Sub 1,000

I know there is little love for Marty on this site, but both Armstrong and Edelson are calling for sub 1k gold again.  One has to admit that Armstrong has been pretty good and unwavering in the face of huge criticism.  This is how we get to those targets on many of the daily H&S… sub 1,000$ gold.  Combine this with Avi’s potential target (albeit small percent chance) for a 7 GDX and it’s just too risky to be long.  I’m out of my miners I bought a few days ago for a small chop.

I want to highlight New Gold

I have always hated this name because they fabricate their AISC with massive copper credits at New Afton but I’ve done more work on it and with this downdraft, they are in ZERO trouble.  They have sold a collar on this year’s production with a low of 1200 and high of 1400.  They get the price between 1200 and 1400… above or below they get the top or bottom of the collar.  The most interesting thing is that they have sold forward the first 6 months of next year at a range of 1300-1400 and then Rainy River comes online.  They are betting the intermediate future on Rainy River and if they don’t f*ck it up, this mine will get built and will be putting out 325k oz per year in the first quartile of costs.  These guys have a good history of brining mines to production as expected or better unlike Goldcorp, so I would expect Rainy River to be on target.  This is a name to own.  Not to mention they mine massive amounts of copper and has anyone seen copper lately?????

Also, it appears like it wants to make an undercut low false breakdown on the H&S pattern it has been building.

Something to understand from a fundamental perspective

I’ve seen the head and shoulders patterns formed… the outlines and the targets, but I want you guys to think about what has happened from a fundamental perspective during the last few years.  The best names have DELEVERED and sold garbage assets.  Think about how much debt ABX and Newmont have paid back.  Unless gold goes to 900, ABX IS NOT GOING BACK TO 6$.  Newmont is not going back to 15.  Richmont learned that their Island Gold mine is an absolutely monster and they are bringing it online soon.  When it was 3$, nobody knew this.  MUX is on the verge of tripling their cash balance and cut the shares outstanding by buying back stock at a dollar.  New Gold is nearly done with Rainy River and its the best new gold mine out there according to the numbers.  The best names ARE NOT GOING TO RETRACE THE ENTIRE MOVE UNLESS GOLD GOES TO NEW LOWS.

 

I went from owning nothing to 1/3 back in the game Friday and today.

Starting to buy NEM again here

I have been totally on the sidelines since the summer began… 32.69 gap filled today in NEM and I was waiting for that.  I bought my first lot here today 32.31.

If you guys want to buy back in or add, stick with quality and no company has been better run for the last few years than Newmont.  Avoid Goldcorp and anything that his been spun out or financed by Goldcorp since McEwen left.

I’m buying NTDOY again

sc-9

 

I was buying this name at 17 and continued to pound the table… I sold half near 30 and the other half at 38.  I took the money because I wasn’t sure that the move was real but now it appears that the move is real.  I’m not the best chart editor but it is plain to see that the move is indeed real with the Mario announcement at the Apple event.  It’s building out a classic cup and handle which is even more apparent on the 7974 Tokyo chart.  I’m buying in anticipation of the continuation which judging by my math on the pattern puts the stock at 48 on a breakout.  The best part is that this cup and handle built out of a previous downtrend and not an uptrend which makes it even more powerful.

Revisiting Nintendo… NTDOY

Something happening at Randgold – GOLD… something bad

This used to be a darling but their last 2 quarters have been nothing but outright disasters.  If they don’t hit their 2H guidance, this stock is going to rerate much much lower as it loses its premium valuation.  I’d advise caution in this name.

Buying new oil play (ship and rig fabricator) – GIFI

sc-8

 

50 mln in cash… 75mln in working capital… 125mln mkt cap… NO DEBT… just had a great quarter after being left for dead

If this thing breaks 9.19 it is going to run.  Not the best business in the world, but really deep value.

PPP down 43 percent – stay away from anything Goldcorp has ever touched

Primero bought Goldcorp’s San Dimas mine in 2010 by giving 36 percent of the company to Goldcorp… look where it got them.  Stay away from anything Goldcorp – PPP TAHO SLW… especially GG.

Refiners

Shout out to Cashcosts

 

For those of you that read this thread, I said what I am doing in the comments.  Buying PSX and refiners heavily.  They are starting to come to life and PSX just cancelled a conference on September 20.  PSX, WNR, VLO, MPC, HFC.

 

 

Revisiting Goldcorp -GG

Fake Assets – episode Goldcorp

 

Stay away from Goldcorp.  Their most recent report was a total nightmare.  Anything that has ever been touched by the “Goldcorp Gang” must be avoided.  This includes TAHO, PPP, SLW.  Just look at the underperformance of all of these names.  If the market gives us another shot to buy, DO NOT BUY THESE NAMES.  Buy The companies run by miners and class acts… RIC, NEM, AEM, MUX.