Uranium – larger update

I have had a weekly close below my support line for my gigantic monthly falling wedge as my measure for if we have a new bull market in uranium or not. This week we got that close, a weekly close below that support line. This is serious. But is the sector down and out? No, I do not think so and I will here try to explain why not and how I see it.

On further inspection of the charts it looks like price when BT this major support line is choosing to use both my mentioned main support line for my gigantic monthly falling wedge, and also one of the important trend lines that I have had in my charts. And this important trend line is the main reason why I do not think the sector is down and out. Other reasons being changed necklines for my DBs and also that my weekly charts for the leaders are looking great still.

Alright, above you have my thinking in broad terms, now let´s turn those words into charts. Many indicators are looking very good but I will not comment on that for each and every chart.

Let´s start with the uranium price since there is where the foundation is for the sector, here in the form of the price proxy U.TO. Keeping in mind at the same time that most miners do not sell at this price but for a much higher price based on future delivery long term deals.
Below we have my weekly and my monthly. Here we can see the important black thin trend line I mention above and which I have had on the chart all along. The weekly close below the support line of the gigantic monthly falling wedge was not great to see but as said above, I do not think this means that we are not in a new bull market still. I mean, considering how large that monthly falling wedge is it is not the end for the new bull market I think if we dip just below it as we have right now. But if price starts to drop below this important trend line with a weekly close below it, that would probably mean that we are still in Weinstein stage 4 or 1. But as long as that does not happen we are still in a new bull market for uranium as I see it.

Looking at the 2h and daily for U.TO below, I think we have a DB in the making. If we compare them with the weekly and monthly above, it is obvious that the base line for the DB is exactly where the ultimate long term important black thin trend line mentioned above is.

Moving on to the main ETF for the sector, URA, we have the 2h and daily below. The 2h looks a bit awful isolated but looking at the daily right after eases the mind. The neckline on the daily is adjusted and with the new position the chart looks very nice. Also, I think the 2h is in for an around the apex move, look at the indicators.

Looking at the weekly and monthly for URA below, with the adjusted DB neckline, we can see that all is well in uranium land. These are not charts in distress, quite the opposite.

Turning our attention now to the ratio between URA and U.TO. Below we have the daily and the weekly and they are looking more than great I would say.

Staying with my ratio charts, below we have three weekly charts showing $SPX:URA, U.TO:$CRB and U.TO:$GOLD. The two first ones are telling me that U.TO is in a new bull market and the last one needs a bit more time but I do think it will BO. Do have an extra long look at that $SPX:URA chart as it is very telling.

As a last chart group I want to look at the individual miners and my weekly charts for a couple of the leaders in the sector. All below are still looking real good I would say. The drop for Cameco this week was because of reporting losses but I do not think that is anything to worry about going forward looking at the report. I think the market has overreacted which is very common.

And if we have a look at three of my favourite micro explorers below they are looking very nice too.

So, in sum, as I see it, uranium is still in a new bull market that started in Nov 2016, when I called it to the day almost, below. The miners are looking good and U.TO is hanging on by its teeth right now. I think U.TO are in for a DB right now on the 2h and daily.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=387708

I would even say that right now is a fantastic buying opportunity, as long as my important black thin trend line on the weekly and monthly does not experience a weekly closing below it. And I do not think we will experience that. Furthermore, the charts for the leaders above would never look like they do if we were not in a new bull market for uranium, as I see it.

$NATGAS – what I am seeing

I have posted a few times on my bullish view on $NATGAS, the most recent post being here:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=395050

I still think we are in a new bull market even for natural gas. I am aware of the rising wedges but I do not think they are valid.

$WTIC – pull back seems to be over

I elaborated a bit more on my bullish view on $WTIC recently, link below:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=400882

Now I am pretty certain that this last pull back is over. I think we turn right here after having tagged MA50 on the weekly.

Notice on the chart below that we have had consistently higher lows since the very bottom back in early 2016.

And, $WTIC being on the launch pad after having finished up its BT of my larger weekly inverse h&s fits perfectly with my daily US dollar charts which are about to start dropping.

$USD is ready to start dropping and $XJY, GLD plus TLT are in sync waiting for it

$USD is still being wedged between my two h&s necklines, below. It will not be for long though as it is very, very soon about to start its first drop towards my first POs. My guess is that $USD, USDU and UUP takes out my purple necklines within two weeks at the latest, probably next week.

And have a look at the three daily charts below for GLD, $XJY and TLT. They are all in sync at this very important point in time. All are BT a c&h/DB. Just waiting for the US dollar to let go. As I said, probably next week.

I wrote earlier this week that the time has come for the currencies to resolve. And it has. I also wrote early this week that $GOLD circa 1260 will most probably hold. And it most probably will.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=401515

$USD – BT the neckline of my new h&s

Have a look at today´s candle for $USD below. That is a clear BT of the neckline for my new h&s. Let´s see for how many days it has the power left to remain between the two necklines. Not for many I would think.

