM Complex Positions

Todays Cycle updates

Tuesday Cycle Updates