From earlier today:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=401515

Currencies – The time has come

For a very long time now I have been posting on that the US dollar is going down, big time and most probably for good, from around here. I have also been posting for the last couple of weeks that the first larger drop in the US dollar is very close. I have also said that I think the Euro is driving the EURUSD move at this point. I have posted a huge amount of other stuff on the currencies and what I see but for right now, these things are key.

Two days ago I posted on the triple BOs I saw for the US dollar plus my new daily h&s, below:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=401306
I said here that it looks to me like we now have the first break down in the US dollar. And do note that these were really weekly BO, gapping.

In the post linked above I used Investing.com´s data, below is the same chart with Stockcharts. It is crystal clear I would say. Note that price now is wedged between my necklines and trend lines.
As posted two days ago in another post, the triple break downs are:
– My blue h&s
– My version of the longer term trend line from 2014 (lower dotted black trend line)
– One of the major support lines of the two year+ formation (upper dotted black trend line)

With the above in mind, a triple clear break down in the US dollar, have a look at my Euro chart below. We now have a clear BO also here for this daily chart which I have said that I have been looking for. That is one pretty decisive gap right there. This is big. Huge.

And if we have a look at the daily USDU plus UUP below they are just about to break down over the purple h&s neckline, just as $USD daily above.

Turning to the weekly charts below now. Here we have an orgie in sorry looking charts.
$USD – getting ready to take out the support line for my wedge and start dropping
USDU – this chart is classic by now, an orgie in recent bearish engulfings
UUP – just look at those symmetry gaps over the blue trend line, those did not happen by chance

And the daily JPY is about to BT the DB plus tagging EMA150, below. Probably just the latter.

So, as I have said since Jan 2016, we are very much on track, as I see it. The coming moves in the US dollar and the Euro will straighten up the pm charts, as I have said before. Also, the moves are now starting to confirm every single one of my charts.

ADDED:
As said for a long time now, looking for 97 and 95,5 as my first POs for $USD. And with my new h&s on the daily, we can add 94 also to the list, below.

LINKS – Recent, longer and still very valid posts

Why the $USD has halted at this level:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=395814

My main posts so far on US dollar and $EURUSD/$XEU, with big picture charts:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=392891

Where we are going for the $CRB + $XAU:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=391730

$GOLD is leading the commodity complex:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=395593

$GOLD´s reversal patterns, short to ultimate long term:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=391935

My take on the commodities in general:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=397688

$SILVER´s reversal patterns, short to ultimate long term:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=399069

$WTIC – My take on oil, short to ultimate long term:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=400882

US dollar – new h&s BO

I have had my eye on this one but never posted it earlier.

Today, as I see it, we got three BOs:
– The blue h&s below broke down
– The longer term trend line from 2014 gave way, black thin line
– And one of the major support lines of the two year+ formation gave way; in the link below

https://goldtadise.com/?p=401306

US dollar – looks like we now have the first break down

The currencies plus gold are a bit all over the place this morning CET. What caught my eye especially is this very possible break down in the US dollar.

It very much looks to me as if it made a weekly gap down today and with that gapped the longer term trend line from 2014, see weekly and daily below. And on the weekly we can see that it simultaneously just might have gapped one of the major support lines for the two year+ formation. On the five hour below we can see that we now also have two pretty symmetrical gaps on either side of the formation I have labelled as a FBO all along.

This looks to be significant to me. It does look like we now have our first break down in the US dollar. It is very clear that right now is an important point in time. This is what I have been looking for, let´s see what this week gives us.

Side note:
As a side note here, on gold, I think it might be looking for a date with circa 1260 in order to BT the neckline for a possible c&h, dotted black thin line below.

LINKS – Recent, longer and still very valid posts

Why the $USD has halted at this level:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=395814

My main posts so far on US dollar and $EURUSD/$XEU, shows where we are going:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=392891

Where we are going for the $CRB + $XAU:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=391730

$GOLD is leading the commodity complex:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=395593

$GOLD´s reversal patterns, short to ultimate long term:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=391935

My take on the commodities in general:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=397688

$SILVER´s reversal patterns, short to ultimate long term:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=399069

$WTIC – My take on oil, short to ultimate long term:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=400882

ADDED:
Have had my eyes on this h&s, do not think I have posted it earlier. We got the BO today, in blue.

$WTIC – elaborating a bit more on my bullish case

I thought I´d take the time to elaborate a bit more on my bullish case for $WTIC.

In my latest post on $WTIC linked below I said the price is moving away from my neckline after its BT.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=400326
And it still is but there will of course be pull backs, as always. The drop we saw yesterday was nothing out of the ordinary as $WTIC has had many drops like that. And quick drops some time after an important BT is not uncommon as some chicken out and starts thinking that the BO and BT is not real. If one looks at the weekly below it is quite clear that the drop yesterday was only a quick-after-BT-drop in order to tag the EMA30 weekly one more time before we move higher.

Starting with the daily below we can see that the drop yesterday can seem large but in the bigger scheme of things it is common price action for oil. Here I am looking for a second, larger c&h (green) that will energize an around the apex move (purple triangle), plus take out the dotted resistance line on the weekly below.

Moving on to the weekly, below. I have posted this chart before and it shows a clean cut inverse h&s that has BT. Here you can see that the drop yesterday was only in order to tag the EMA30w once more. We can also see here that it was no wonder that price stopped where it did when we see that dotted resistance line. That one also explains why the daily above turned around where it did. Also, the yearly cycles on this chart matches the major lows perfectly and shows clearly that the last yearly cycle low occurred at the BT to the neckline of my inverse h&s. Pretty stylish really.

And finally my monthly chart, below. This chart I have not posted before and it shows that $WTIC has been in a very long term bull market since 1985. The two circles negate each other so you should exclude those two movements while looking at this chart. Doing that, we have a perfect rising expanding wedge, almost a channel. And if we look at my cycles for this chart we see poetry in motion as they are as bang on as possible, excluding the two circles once again.

This chart below makes a whole lot of sense to me also for fundamental reasons but I do not have the time to write that essay right now I´m afraid, will try to do that later though.

Above I say that the $WTIC has been in an overall bull market since 1985. This makes perfect sense if we look at the US dollar chart. In the post linked below I say that it looks to me as if the US dollar has been in a bear market since 1985. This fits perfectly with the chart above. https://goldtadise.com/?p=391606

And while we are at it, let´s also have a look at XLE, below. Does it confirm my charts above for $WTIC..? Yes, I would say so. Below we have the monthly showing a 15 year bull market, which corresponds to the 15 year commodity cycle. And like we did above, exclude the two negating circles when looking at the chart. And then we have the cycles, again spot on, textbook. I also think we have a stylish inverse h&s in the making here.

The charts above tie in nicely with my roadmap post on commodities:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=397688
And my roadmap post on the $CRB plus $XAU:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=391730

And about the uncommon moves we see on some fronts right now I say that, as I have said earlier, this is a monumental shift in the currency markets right now and that makes traders run all over the place and that is what is making some charts not so logical as to what we are used to see. Most are not seeing the 15 year cycle ending for the US dollar and keeps on trading as if it is not in motion. They will keep doing that until the US dollar starts dropping through its immediate thin zone I would think, which ought to be very soon, as posted. Then I think enough traders will start to react and we will slowly see chart after chart reveal its true self. Until then we will see some charts not doing what could be expected.

And about the deflation / post bubble contraction scenario I will quote myself here from the post linked below:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=398952
“As I have said, I of course see the bullish scenario for the US dollar and I follow quite a few of those charts also. And I of course see the heavy deflation / post bubble contraction scenario, in fact, and as said, I was the biggest advocate for that scenario 1,5 years ago here. I then posted a huge number of charts for that case, including many charts for $USD going to 120 and beyond. Since the PMs resumed its bull market though back in Dec15/Jan16 I do not see this happening, I do not see it the charts and not fundamentally. It will come but not now as I see it. What I see instead is a baby inflation bull, driven by commodities, as posted.”

And, about rate hikes. I think it will take more rate hikes in order to turn around the slight increase in money velocity that I think we are starting to see right now. This would mean that interest payments will rise on nation state debts, and since there is no room for that I think that will trigger the CBs to start buying even more debt, i.e. starting up/continuing QE. Fed will start it up officially again; stealthy has been going on since the last QE “ended”. Note, this means that I do not think it will have to take massive deflation for some CBs to start printing publicly again.

So, as I have posted for many, many months now, the US dollar charts looks very bearish to me, and the $WTIC charts looks bullish to me.

And, as I have been saying, we have smaller thin zones coming up very soon for many vehicles. And we also have larger thin zones coming up within maybe six months or so. I think we are in for a historic move up on many fronts during the coming say 18 months, except for the US dollar which very much looks to be going down, hard and probably for good.

$GOLD & $SILVER

$GOLD has taken out the resistance line formed by the high of last summer plus the Trump spike. Personally, I don´t think this resistance line is very important but I am posting it since others do think that.

$SILVER is holding above my neckline for my inverse h&s.

Looking good.

And as posted countless times previously, the US dollar is going down, probably for good. It should start to drop here very soon.

ADDED:
As I have been posting about for a while now, we have thin zones all around coming up. TLT has just entered its thin zine. Many large moves coming up as I see it.